Severe Thunderstorm Warning 220, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1240 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON TO EVENING. MORNING CONVECTION HAS MAINLY BEEN OVER
SOUTHERN AR AND HAS AFFECTED KPBF AND KLLQ. WILL SEE THIS TREND THIS
AFTERNOON TO EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL FORMATION TO AFFECT CENTRAL
TAFS AND TO A LOWER DEGREE OVER NORTHERN TAFS. HAVE USED VCSH TO
VCTS ALL TAFS...WHILE TEMPO GROUPS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAFS WHERE
GREATER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. MAINLY VFR CEILINGS WITH CONVECTION
WITH ONLY PATCHY MVFR. WINDS HAVE BEEN QUITE VARIABLE...MAINLY SE TO
SW 4 TO 12 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTH TO CENTRAL AR...WHILE VARIABLE LESS
THAN 5 KNOTS OVER THE NORTH. TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL SAG CLOSER TO
NORTHERN AR AND HELP DEVELOP ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SCTD CONVECTION ACRS THE FA SAT AFTN QUICKLY WEAKENED DURG THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY WAS NOTED OVR FAR SERN AND
INTO MS...BUT CONT TO SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS IT WORKS WWD. WARM
AND HUMID CONDS COMMON ACRS AR EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH TEMPS IN THE
70S AND LOWER 80S.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE COMING DAYS WL BE THE APCHG FNTL BNDRY FM
THE N AND RESULTING RAIN CHCS ACRS THE FA. THE ACTUAL FNT WAS A BIT
BEHIND SCHEDULE THIS MRNG...EXTENDING ACRS NRN MO INTO CNTRL KS. THE
BNDRY WL CONT TO MOVE SLOLY SWD TODAY...APCHG NRN AR TNGT.

DAYTIME HEATING WL INTERACT WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BNDRY/S...INCRSD
MOISTURE AND WEAKENING UPR RDG TO PRODUCE SCTD CONVECTION OVR THE
AREA TODAY. KEPT POPS IN HIGH CHC CAT FOR THE TIME BEING AS
AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WL STILL BE WELL N OF THE FA. LIKE THE LAST FEW
DAYS...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THE CDFNT WL DROP INTO AR LATER TNGT AND ON MON...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR MORE SHRA/TSRA. CONTD TREND OF PREV FCSTR WITH MENTIONING LIKELY
POPS FOR MON...ESP DURG THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF THE DAY. THE FNT WL
MEANDER ACRS SRN AR/NRN LA INTO MIDWEEK...WITH RAIN CHCS RMNG INTO
THE FCST. HIGHEST POPS WL CONT TO BE OVR SRN AR IN THE VCNTY OF THE
BNDRY...WITH LESSER CHCS TO THE N. APPEARS THE BNDRY WL FINALLY GET
A GOOD PUSH FURTHER TO THE S LATE WED AND WED NGT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH PLACEMENT OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE EXTENDED. THE EUROPEAN MOVES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
STATE...WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR FOLLOWING. MEANWHILE...THE GFS
KEEPS THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE TRENDED MORE TO THE GFS SOLUTION...
BUT KEPT RAIN CHANCES SMALL. EITHER WAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...59

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-091000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY...HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL CLIMB
ABOVE 100 DEGREES TODAY.

AN EXTREME WILDFIRE DANGER CONTINUES ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE...AND
MOST COUNTIES HAVE BURN BANS IN PLACE. ANY FIRE THAT STARTS COULD
SPREAD RAPIDLY AND QUICKLY GET OUT OF CONTROL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL
INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS TO PRODUCE GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...A FEW STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

WHATEVER RAIN MATERIALIZES...IT WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
THE ONGOING DROUGHT. OUTDOOR BURNING OF ANY KIND IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

58

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