Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1020 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. SURFACE WINDS ARE PICKING UP FROM THE W
TO NW AND SEEING 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. EXPECTING
WINDS TO COME UP EVEN MORE AND BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OVER NORTHERN AR. LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM. WINDS WILL LOWER AROUND
SUNSET. WILD FIRE CONCERNS REMAIN UP DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND LOW
AFTERNOON RH VALUES FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OFF TO THE WEST AND FILTERING THE COOLER AND DRY
AIR MASS INTO AR...WHILE TO THE NORTH THE STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE STRATA CU CLOUD
SHIELD IS ROTATING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW AND SOME CEILINGS WILL
REACH NORTHERN AR AND WILL FINE TUNE THIS WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE.
ALSO WILL FINE TUNE TEMPS IN SPOTS...LOWER DEW POINT TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BASED ON TRENDS AND EXPECTED DRY AIR MIXING OUT. AREA
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW QUITE A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WHICH SHOULD HOLD OR LOWERING SPOTS DEW POINT TEMPS. REST OF
FORECAST NO CHANGE. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012/

.AVIATION...19/12Z TAF CYCLE

MOISTURE WL CONT TO ROTATE ARND THE STRONG UPR LOW ACRS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN PDS OF CLOUDS MAINLY ACRS NRN AR. MOST
CIGS WL RMN AT VFR LVLS...WITH BRIEF PDS OF MVFR CONDS EARLY IN THE
PD. RESIDUAL BLOWING DUST ACRS CNTRL AND SRN AR IS RESULTING IN
FALSE LOW CIGS BEING REPORTING BY THE OBSERVING SYSTEMS. W/NWLY
WINDS WL INCRS TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY MID TO LATE MRNG...DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WI THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT  LAKES REGION BY TONIGHT...WITH AR
REMAINING IN NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW. THIS
SETUP WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SAT. FAIRLY TIGHT
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE A
BIT LIGHTER THAN ON THU...AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN SOONER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BY LATE AFTERNOON. EVEN
SO...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HRS WHERE LAKE WIND ADV WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE SEEN. AS A RESULT...WILL POST ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADV FROM
15Z-23Z.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE SEEN BY SAT MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE
BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH SRLY FLOW RETURNING. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
INCREASE FOR SUN. BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH THAT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MON ACROSS
THE WRN AND NWRN COUNTIES AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE LIFTS NE OUT
OF MEXICO INTO THE SRN PLAINS. BEST POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE NWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH PRES ALOFT IS FCST TO RMN IN PLACE ACRS THE SRN STATES FOR MUCH
OF THE PD. A PERSISTENT SLY SFC FLOW WL RESULT IN A CONTD PD OF ABV
NORMAL TEMPS. SEVERAL UPR IMPULSES WL TRACK ARND THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPR RDG TUE AND TUE NGT...TO PRODUCE SLGT CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA
FOR THE NWRN HALF OF THE FA.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS SHOW UP TOWARD THE END OF THE PD WITH
THE GFS BREAKING DOWN THE UPR RDG...ALLOWING A STRONG CDFNT TO MOVE
THRU AR. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPR RDG IN PLACE WITH A
CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDS. FOR NOW...STAYED CLOSER
TO THE EURO SOLUTION AND RETAIN MORE CONSISTENCY AT THIS POINT.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-201000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE COMMON...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
917 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNTAIN VIEW           35.87N 92.11W
10/17/2012                   STONE              AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            LARGE TREE REPORTED DOWN.

&&

224