Severe Thunderstorm Warning 455, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE THROUGH THE STATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH SCT TO WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...NON-
THUNDERSTORM WINDS OF 12-20 KTS FROM THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED...WITH
GUSTS OVER 25 KTS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE
TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH MISSOURI...TO
NEAR TULSA. LINE OF SEVERE STORMS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH SEVERE
WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEVERAL STORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL.

TRICKY FORECAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL CHANCES TONIGHT. SHORT TERM
MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ONE SOLUTION SHOWS THAT THE AREA GETS WORKED
OVER...AND LESSENS RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRENGTH AND DYNAMICS OF THIS FRONT...AND THE
HOT TEMPERATURES TODAY...WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES TONIGHT. AS FAR AS SEVERE
POTENTIAL...EXPECT STORMS TO CONVERGE INTO A LINE OR AT LEAST A
CLUSTER OF STORMS THIS EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE CONCERNS.

MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
HAVE TIMED RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO
REACH NORTHERN ARKANSAS JUST BEFORE 7 PM...CENTRAL ARKANSAS 10 PM TO
MIDNIGHT...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS MIDNIGHT TO 3 AM. MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
DID KEEP SMALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM...WITH TEMPERATURES MORE FALL LIKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE WILL BE BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...AND A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE DATA BEFORE
DECIDING ON ISSUANCE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE EXTENDED. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
TRANSITING THE CENTRAL CONUS ON THE WAY TO A FINAL RESTING PLACE
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE UPPER TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ACROSS ARKANSAS...A GENERAL
WARM UP WILL BE OBSERVED WITH HIGHS MAKING IT BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S BY WED/THU TIME FRAME. RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN KEPT
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING...HOWEVER WITH UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST AND SLOWLY SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST...RAIN CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE OFFING FOR
SATURDAY...OR JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     62  78  54  83 /  80   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         69  82  56  84 /  70  20   0   0
HARRISON AR       57  75  52  81 /  90   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    64  80  56  84 /  60  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  66  80  57  83 /  60  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     69  80  56  82 /  70  20   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      64  80  54  84 /  50  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  78  52  82 /  90   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        64  78  54  82 /  80  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     68  79  57  82 /  70  20   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   63  81  54  86 /  70   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         64  78  56  82 /  70  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      66  78  56  81 /  60  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

&&

AVIATION...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-081000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL...EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 110 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER ARKANSAS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE STATE. THERE ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LARGE HAIL AS WELL.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN ARKANSAS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS DURING THE EVENING.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...BUT CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT SOUTHERN ARKANSAS SATURDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS COOLER...
DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

28

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