Severe Thunderstorm Warning 337, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
220 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AND ANY THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SUNDAY TO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE WILD FIRE
DANGER CONTINUES TO BE HIGH TO EXTREME DUE TO OVERALL DROUGHT AND
DRY FUELS.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS
SOUTH AND IS NEAR THE AR AND MO STATE LINE...THEN OVER NE OK. A
SURFACE LOW WAS TRYING TO FORM OVER WESTERN AR BUT NOT A STRONG
ONE BY ANY MEASURE. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR WITH A NW TO NE FLOW...WHILE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...A S TO SW
FLOW WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S CENTRAL TO LOWER 70S OVER
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. TEMPS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 90S. AMOUNT OF LIFT
WITH FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS KEY TO AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING. JET DYNAMICS ARE MARGINAL WITH MAIN
UPPER DIFFLUENCE PUSHED WELL EAST AND LOW LEVEL JET IS WEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

WILL START THE FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AR...WHILE A CHANCE CENTRAL AND SOUTH THIS EVENING. AFTER CONVECTION
INITIATION WILL HAVE TO FINE TUNE COVERAGE AND AMOUNT WITH
POSSIBLE UPDATE. SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE AREA DUE TO AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AR A BIT LATER THIS EVENING. MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH LESSER HAIL THREAT. AS THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTH TONIGHT...CONVECTION CHANCES GO WITH IT AND POP TREND SHOWS
THIS. ON FRIDAY SOME LINGERING CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHERN AR BUT
THIS CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTH OUT OF AR. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS THEN FILTERS INTO AR AND LOWERS TEMPS A BIT BELOW
TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES. THE SURFACE RIDGE THEN GRADUALLY MOVES
EAST INTO SUNDAY...WHILE SOME RETURN FLOW COMES BACK TO AR ON
SUNDAY. THEN NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MATERIALIZES LATE SUNDAY AS THE
WEAK FRONT LIFTS AS A WARM FRONT AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE LESS AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD THAN
HAS BEEN SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. NAMELY THE DISAGREEMENT IS IN
HOW LONG THE MODELS HOLD ONTO THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT IS CURRENTLY
UNDER WAY AS THE MEAN RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD. THE GFS HOLDS ON TO
THIS PATTERN CHANGE AND BRINGS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE AREA
IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE EURO BUILDS THE RIDGE EASTWARD BY LATE TUESDAY
EVENING.

HAVING SAID THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...THOUGH POSSIBLY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS IF YOU BUY THE EUROPEAN. THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
ARE PRESENT...MOST GUIDANCE AGREES UPON BRINGING AN INITIAL
DISTURBANCE THROUGH ON MONDAY. DID LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY B/C OF TIMING DIFFERENCES THOUGH...THEN LEFT SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST MON NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE/FRONT
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. FOR EACH SUBSEQUENT DAY...HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED
20 POPS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND NO MENTION OF RAIN AT NIGHT. WHETHER
YOU BELIEVE THE GFS OR THE WARMER EURO...SUMMERTIME CONVECTION WOULD
BE POSSIBLE ANY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  87  62  88 /  20  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         74  93  66  92 /  30  10  10   0
HARRISON AR       65  84  59  86 /  10   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  92  64  91 /  20  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  89  66  88 /  30  10  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     75  91  66  90 /  40  20  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      70  91  64  91 /  20  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  85  60  87 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        70  86  64  87 /  30  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     74  90  66  88 /  30  10  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  90  64  90 /  20  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         71  87  64  87 /  30  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      72  87  66  87 /  30  10  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT THU AUG 9 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-101000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT THU AUG 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS.

EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BRING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...AND FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN
EXTREME.

FIRE DANGER REMAINS EXTREME ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE DUE TO THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. BURN BANS ARE IN PLACE IN MANY COUNTIES
OF ARKANSAS...AND ANY UNCONTROLLED OR ACCIDENTAL FIRE COULD QUICKLY
GROW OUT OF CONTROL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

58

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
419 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2012

ARZ040-092150-
POLK AR-
419 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM CDT...

AT 416 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WICKES...OR 16 MILES NORTH
OF DE QUEEN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WICKES...             GRANNIS...            BOGG SPRINGS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3422 9447 3432 9448 3435 9434 3419 9428
      3418 9435 3419 9447 3419 9448 3421 9448
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 306DEG 22KT 3425 9441

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