Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
239 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY...NOW ENTERING NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS. 19Z
SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR
JOPLIN...TO NEAR ARDMORE. CONVECTION HAS INITIATED AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI...ARKANSAS BORDER.

EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS MODEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ENCOUNTERS MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...~2000 J/KG.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CWA...AFFECTING MAINLY
SOUTHERN PORTIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING THE STATE.

DRY CONDITIONS...WITH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SRN MS RIVER VALLEY
REGION...BEGINNING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY THIS UPCOMING MEMORIAL
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE NEAR ITS PEAK STRENGTH
OVER THIS SAME REGION...WITH HIGHS WARMING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TO MAINLY THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE
WEEKEND. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. LOW TEMPS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S. WHAT
LITTLE GOOD NEWS MAY BE PRESENT DURING THIS PERIOD OF HEAT WILL BE
THE LACK OF MOISTURE...WHICH COULD KEEP HEAT INDICES WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF TEMPS. THE LACK OF MOISTURE UNDER THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO
KEEP PRECIP CHANCES VERY LOW...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE EACH DAY. REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE EXTENT OF HOW HOT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL BE...WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     87  60  79  51 /  30  30  30  10
CAMDEN AR         90  61  85  58 /  20  20  40  50
HARRISON AR       81  56  75  48 /  30  30  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    89  62  83  55 /  20  20  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  64  83  57 /  20  30  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     92  64  86  59 /  20  20  40  40
MOUNT IDA AR      88  60  82  52 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  84  57  78  49 /  30  30  30  10
NEWPORT AR        89  62  81  54 /  30  30  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     89  65  85  58 /  20  20  40  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  61  82  52 /  30  30  30  10
SEARCY AR         87  63  82  53 /  30  30  30  20
STUTTGART AR      89  66  83  58 /  20  30  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...62

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
434 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

ARZ005-202220-
BAXTER AR-
434 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BAXTER COUNTY UNTIL 515
PM CDT...

AT 430 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HERITAGE ESTATES...OR NEAR MOUNTAIN HOME...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MOUNTAIN HOME...      SHIPP...              SALESVILLE...
  RODNEY...             ROBINSON PT LNDG...   NORFORK DAM...
  NORFORK...            DIAMOND BAY...        COLFAX...
  CARTNEY...            BRIARCLIFF...         LONE ROCK...
  JORDAN...             HENDERSON...          BUFORD...
  WOOD PT PARK...       WOLF KNOB...          WILD HOG MTN...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3618 9216 3618 9221 3616 9221 3619 9245
      3636 9247 3641 9215
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 264DEG 12KT 3628 9235

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