Severe Thunderstorm Warning 301, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
323 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

CONVECTION JUST DEVELOPED IN THE PAST HOUR...ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AS WELL...LEFT OVER FROM COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN...WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN WITH SUNSET...BUT SCATTERED RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WHILE STILL IN
THE 90S...WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST.

READINGS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER WEDNESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE AN MCS DEVELOP
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AND HAVE KEPT A SMALL RAIN CHANCE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE OVERALL UPR AIR PATTERN IS NOT FCST TO CHG MUCH THRU THE
PD...WITH AN UPR RDG OVR THE ROCKIES AND A TROF IN THE EAST. THIS WL
KEEP A NWLY FLOW IN PLACE...WITH SEVERAL UPR IMPULSES PROGGED TO
DROP SEWD ACRS THE FA.

A FNTL BNDRY WL BE SITUATED ACRS THE FA AT THE START OF PD AND IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT NWD AND CONT WEAKENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHRA/TSRA ON THU...WITH JUST A SLGT CHC POP MENTIONED. MOISTURE WL
BE BACK ON THE INCRS BY NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER CDFNT APCHS FM THE
NW. INDCD SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW AND SEE MODELS RMN CONSISTENT IN THE
COMING DAYS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FM MOS TEMPS THRU THE PD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-061000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY IN MOST AREAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AND BRING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 95 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS.

THE WILDFIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH TO EXTREME TODAY DUE TO THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. BURN BANS ARE IN PLACE OVER MOST
COUNTIES OF ARKANSAS AND BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE BY LATE
MONDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE REGAINING CONTROL OVER ARKANSAS. SMALL
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATER IN THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS STATES.

THE WILDFIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH TO EXTREME THROUGHOUT THE WORK
WEEK. RAINFALL THAT DOES OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT ON THE CURRENT DROUGHT SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

51

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
253 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

ARZ044-052040-
PULASKI AR-
253 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTY UNTIL 345
PM CDT...

AT 250 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
A THUNDERSTORM WAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
OLMSTEAD...OR NEAR SHERWOOD...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SHERWOOD...           N LITTLE ROCK ARPT... NORTH LITTLE ROCK...
  DWNTWN LITTLE ROCK... LITTLE ROCK ARPT...   SYLVAN HILLS...
  PROTHRO JUNCTION...   MCALMONT...           LEVY...
  LAKEWOOD...           GRAVEL RIDGE...       CAMP ROBINSON...
  BURNS PARK...         ARGENTA...            ROSE CITY...
  MACON...              CAMMACK VILLAGE...    WAR MEMORIAL PARK...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 140 AND 142.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 148 AND 160.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 440 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 7 AND 14.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 630 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 5.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3473 9214 3474 9236 3493 9231 3492 9216
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 003DEG 10KT 3489 9224

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
256 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

ARZ043-054-052025-
HOT SPRING AR-SALINE AR-
256 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SALINE AND EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN HOT SPRING COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 254 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
A THUNDERSTORM WAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF BENTON...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BENTON...             HASKELL...            WOODLAND HILLS...
  GRAPE...              CROWS...              CONGO...
  BAUXITE...            AVILLA...             RUBICON...
  LENA...               KENTUCKY...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 108 AND 121.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3453 9247 3445 9269 3464 9279 3471 9259
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 337DEG 9KT 3459 9265

58

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
305 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     HAIL             HOT SPRINGS             34.49N 93.05W
08/05/2012  M1.00 INCH       GARLAND            AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL REPORTED IN DOWNTOWN HOT SPRINGS.

&&

224

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
306 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOT SPRINGS             34.49N 93.05W
08/05/2012                   GARLAND            AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE LIMBS REPORTED DOWN IN HOT SPRINGS.

&&

224

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
328 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W MAGNET COVE         34.45N 92.87W
08/05/2012                   HOT SPRING         AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN.

&&

224

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