Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Little Rock, AR

Arkansas County, AR, Baxter County, AR, Clark County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Conway County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Marion County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Perry County, AR, Pike County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR

838 
WWUS84 KLZK 050002 AAA
RFWLZK

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
602 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST FOR
MUCH OF ARKANSAS...

.THE OVERALL DANGER OF WILD FIRES WILL LOWER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND THEN PUSH TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL LOWER AND
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL GRADUALLY RISE TONIGHT BUT DUE TO THE QUITE DRY
CONDITIONS AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL CONTINUE. BURNING
IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-050115-
/O.CAN.KLZK.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120305T0000Z/
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-
VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL-
602 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED AS CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK WILL ALLOW THE RED FLAG
WARNING TO EXPIRE.

THE OVERALL DANGER OF WILD FIRES WILL LOWER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND THEN PUSH TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL LOWER AND
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL GRADUALLY RISE TONIGHT BUT DUE TO THE QUITE DRY
CONDITIONS AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL CONTINUE. BURNING
IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

$$
59

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
323 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE STATE THIS MORNING...WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS REGION ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING TROUGH. VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
STATE...WITH ISODROSOTHERMAL ANALYSIS SHOWING DEWPTS IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN
THE LAST FEW HRS AS SFC WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO LIGHT TO AROUND 5 KTS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LAKE WIND ADV IN
EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES STARTING LATE THIS MORNING THOUGH 00Z.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO EFFICIENTLY MIX THE LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE...KEEPING NEAR SFC MOISTURE LEVELS LOW FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. DEWPTS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING...BUT BEGIN TO DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AS MIXING BECOMES MORE PROMINENT. RESULTING RH VALUES WILL DROP
BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR MOST SITES...AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT IN SOME CASES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. THE WINDY CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH THE
VERY DRY AIR AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LATELY...THE
WILDFIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A RED
FLAG WARNING WILL BE POSTED.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LESS.
EVEN SO...AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER WILL EXIST. MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL FINALLY START INCREASING BY TUE AFTERNOON AS SRLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PROGRESSING
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WED...WITH AN UPPER CLOSED LOW TO THE SW
MOVING TOWARDS AR. SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS AR LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS THESE FEATURES MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE STATE. THE PRECIP
CHANCES WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

UNSETTLED WX WL CONT HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PD AS A SLOW MOVG
STORM SYS AFFECTS THE FA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE UPR LOW THAT IS FCST TO BCM CUTOFF FM THE
MAIN UPR FLOW AND MEANDER TO OUR W THRU MUCH OF THE PD. INCLINED TO
LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION...TAKING THE ASSOCD FNTL BNDRY
SLOLY SWD ACRS AR THU AND FRI. THUS...KEPT RAIN CHCS IN THE FCST
THRU MOST OF THE PD. STAYED CLOSE TO MOS TEMPS THRU THE PD DUE TO
THE FCST UNCERTAINTIES BETWEEN THE MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     66  37  60  37 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         71  44  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       64  33  61  41 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    70  41  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  40  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     69  43  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      69  40  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  35  60  38 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        65  37  59  37 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     69  41  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  38  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         66  38  61  36 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      67  39  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
645 PM CST SAT MAR 03 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-041100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
645 PM CST SAT MAR 03 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WILD FIRE DANGER REMAINS ELEVATED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL LOWER WHILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE 30 PERCENT
RANGE TO THE 50 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE OVERALL
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE DRY...AND THE WILD FIRE THREAT WILL REMAIN
UP. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT ADVISED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WILD FIRE DANGER WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED SUNDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE IN THE FORECAST...WITH STRONG WEST WINDS AND LOWERING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY. AGAIN...OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

ACCORDING TO THE ARKANSAS FORESTRY COMMISSION...THERE IS A HIGH WILD
FIRE DANGER STATEWIDE...AND A FEW COUNTIES IN THE NORTH AND WEST ARE
UNDER BURN BANS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETUP OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES...AND A CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO ARKANSAS. THIS WILL SLOWLY HELP INCREASE
MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE STATE.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A NEW COLD FRONT WILL HEAD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT WILL ENCOUNTER HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. A SLUGGISH
FRONT SURROUNDED BY LOTS OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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