Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
249 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

RADAR/SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CENTER IF THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL AR...OR AROUND MONTGOMERY COUNTY AT 730Z.
WIDESPREAD SHRA CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER.
BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE AS WELL...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS SURROUNDING THE
LOW CENTER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 KTS IN SOME SPOTS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE RANGED FROM
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE WRN COUNTIES...TO AROUND 4
INCHES AT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE AR. MOST LOCATIONS
WERE SEEING ABOUT 1 TO AROUND 2 INCHES.

WILL KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS GOING THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THIS FRI AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC CONTINUE TO PUSH NW AND NORTH INTO
SW MO. BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT...KEEP FFA GOING FOR MANY COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED SOME OF THE SRN AND SW COUNTIES AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS LESSENED SIGNIFICANTLY.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THIS FRI...AND WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADV FOR ALL COUNTIES AT
THIS TIME. AS THE REMNANTS LIFT NORTH INTO MO THIS EVENING...EXPECT
THE WINDS TO LESSEN...AND PRECIP CHANCES TO DROP. HOWEVER...DO
KEEPING LINGERING POPS FOR THE NRN AND NERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE
SAT INTO SUN AS THERE WILL BE LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIFT
SURROUNDING THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC TO THE NE.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN...AS WELL AS HOTTER
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY WELL INTO THE 90S IN AT LEAST
THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL. BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO HANG UP NEAR NORTHERN ARKANSAS AS IT HITS FLATTENED
UPPER FLOW. THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE REGION WILL ALLOW
FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES...AS WELL AS
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     82  74  88  72 / 100  80  50  40
CAMDEN AR         87  75  93  74 /  80  50  30  20
HARRISON AR       77  71  87  70 / 100  80  50  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  74  89  73 / 100  50  40  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  85  74  89  73 / 100  60  50  40
MONTICELLO AR     85  74  91  74 /  80  50  30  20
MOUNT IDA AR      82  73  89  73 /  90  50  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  79  72  87  71 / 100  80  50  40
NEWPORT AR        84  74  89  73 /  90  70  50  40
PINE BLUFF AR     86  74  89  73 / 100  50  40  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   82  73  90  72 / 100  60  50  40
SEARCY AR         84  74  88  73 / 100  70  50  40
STUTTGART AR      85  74  88  73 / 100  70  50  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GRANT-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-NEWTON-PERRY-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. AS THE GROUND BECOMES SATURATED...FLASH FLOODING
COULD RESULT. REMEMBER...HEAVY RAINFALL CAN LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING...EVEN IN AREAS EXPERIENCING PROLONGED DROUGHT.

WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH
AT TIMES. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
STRONG WIND WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ON AREA BODIES OF WATER
AND ELEVATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. ALSO...TREE LIMBS WEAKENED BY
DROUGHT WILL SNAP MORE EASILY...AND THIS COULD CREATE POWER OUTAGES.

ALSO ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE COMMON SURROUNDING A TROPICAL SYSTEM.
TORNADOES USUALLY FORM IN RAIN BANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TEND TO
STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS WILL MINIMIZE THE TORNADO
CONCERN. THOUGH THE OVERALL THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS LOW...THE
GREATEST CHANCES OF SEEING AN ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD BE PRIMARILY
EAST OF A LINE FROM HAMPTON TO HARRISON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISAACS REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MID-WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE LOW TORNADO THREAT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

57