Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
149 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

.UPDATE...
FORECASTS THROUGH 06Z HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/

UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR MESOSCALE
CONSIDERATIONS...MAINLY DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
FROM SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. EXPECT A WIND THREAT EARLY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

55

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012 /

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY...WITH PATCHY MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AR...AS WITH SHOWERS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN TAF SITES
THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN TAFS. IN THE
AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
CENTRAL TO SOUTH AS AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE STATE...AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION. E TO SE WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS THIS MORNING BECOMING SE TO
SW 7 TO 14 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
MORNING AND DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF IT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL START IN
THE NORTHWEST AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST. USED VCSH THEN VCTS IN
TAFS...THEN TEMPO GROUPS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE.(59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE...AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WILL BE THE
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER NWRN MO...AND THE
INFLUENCE THIS COMPLEX WILL HAVE ON AR THIS AFTERNOON...

ALL OF AR REMAINS DRY EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE WEAK UPPER WAVE THAT
BROUGHT PRECIP TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION HAS MOVED TO THE EAST. SFC
OBS SHOWING MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOOSELY ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NERN KS AND NWRN MO...WHICH HAVE RECENTLY
BEGUN TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARDS THE SE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.

AFTERNOON FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WEAK CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NWRN MO. LATEST HIGH RES NEAR TERM
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COMPLEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS MO INTO AR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WHETHER OR NOT THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THAT MUCH SWD
MOMENTUM REMAINS THE QUESTION WITH THE SFC FRONT REMAINING TO
FURTHER TO THE NORTH...AND WITH THE COMPLEX CURRENTLY LOOSELY
ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH CAPPED...MILD TEMPS AND HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS DO
EXIST TO THE SOUTH OF THE COMPLEX...WHICH COULD KEEP ENOUGH ELEVATED
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
FURTHER SOUTH INTO AR BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ACROSS AR WILL WARM WELL INTO
THE 90S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE AT A MINIMUM. FURTHER NORTH...EXPECT COOLER
TEMPS...BUT WILL ALSO BE GOVERNED ON HOW SOON CONVECTION
INITIATIONS. IF THE LATEST HIGH RES MODELS ARE MORE
ACCURATE...EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS ACROSS NRN...AND ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL SECTIONS.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SVR...WITH HIGH LEVELS ON INSTABILITY
EXPECTED. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
BETTER CONFIDENCE WILL BE SEEN AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS MO INTO AR THIS EVENING...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT SFC FORCING
MECHANISM EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE ONE CAVEAT WILL BE HOW
EXPANSIVE THIS AFOREMENTIONED AFTERNOON COMPLEX WILL GET...WHICH
COULD DECREASE SOME OF THE ENERGY AVAILABLE JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
FRONT TONIGHT.

BY TUE...THE SFC FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OVER THE AR
OZARKS...WITH BEST POPS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. HAVE POPS DECREASING GRADUALLY FROM NE TO SW
AS THIS FRONT SAGS TO THE SW. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO HAVE PUSHED JUST SW OF THE STATE...WITH GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE CWA BY THU.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MODELS HAVE NOW SLOWED THE NORTHERN LIFT OF THE WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN AR TO NORTHERN LA...AND NOW KEEP A WEAKENING
BOUNDARY FROM LA TO WESTERN AR...DUE TO A STRONGER SURFACE AND UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS. ECMWF AND GFS EVEN SHOW SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WITH THE BOUNDARY...AND THEREFORE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE A
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING CONVECTION POTENTIAL AND
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS. ON SUNDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER
RIDGE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH SHOULD LOWER THE
OVERALL CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION. CURRENTLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IS IN
THE FORECAST AND DUE TO OVERALL UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP THIS AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     90  68  87  63 /  50  50  10  10
CAMDEN AR         95  72  88  69 /  40  50  40  30
HARRISON AR       88  64  84  61 /  70  40  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  70  87  68 /  50  50  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  72  88  67 /  50  50  30  10
MONTICELLO AR     95  73  89  69 /  40  50  40  30
MOUNT IDA AR      91  69  86  67 /  50  50  40  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  87  65  85  61 /  70  40  10  10
NEWPORT AR        92  70  88  64 /  50  50  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     94  73  88  68 /  50  50  40  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   95  69  87  66 /  50  50  20  10
SEARCY AR         93  70  87  65 /  50  50  20  10
STUTTGART AR      91  72  88  66 /  50  50  30  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
945 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-121000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
945 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AND
INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS BY LATE MORNING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
CLARKSVILLE...TO BATESVILLE ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE THESE STORMS.

FROM MID AFTERNOON...THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM...AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. VERY
LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ON TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST AND REACH THE
ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA STATE LINE LATER IN THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. INDICATIONS ARE THE FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY...THEN DRIFT A BIT NORTH ON
THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING WELL NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD KEEP SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT
WILL BE LOW AND ONLY ISOLATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1207 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 PM     HAIL             RIDGEWAY                36.32N 93.20W
06/11/2012  E1.50 INCH       BOONE              AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

55

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1222 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

ARZ004>006-111755-
BAXTER AR-FULTON AR-MARION AR-
1222 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MARION...EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN FULTON AND BAXTER COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

AT 1222 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SPRING LAKE ESTATES...OR NEAR MOUNTAIN
HOME...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MOUNTAIN HOME...      SHIPP...              SALESVILLE...
  RUSH...               ROBINSON PT LNDG...   PUSH MTN...
  NORFORK DAM...        NORFORK...
  LOWER BUFFALO WILDERNESS AREA...            LION HILL...
  LAKEVIEW...           HERRON...             GASSVILLE...
  GAMALIEL LANDING...   FAWN PARK...          DIAMOND BAY...
  CULP...               COLFAX...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3649 9214 3619 9217 3619 9222 3617 9222
      3613 9222 3612 9220 3607 9221 3607 9260
      3649 9254
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 259DEG 25KT 3635 9241

227

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1226 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S OMAHA               36.45N 93.19W
06/11/2012                   BOONE              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES ARE DOWN ALONG OLD HIGHWAY 65 SOUTH OF OMAHA.

&&

227

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
139 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0128 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARSHALL                35.91N 92.64W
06/11/2012                   SEARCY             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES ARE DOWN IN MARSHALL.

&&

227

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