Severe Thunderstorm Warning 336, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
225 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF CONVECTION AND
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THEN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS. WILD FIRE
CONCERNS REMAIN.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN TO CENTRAL
AREAS...WITH THE BEST OVER THE WEST AREAS DUE TO THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY. A FEW STORMS HAVE
BECOME SEVERE. IN PLACE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS FUELED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...JUST A BIT DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. ALSO FIRE
DANGER REMAINS HIGH...AS WELL AS SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GO
OVER 100 TO NEAR 105 IN SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS THIS EVENING TO EARLY NIGHT IN THE
WEST TO WEST CENTRAL...WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EAST. TONIGHT
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER WEST TO CENTRAL WITH THE
WEAK BOUNDARY AND UPPER SHORT WAVE. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE
MAINLY OVER THE WEST. THE WEAK FRONT WILL BE MAINLY A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH AS THE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS BECOMES ORGANIZED INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THURSDAY DURING THE DAY...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER MID WEST
PULLS EAST. ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
AR IN THE UPPER NW FLOW. A RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO IN PLACE FACTORS. CURRENT ECMWF
TIMING MOST IN LINE WITH TRENDS. LATER THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
MORNING...CONVECTION SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AND MOVING SE OUT OF
AR. OVERALL A DRY DAY FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL
VALUES ARE EXPECTED. DRY SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS TO THE
WEST OF ARKANSAS...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERHEAD AND JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...PERHAPS WARMING BACK TO...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM. THAT BEING SAID...GUIDANCE
IS NOT IN PERFECT AGREEMENT. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE DESCRIBED UPPER
FLOW REGIME...WHILE THE EUROPEAN BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD
TOWARDS ARKANSAS BY TUE/WED NEXT WEEK. LIKEWISE THE GFS IS COOLER
AND FEATURES MORE RAIN CHANCES AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION...WHEREAS THE EURO IS DRIER AND HOTTER. WENT MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD FOR NOW...WITH ONLY 15-20 POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND TEMPS AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  95  71  89 /  30  30  20  10
CAMDEN AR         75  95  74  95 /  40  40  20  10
HARRISON AR       70  94  66  85 /  50  20  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  95  73  93 /  60  30  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  96  74  92 /  30  30  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     75  94  74  93 /  30  40  30  10
MOUNT IDA AR      72  95  72  93 /  60  30  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  95  67  87 /  40  30  10   0
NEWPORT AR        72  95  71  89 /  30  30  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     74  94  74  92 /  30  40  30  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71 100  72  92 /  60  30  10  10
SEARCY AR         72  94  73  91 /  30  30  20  10
STUTTGART AR      74  94  73  91 /  30  30  30  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
923 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-091000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
923 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR
TWO. IN SUCH A CASE...DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR 100 DEGREES...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RANGING FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

FIRE DANGER REMAINS EXTREME ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE DUE TO THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. BURN BANS ARE IN PLACE IN MANY COUNTIES
OF ARKANSAS...AND ANY UNCONTROLLED OR ACCIDENTAL FIRE COULD QUICKLY
GROW OUT OF CONTROL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING IT. AGAIN...MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREATS FROM SUCH STORMS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY...SO EXTREME WILDFIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY...COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

58

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
429 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE GURDON            33.94N 93.13W
08/08/2012                   CLARK              AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ALONG HWY 53 NORTH OF
            GURDON NEAR SMITHTON.

&&

MCLAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
436 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

ARZ053-062-066-082205-
CLARK AR-DALLAS AR-OUACHITA AR-
436 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OUACHITA...
SOUTHWESTERN DALLAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM
CDT...

AT 432 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES EAST OF WHELEN SPRINGS...OR 18 MILES
SOUTH OF ARKADELPHIA...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SPARKMAN...           LUNET...              VADEN...
  TATES BLUFF...        OUACHITA...           TRACE...
  SMEAD...              SHAKERTOWN...         SAYRE...
  RED SPRINGS...        MCGILL FORD...        KANSAS...
  COPELAND RIDGE...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3401 9280 3375 9276 3375 9309 3396 9310
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 270DEG 5KT 3387 9298

62

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
446 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

ARZ039-044-082215-
PERRY AR-PULASKI AR-
446 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PULASKI AND EASTERN
PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 444 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HARRIS BRAKE...OR 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PERRYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WILLIAMS JUNCTION...  HARRIS BRAKE...       WYE MTN...
  WYE...                NEW DIXIE...          BIGELOW...
  ANTIOCH...            MOYER MTN...          GRAYTOWN...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3504 9261 3486 9262 3488 9281 3501 9279
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 275DEG 6KT 3496 9272

62

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
447 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

ARZ031-032-039-082215-
CONWAY AR-FAULKNER AR-PERRY AR-
447 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PERRY...
SOUTHERN FAULKNER AND SOUTHEASTERN CONWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM
CDT...

AT 444 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CONWAY.  THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CONWAY...             WOOSTER...            SPRINGHILL...
  PICKLES GAP...        LAKE CONWAY...        SALTILLO...
  HOLLAND...            HAMLET...             BEAVER FORK LAKE...
  SKUNK HOLLOW...       ROUND MTN...          LINDER...
  GOLD CREEK...         GLEASON...            BILLY GOAT HILL...
  BERYL...              BELK...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 118 AND 135.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3520 9222 3496 9223 3499 9257 3522 9254
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 322DEG 2KT 3508 9243

62

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