Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

.AVIATION...
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAAC WILL TRACK FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA
THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY. EAST OF THE TRACK...
RAIN WILL BE HEAVY/EXCESSIVE...AND WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS/MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP. GUSTY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT/FRIDAY. (46)
&&

.DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF ISAAC APPEAR TO BE CENTERED NEAR RUSTON
LOUISIANA...MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF INTERACTION WITH
MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS OCCURRED...AND HAS AFFECTED ISAAC DURING ITS
APPROACH TO ARKANSAS.

EXPECT A INCREASED CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR
LOCAL INCREASES IN INSTABILITY...ALLOWING FOR SMALL SCALE
ENVIRONMENTS THAT SUPPORT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFERS...AND BRIEF
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT.

RESIDUAL...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS SMALL SCALE BOUNDARIES ACT ON RELATIVELY
HIGH THETA-E AIR TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     71  82  72  88 /  80  90  80  40
CAMDEN AR         72  87  73  92 /  90  90  80  20
HARRISON AR       68  77  69  84 /  90  90  90  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  83  72  90 /  90 100  90  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  84  73  90 /  90 100  90  30
MONTICELLO AR     73  88  74  92 /  90  90  70  20
MOUNT IDA AR      71  82  72  90 /  90 100  90  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  80  70  86 /  90  90  80  50
NEWPORT AR        72  84  73  89 /  80  80  80  40
PINE BLUFF AR     72  86  73  91 /  90  90  80  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  81  72  90 /  90 100  90  40
SEARCY AR         72  83  73  88 /  90  90  80  40
STUTTGART AR      72  85  73  90 /  90  90  80  30

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-NEWTON-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CONWAY-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-YELL.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-
GRANT-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-GRANT-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-WHITE-
WOODRUFF.

&&

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...227

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-311800-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1245 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAAC WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA
THIS MORNING INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THIS EVENING. SURROUNDING
ISAAC...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF CLARKSVILLE
AND BATESVILLE THROUGH SUNSET. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
BUILDING NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS ISAAC HEADS THROUGH WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE.

RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...RAINFALL TOTALS OF
ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE COMMON...WITH HIGHER TOTALS APPROACHING
FIVE INCHES IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. AS THE GROUND BECOMES SATURATED
IN THE SOUTHEAST...FLASH FLOODING COULD RESULT. REMEMBER...HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...EVEN IN AREAS EXPERIENCING
PROLONGED DROUGHT.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STORM...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. WINDS SUSTAINED
AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON...WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
THE WIND WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ON AREA BODIES OF WATER.
ALSO...TREE LIMBS WEAKENED BY DROUGHT WILL SNAP MORE EASILY...AND
THIS COULD CREATE POWER OUTAGES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE COMMON SURROUNDING A TROPICAL SYSTEM.
TORNADOES USUALLY FORM IN RAIN BANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE SOME BANDING WILL BE NOTED IN SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE MORE BANDING IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THIS IS WHERE TORNADOES
WILL BE MOST LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ARKANSAS FRIDAY...
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF
TWO TO FOUR INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN...AND
LOCALIZED RIVER FLOODING COULD OCCUR AS WELL.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL TEND TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS WILL MINIMIZE THE
TORNADO CONCERN.

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE
DAY.

ONCE THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC MOVE OUT OF ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY...DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES TO START OUT NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TODAY IN SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
241 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SHERWOOD                34.83N 92.21W
08/30/2012                   PULASKI            AR   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMB DOWN.

0220 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORTH LITTLE ROCK       34.79N 92.26W
08/30/2012                   PULASKI            AR   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON JFK AND 20TH STREET.

0233 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 W DOWNTOWN LITTLE ROC 34.73N 92.27W
08/30/2012                   PULASKI            AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES REPORTED DOWN ON THE UAMS CAMPUS.

&&

224

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
258 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG RUSSELLVILLE            35.27N 93.14W
08/30/2012                   POPE               AR   PUBLIC

            TREE REPORTED DOWN.

&&

224