Severe Thunderstorm Warning 458, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
652 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

.AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS IN CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG
IS ACROSS MAINLY NORTH ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE NORTH. A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS
SHOULD INITIATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE
SOUTHERN MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. MAINLY VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
CURRENT FORECAST AND THINKING REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED VERSUS THIS
TIME LAST NIGHT WITH MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE. SOME TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES DO SHOW UP IN
THE FINER DETAILS...MAINLY DEALING WITH THE UPPER IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW. BEST APPROACH ONCE AGAIN WILL BE TO TRY
TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THESE IMPULSES AND BLEND
FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. CONVECTION CONTINUES AT THIS HOUR OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA BUT ACTIVITY DOES APPEAR TO
BE WEAKENING WITH TIME. WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES BEING WHAT THEY ARE
AND THE OVERALL LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY AND SHIFTING
THEM SLIGHTLY SOUTH ON FRIDAY.

LATEST THINKING IS THE FRONT WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE FINALLY BEING PUSHED INTO
NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY SATURDAY MORNING AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FINALLY KICKS IT THROUGH.

THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ADVANCING
BOUNDARY UNTIL IT FINALLY CLEARS THE STATE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SUNDAY TO
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTH SUNDAY. HIGHEST QPF WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE AND DECREASING
AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... READINGS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOC
CLOUD COVER/RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL FALL BELOW
NORMAL VALUES BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY. MAX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE MID SOUTH TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION TUESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY AND GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
PULLED INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     84  66  80  61 /  30  50  60  50
CAMDEN AR         89  66  89  66 /  10  20  20  40
HARRISON AR       81  64  77  61 /  50  60  70  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  66  87  65 /  20  30  40  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  67  86  65 /  20  30  50  40
MONTICELLO AR     89  66  89  66 /  10  10  30  30
MOUNT IDA AR      87  65  86  65 /  20  30  40  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  81  64  77  61 /  40  60  70  50
NEWPORT AR        85  66  82  61 /  30  50  60  50
PINE BLUFF AR     88  66  88  66 /  10  20  30  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   85  66  83  63 /  30  40  60  50
SEARCY AR         86  66  84  63 /  20  40  60  50
STUTTGART AR      87  66  86  65 /  20  30  40  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-281000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS TODAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
STATE. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE MOST RAINFALL WILL FALL IN THE
NORTH AND RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

51