Severe Thunderstorm Warning 189, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
306 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...THERE ARE A FEW
SYSTEMS THAT MAY BRING ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES TO THE STATE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

SCATTERED CONVECTION MOVED ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING...BUT AS THE OUTFLOW MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
ACTIVITY DISSIPATED RATHER QUICKLY. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH MID EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION OR QPF.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
STATE...HAVE ADDED SMALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO HINT OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
GULF COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE TOLEDO
BEND AREA OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA...BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM DOES BEAR WATCHING IN
THE COMING DAYS.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

EXTENDED RANGE LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS...WITH SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY OVER THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING STORM POSSIBLE AT TIMES. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION BY FRIDAY. IF THE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN...THE FRONT MAY
ACTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...57

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
333 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

ARZ030-038-152120-
LOGAN AR-YELL AR-
333 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN YELL AND CENTRAL
LOGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 330 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WALNUT GROVE...OR 13 MILES WEST OF
DANVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MT MAGAZINE...        COVE LAKE...          BLUE MTN LAKE...
  WAVELAND...           HAVANA...             CORLEY...
  WAVELAND PARK...      WALNUT GROVE...       QUARRY HEIGHTS...
  POTATO HILL MTN...    MARVINVILLE...
  LICK CREEK REC AREA...                      HUCKLEBERRY MTN...
  GREENFIELD REC AREA...                      FLOOD MTN...
  EAST END REC AREA...  DRIPPING SPGS REC AREA...
  CHICKALAH MTN...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3528 9368 3521 9341 3499 9353 3505 9372
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 196DEG 8KT 3511 9361

225