Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
819 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ZONES SENT OUT. ALL WATCHES IN OUR AREA HAVE
EXPIRED OR HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES...CLOUD
COVER AND POPS. MCS IS TRYING TO MOVE OUT OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
BUT THERE IS SOME DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST. ALSO...SOME SHOWERS ARE
NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT IS JUST GETTING INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HIGHEST POPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/

AVIATION...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS. HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL..AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS. ONCE THESE MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA...THERE WILL BE A BREAK. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT IS JUST
ENTERING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST.
STORMS COULD REFIRE ALONG THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT...MAINLY CENTRAL
AND SOUTH. INCLUDED SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE NOTED IN THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL TODAY. MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
CONTINUING TO MONITOR LINE OF CONVECTION...MOVING SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS INDICATES THE COLD
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO OUTRUN THE
CONVECTION.

EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AS
IT ENCOUNTERS SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY.../3000+ SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES/...BEFORE WEAKENING.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY...RESPONSIBLE FOR PROMOTING THE INTITAL
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH OVERNIGHT.
DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING...THIS FEATURE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z TUE...ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. UNDER THE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED...AND RESTRICTED TO THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     68  87  59  84 /  40  30  10  10
CAMDEN AR         72  88  66  87 /  60  50  40  20
HARRISON AR       64  84  57  82 /  20  10  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    70  87  63  86 /  50  40  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  88  64  85 /  50  40  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     73  89  67  88 /  60  50  40  10
MOUNT IDA AR      70  86  63  85 /  50  30  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  85  57  83 /  30  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        70  88  62  85 /  40  30  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     72  88  66  87 /  50  50  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  87  62  85 /  50  30  10  20
SEARCY AR         70  87  62  85 /  50  30  10  10
STUTTGART AR      72  88  65  86 /  50  40  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
710 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-121000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
710 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN SOUTH ARKANSAS. A SEVERE
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED
AREAS WILL ALSO RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN.

LATE TONIGHT...REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ON TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST AND REACH THE
ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA STATE LINE LATER IN THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. INDICATIONS ARE THE FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY...THEN DRIFT A BIT NORTH ON
THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING WELL NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD KEEP SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT
WILL BE LOW AND ONLY ISOLATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

55

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
734 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SE SELMA              33.63N 91.48W
06/11/2012                   DREW               AR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES REPORTED DOWN ACROSS HWY 278.

&&

224

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
739 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

ARZ063-068-069-120125-
BRADLEY AR-CLEVELAND AR-DREW AR-
739 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DREW...SOUTHEASTERN
CLEVELAND AND NORTHEASTERN BRADLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 738 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARKS MILL BTLGND...OR 11
MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORDYCE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WARREN...             WILMAR...             WEEKS...
  PLANTERSVILLE...      HEBRON...             GREEN HILL...
  CRANE LAKE...         BRANDON...            RYE...
  ROCK SPRINGS...       ORLANDO...            NEW EDINBURG...
  MARSH LAKE...         MARKS MILL BTLGND...  BETHEL...
  BARKADA...            ALLIS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3376 9183 3354 9191 3369 9231 3386 9226
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 287DEG 20KT 3375 9223

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
748 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

ARZ068-069-120130-
BRADLEY AR-DREW AR-
748 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DREW AND EASTERN BRADLEY
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 743 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF SHILOH...OR 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WARREN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LADELLE...            GREEN HILL...         VALLEY...
  PLEASANT GROVE...     LACEY...              COLLINS...
  VALLEY JUNCTION...    SHILOH...             SHADY GROVE...
  LEWIS...              COMINTO...            BYNUM LAKE...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3349 9204 3359 9199 3354 9149 3338 9155
      3338 9174
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 284DEG 23KT 3352 9193

44