Severe Thunderstorm Warning 367, NWS Little Rock, AR

978 
WWUS54 KLZK 161847
SVSLZK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
147 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

ARC005-089-161900-
/O.CON.KLZK.SV.W.0367.000000T0000Z-120816T1900Z/
BAXTER AR-MARION AR-
147 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL MARION
AND CENTRAL BAXTER COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 144 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BULL SHOALS SP...OR 3 MILES SOUTH OF
BULL SHOALS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
  MOUNTAIN HOME...      BULL SHOALS...        SHIPP...
  LAKEVIEW...           GASSVILLE...          FLIPPIN...
  FAWN PARK...          COLFAX...             CARTNEY...
  BULL SHOALS SP...     ARKAWANA...           ADVANCE...
  LONE ROCK...          COTTER...             BUFORD...
  WILD HOG MTN...       WHITEVILLE...        
  WESTERN HILLS SUBDVN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3632 9275 3639 9272 3642 9264 3639 9226
      3613 9233
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 282DEG 14KT 3633 9260

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1248 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

.AVIATION...
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE PAST HOUR SUGGESTS THAT
STORMS IN N AND CENTRAL AR THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY.
FOR NOW...WENT WITH VCTS. WILL WATCH AS THE STORMS FORM AND AMD
TAFS AS NECESSARY. EXPECT THAT CONVECTION WILL DIE OUT THIS
EVENING AND PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE SHOWING MUCH
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
SUNRISE FRI WILL CREATE PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2012/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

STILL EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION AROUND THE STATE TODAY...WITH
BEST COVERAGE UP NORTH INITIALLY. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS IN NRN SITES BUT
WILL STAY WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR KHOT...KLIT...AND KPBF AS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS...AND HAVE INCLUDED VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AT
KLLQ AND KBPK 06Z ONWARD. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR...THOUGH
STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2012/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF CONVECTION TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ANY CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS. TEMPS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. WILD FIRE DANGER CONTINUES TO BE HIGH
TO EXTREME DUE TO ON GOING DROUGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE WEAK WARM FRONT FROM AROUND KFSM TO NEAR
KLIT AND SE TO AROUND KLLQ. ATMOSPHERE IS WARMER AND MORE MOIST
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE LESS AND COOLER NORTH. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING
HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE UP NOW TO 1.56 INCHES...WITH A SE TO SW
SURFACE TO 5K FT WIND WITH WARM ADVECTION. ONLY PATCHY CLOUDS WERE
SEEN THIS EARLY MORNING...WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS MOVING OVER
IA WITH CONVECTION AND OVER N TX WITH CONVECTION.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

OVERALL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING WITH LIMITED
SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER AR. POP CHANCES GO UP OVER NORTHERN AR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL EXPECTED SHORT WAVE ENERGY AS THE
FRONT POSSIBLY LIFTS NORTH. RAISED TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND IF THE BOUNDARY STAYS
OVER CENTRAL AR. BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
THE FRONT SAGS SE INTO AR...AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS AR WITH THE UPPER NW FLOW. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SEVERE
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER ENERGY THIS
EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT. WIND AND HAIL MAIN THREATS. ON FRIDAY
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED SLOWLY SAG INTO CENTRAL AR WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
SAG SOUTH TO SOUTHERN AR FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
CONTINUED CONVECTION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN LA
TOWARD LATER SATURDAY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF FRONT.
MODELS DO DRIFT THE FRONT TO NEAR NORTHERN LA BY SUNDAY MORNING
TAKING MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WITH IT. BUT ALSO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE KEPT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AR. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES TO ABOVE NORMAL IN
AREAS THAT SEE SUN...WHILE AREAS WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...BELOW
NORMAL.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A MOSTLY DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL FORECAST REMAINS INTACT FOR THE
LONG TERM. UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LARGELY OUT OF THE NORTH. WITH LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF
AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE FORECAST IS A DRY ONE. A COUPLE OF
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SOME INCREASED HIGH
CLOUDS BUT OVERALL MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     93  67  85  61 /  20  50  50  20
CAMDEN AR         94  69  92  67 /  20  20  50  60
HARRISON AR       96  64  82  58 /  40  50  50  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    94  69  90  66 /  20  30  50  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  94  71  88  67 /  20  30  50  40
MONTICELLO AR     94  70  91  68 /  20  20  50  60
MOUNT IDA AR      94  68  91  64 /  20  30  50  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  95  65  83  59 /  30  50  50  20
NEWPORT AR        93  69  86  63 /  20  50  50  20
PINE BLUFF AR     93  71  89  67 /  20  30  50  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   94  69  88  65 /  20  40  40  20
SEARCY AR         94  70  86  65 /  20  40  50  30
STUTTGART AR      94  71  88  66 /  20  30  50  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
916 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-171015-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
916 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT...PRIMARILY...NORTHERN
ARKANSAS TODAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
THE STATE FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE STATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FLARE BACK UP DURING BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. AGAIN...SOME STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT COULD LINGER IN THE STATE INTO SATURDAY.
IF THIS HAPPENS...THERE COULD BE A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT SPOTTER
ACTIVATION.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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