Severe Thunderstorm Warning 278, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
327 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FEW STORMS POPPING UP FROM HARRISON AND MOUNTAIN HOME SOUTHWARD
TOWARD MOUNT IDA...HOT SPRINGS AND BENTON. OTHERWISE...IT HAS
BEEN ANOTHER DRY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHEAST WIND HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
FROM WARMING AS MUCH AS SATURDAY IN MOST AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE IN THE NEAR TERM. UNDER THE HIGH...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONLY ISOLATED PRECIPITATION.

ON MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
THIS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER GIVEN DRY VEGETATION/CONTINUING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT/GRAPHICAST TO
ADDRESS ISSUE.

IT WILL BE EXCESSIVELY HOT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 105 DEGREES.
KEPT A HEAT ADVISORY POSTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN MOST AREAS.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE HIGH MAY NUDGE TOWARD THE ROCKIES
A BIT. A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING A WEAK STORM SYSTEM
OR TWO...AND CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HOT EITHER.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN TO
CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE WESTERN PLAINS IN THE EXTENDED. THIS WOULD
STILL KEEP TEMPS HOT OVER AR...BUT WITH SOME NW UPPER FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY BRING SOME CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TO THE REGION. IN PLACE MOIST...HOT AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...WILL
HELP CONVECTION POTENTIAL. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT TO CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING..AND
MAINLY CENTRAL TO EASTERN AREAS. AT THIS TIME THIS LOOKS GOOD AND
WILL NOT CHANGE. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO SUNDAY FORECAST BASED ON
MODEL TRENDS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUMMER LIKE WITH 90S TO SEVERAL
READINGS AROUND 100 DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75 103  75 102 /  10  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         76 104  76 103 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       77 104  77 103 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    76 106  76 105 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78 107  78 106 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     75 102  75 101 /  10  20  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      75 106  75 105 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  75 105  75 104 /  10  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        76 103  76 102 /  10  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     77 104  77 103 /  10  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   75 108  75 107 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         77 105  77 104 /  10  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      77 104  77 103 /  10  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BAXTER-
BOONE-CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-NEWTON-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...59

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1059 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-301100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALTHEIMER...AMITY...ARKADELPHIA...
ARKANSAS CITY...ASH FLAT...AUGUSTA...AVILLA...BATESVILLE...
BAUXITE...BEARDEN...BEE BRANCH...BEEBE...BENTON...BISMARCK...
BONNERDALE...BOONEVILLE...BRINKLEY...BRYANT...BULL SHOALS...
CABOT...CALICO ROCK...CAMDEN...CAVE CITY...CENTER RIDGE...
CHIDESTER...CLARENDON...CLARKSVILLE...CLINTON...CONWAY...
COTTON PLANT...DANVILLE...DARDANELLE...DE VALLS BLUFF...DE WITT...
DEER...DES ARC...DONALDSON...DRASCO...DUMAS...EL PASO...ENGLAND...
FAIRFIELD BAY...FLIPPIN...FORDYCE...FOURCHE JUNCTION...
GASSVILLE...GEORGETOWN...GILLETT...GLENWOOD...GOULD...GRADY...
GRAVELLY...GREENBRIER...GREERS FERRY...GURDON...HAMPTON...HARDY...
HARRISON...HASKELL...HAZEN...HEBER SPRINGS...HECTOR...HERMITAGE...
HORSESHOE BEND...HOT SPRINGS...HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE...HOUSTON...
HUMNOKE...HUMPHREY...JACKSONVILLE...JASPER...JESSIEVILLE...
KINGSLAND...LACEY...LEAD HILL...LEOLA...LESLIE...LITTLE ROCK...
LONOKE...MALVERN...MAMMOTH SPRING...MARSHALL...MAUMELLE...
MAYFLOWER...MCCRORY...MCGEHEE...MELBOURNE...MENA...MONTICELLO...
MORO BAY...MORRILTON...MOUNT IDA...MOUNT MAGAZINE...
MOUNTAIN HOME...MOUNTAIN VIEW...MURFREESBORO...NEWPORT...
NORFORK...NORMAN...NORTH LITTLE ROCK...OIL TROUGH...OKOLONA...
OLA...OMAHA...OXFORD...OZONE...PARIS...PARON...PELSOR...
PERRYVILLE...PINE BLUFF...PINE RIDGE...PLEASANT PLAINS...POYEN...
PRATTSVILLE...REDFIELD...RISON...ROHWER...ROSE BUD...
RUSSELLVILLE...SALEM...SEARCY...SHERIDAN...SHERWOOD...STAR CITY...
STEPHENS...STUTTGART...SUMMIT...SWIFTON...THORNTON...TUCKERMAN...
VILONIA...VIOLA...WALDRON...WARREN...WESTERN GROVE...WICKES...
WRIGHTSVILLE...Y CITY...YELLVILLE
1059 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

...DANGEROUS WILDFIRE CONDITIONS IN ARKANSAS...

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. UNDER THE HIGH...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE WILL TOP 100 DEGREES. SOME AREAS WILL APPROACH OR POSSIBLY
EXCEED 110 DEGREES. AS HEATING OCCURS...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL TEND
TO MIX TO THE GROUND...AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT IN PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH.

IN ADDITION TO VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES...
VEGETATION IS BONE DRY IN MOST OF ARKANSAS. NINETY SIX PERCENT OF
THE STATE IS EXPERIENCING AT LEAST SEVERE DROUGHT...WITH EXTREME
TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT IN THREE QUARTERS OF THE STATE. THE REGION
EXPERIENCED THE DRIEST APRIL THROUGH JUNE ON RECORD...AND
BENEFICIAL RAIN HAS BEEN SPOTTY IN JULY.

WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST...AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...DANGEROUS WILDFIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. FIRES WILL TEND TO START EASILY GIVEN
LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE GRASS AND TREES. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
CAUSE ANY FIRES TO SPREAD QUICKLY.

THE ARKANSAS FORESTRY COMMISSION HAS THE ENTIRE STATE IN A HIGH
FIRE DANGER. MOST COUNTIES ARE UNDER BURN BANS...EXCEPT FOR
COUNTIES MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST.

OUTDOOR BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED IN ARKANSAS UNTIL
WIDESPREAD SUBSTANTIAL RAIN FALLS. ANY UNCONTROLLED OR ACCIDENTAL
FIRES COULD QUICKLY GROW OUT OF CONTROL.

46/224/57

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
325 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

ARZ041-042-054-292110-
GARLAND AR-HOT SPRING AR-MONTGOMERY AR-
325 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN HOT SPRING AND SOUTHWESTERN GARLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 415
PM CDT...

AT 324 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MT IDA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MT IDA...             NORMAN...             GAP CREEK REC AREA...
  WELSH...              SILVER...             HURRICANE GROVE...
  CRYSTAL SPRINGS...    BLACK SPRINGS...      WHEELER MTN...
  TWIN CREEK REC AREA...                      SWEETHOME...
  STRAWN MTN...         SHARP TOP MTN...      PEAK...
  OWLEY...              NELSON MTN...         MT IDA MUNI ARPT...
  MAZARN MTN...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3452 9333 3434 9344 3445 9371 3462 9362
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 295DEG 6KT 3450 9356

56

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