Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Little Rock, AR

July 14, 2012Cleveland County, Jefferson County, Arkansas

NWS Little Rock, AR issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 14, 2012, 6:01 PM CDT for Cleveland County, Jefferson County, Arkansas. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 14, 2012, 6:01 PM CDT (23:01 UTC)
Expired: Jul 14, 2012, 6:45 PM CDT
In force: 44 min
Issued by: NWS Little Rock, AR
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Cleveland County, AR, Jefferson County, AR

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 210 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1302 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -4 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 555 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 7 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 12 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 24 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 14, 2:36 PM CDT, 3 hours 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 14, 2:36 PM CDT, 3 hours 25 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
236 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
PATTERN REMAINS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND
DOMINATED BY ANTICYCLONES OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS A LARGE SHEAR AXIS/AREA OF
CHANNEL VORTICITY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALL THE WAY
TO THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT
ONE SOLUTION IS NOT FAVORED OVER ANOTHER AT THIS TIME.

IN ADDITION TO THE SHEAR AXIS...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LOW SWIRLING OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. PRECIPITATION
ON LOCAL RADAR ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE WITH RETURNS MOVING TO
THE NORTH OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS AND TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEING AIDED BY
SOUTHWARD MOVING VORT MAX. WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING ONCE AGAIN.

UPPER LOW RETROGRADES OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
EXPAND. MODELS CONSISTENT ON ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FORMING OVER
THE EAST TONIGHT AND EXPANDING WESTWARD DURING THE DAY. AS SUCH WILL
INCREASE POPS DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY  AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A CONCERN AS PWATS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE SHEAR AXIS DOES WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT MOISTURE REMAINS
PLENTIFUL. PULSE TYPE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. MOISTURE LEVELS
REMAIN HIGH AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED LATE IN
THE PERIOD.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO EAST AND ENCOMPASS MUCH OF
THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
WELL TO WEST OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH
WILL KEEP SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS COMMON ACROSS THE STATE. THE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE RICH AIR FROM
THE GULF COAST AND ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES OF OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD IN REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS CAUSES A
SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST HIGH TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE DAYS TO
COME.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGHOUT THE
STATE. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
BE APPROACHING THE 100-105 DEGREE MARK THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES...A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  88  72  94 /  40  40  30  20
CAMDEN AR         73  90  72  92 /  50  60  30  20
HARRISON AR       69  89  70  93 /  30  30  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  90  72  92 /  40  50  30  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  89  72  93 /  50  50  30  20
MONTICELLO AR     73  90  73  93 /  60  60  30  20
MOUNT IDA AR      71  90  71  91 /  40  40  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  90  70  94 /  30  30  20  20
NEWPORT AR        72  88  73  94 /  50  50  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     72  89  73  93 /  50  60  30  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  89  71  94 /  30  40  20  20
SEARCY AR         72  89  72  94 /  50  50  30  20
STUTTGART AR      72  89  72  93 /  50  60  30  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...227

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 14, 10:55 AM CDT, 7 hours 6 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1055 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-151000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1055 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THERE COULD BE
SOME STRONG STORMS...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...SMALL
HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

EVEN WITH RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST...EXTREME WILDFIRE DANGER
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE...AND MOST COUNTIES HAVE BURN
BANS IN PLACE. ANY FIRE THAT STARTS COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY AND QUICKLY
GET OUT OF CONTROL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK...AS MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WHATEVER RAIN MATERIALIZES...IT WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
THE ONGOING DROUGHT. OUTDOOR BURNING OF ANY KIND IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

28

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 14, 1:30 PM CDT, 4 hours 31 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
130 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

ARZ030-037-141900-
LOGAN AR-SCOTT AR-
130 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NORTHERN SCOTT AND
WESTERN LOGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 128 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF BRANCH...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF
BOONEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BOONEVILLE...         RATCLIFF...           ECHO...
  IONE...               CHISMVILLE...         CAULKSVILLE...
  CAROLAN...            BARBER...             WATSON LAKE...
  TATE...               HEWITT LAKE...        CANEY LAKE...
  BOY SCOUTS LAKE...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3511 9415 3515 9414 3515 9404 3523 9404
      3524 9402 3524 9393 3532 9392 3533 9390
      3531 9383 3501 9396 3510 9418
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 023DEG 13KT 3526 9398

58

Local storm report, Jul 14, 3:20 PM CDT, 2 hours 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
320 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     HAIL             3 SE CHISMVILLE         35.19N 93.91W
07/14/2012  E1.00 INCH       LOGAN              AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

58

Local storm report, Jul 14, 5:02 PM CDT, 59 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
502 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S COVE                34.42N 94.41W
07/14/2012  E40 MPH          POLK               AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 71 ONE MILE SOUTH OF COVE.

&&

58

Special weather statement, Jul 14, 5:44 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
544 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

ARZ056-063-142330-
CLEVELAND AR-JEFFERSON AR-
544 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON AND
NORTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 543 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEDRON...OR 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF RISON...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RISON...              TOLEDO...             KEDRON...
  RANDALL...            FAITH...              CALMER...
  UNIONVILLE...         SORRELLS...           RONE...
  NEELY LAKE...         MIDLAND LAKE...       DUNKEFFIE LAKE...
  DOUBLE WELLS...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 530 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 41 AND 44.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3418 9222 3418 9199 3392 9200 3392 9221
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 179DEG 13KT 3400 9211

44

The office that day

Everything else NWS Little Rock, AR issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 14, 9:54 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Baxter, Boone, Marion, Newton, Searcy	56 min
Jul 14, 10:49 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Newton	46 min
Jul 14, 11:39 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Johnson, Van Buren	46 min
Jul 14, 1:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Sebastian	30 min
Jul 14, 1:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Logan	25 min
Jul 14, 2:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Logan	12 min
Jul 14, 5:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Cleveland	46 min
Jul 14, 6:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Cleveland, Jefferson, Lincoln	38 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2012 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.