Severe Thunderstorm Warning 254, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
237 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE PULSE-TYPE
STORMS. SOME OF THE STRONGER ONES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY AS THEY COLLAPSE. THE STORMS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO
ARKANSAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. PRE-FRONTAL HEATING AND MOISTURE/
INSTABILITY POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. SIMILAR TO TODAY/S SETUP...
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...AND COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED OR SCATTERED.

DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE IN AND
STALL/WASH OUT OVER THE AREA. THE DRIER AIR WILL HANG ON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH AR JUST ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER OF THIS
RIDGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ON
MON. BEYOND THAT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BROADEN ENOUGH THAT POPS
WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF OUT FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. WHILE SOME ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...CHANCES TOO LIMITED TO MENTION PRECIP AT
THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER
70S.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     76 101  69  99 /  30  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         75  99  74  97 /  20  30  20  20
HARRISON AR       75 100  71  98 /  30  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    77 101  75  99 /  20  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  77 102  75  98 /  20  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     77  98  75  96 /  30  30  30  20
MOUNT IDA AR      75 100  70  98 /  20  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  74 100  68  98 /  30  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        76 101  69  99 /  30  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     76  99  74  96 /  20  30  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77 103  73 100 /  20  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         76 102  72  98 /  30  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      77 101  73  97 /  20  30  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-
FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
841 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-201000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
841 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH INTO AR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING. AS THIS
DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
DEVELOP...BUT WILL BE MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. SOME STORMS COULD
BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS
A GOOD PART OF THE STATE. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
WARMER WITH HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA. AS SUCH...A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WEST AND
NORTHWEST. EVEN IN THE COUNTIES WHERE THE HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT IN
EFFECT...HEAT INDICES WILL STILL LIKELY SURPASS 100 DEGREES.

THERE IS A HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER DUE TO CONTINUING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND DRY VEGETATION. MOST COUNTIES HAVE BURN BANS IN
PLACE. OUTDOOR BURNING OF ANY KIND IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DROP SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN IN HIGHER MOISTURE...WITH
AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MORE POSSIBLE.

THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND 100 DEGREES.
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 110 THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56/62

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