Special Weather Statement, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LATE SUNDAY... REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOLER AIR
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM FRONT CREEPING NWD THRU CWA THIS MRNG. AT 8Z POSITION WAS ACRS
BTWN LURAY AND HARRISONBURG IN SHEN VALLEY...THEN ACRS BLUE RIDGE
AND THRU LOUDOUN/MONTGOMERY/CARROLL COUNTIES. S OF FRONT...TEMPS
WARMING OVNGT INTO L60S...WITH FOG/LGT RAIN AND U30S/L40S N. CNVCTN
HAS FIRED ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROF ACRS WV/SW VA. WITH MOST OF CWA IN
WARM SECTOR...FEEL THREAT FOR THIS BAND TO CROSS AT LEAST SRN
PORTIONS OF CWA IS INCRG. HAVE ADDED THUNDER IN GRIDS...AND WITH SLY
H9-H8 JET HAVING SPEEDS OF 60KTS...RISK FOR GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS
REACHING SFC IN STRONGER CELLS. TIMING OF TSTMS IS ROUGHLY 9-11Z
THRU POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...11-13Z CROSSING BLUE RIDGE...AND 13-15Z
I-95 CORRIDOR. WHERE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS EXCEED 60F AT SFC...INVERSION
WILL BE MOSTLY GONE AND UP TO 500J/KG CAPE WILL BE REALIZED. SPCS
SLIGHT RISK IS ACRS LWR SRN MD...WHERE BEST CHC FOR DAMAGING WINDS
WILL EXIST.

AFTER TROF MOVES E OF BAY BY NOON....PCPN WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH IN
WNW DWNSLPG FLOW...FOLLOWED BY FROPA DURG AFTN. XCPN WILL BE W OF
ALLEGHENY FRONT...WHERE STEEP LAPSES RATES AND TERRAIN-INDUCED LIFT
WILL SUPPORT CONTG SHWRS. TEMPS AT 850MB PLUMMET WILL BELOW 0C DURG
DAY...SO SOME SNSH SHUD MIX IN. SFC TEMPS SHUD RMN ABV FRZG SO
ACCUMULATION SHUD BE MINIMAL. TEMPS ACRS REMAINDER OF CWA SHUD DROP
THRU 50S AND INTO 40S BY LATE AFTN.

MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY THIS EVE...BUT INCRG CLOUDS OVNGT AS FAST MOVG
NRN BRANCH SHRTWV TROF TURNS FLOW SWLY ALOFT. MODERATE NW FLOW AND
CLOUDS SHUD CURB RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND MOST AREAS WILL HAVE
MINIMA IN U20S-M30S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVITY IN THE NRN STREAM WL INFLUENCE WKND WX ACRS THE MID ATLC.
SPECIFICALLY...S/WV ENERGY WL ROTATE ARND CNDN UPR LOW...EACH OF
WHICH WL DRIVE COLDER CONDS SWD. THE FIRST VORT WL CROSS THE GRTLKS
SAT AFTN...DROPPING A CDFNT ACRS CWFA DURING THE AFTN-EVE. DURING
THAT TIME...A 2ND VORT WL BE CHARGING ACRS THE NRN PLAINS. THIS ONE
WL CROSS THE CWFA LT SUN...DRAGGING TROF AXIS W/ IT.

SINCE DYNAMICS WL BE CONFINED ACRS NRN CONUS SAT...THE ASSOCD MSTR
WL BUMP INTO THE APPALACHIANS BUT NOT REALLY MAKE IT E OF THERE.
THERE WL BE A GOOD UPSLP COMPONENT. THERMALLY...WL BE STARTING OUT A
BIT TOO WARM FOR SNW...BUT THERE/S CERTAINLY A SNW POTL BY THE END.
HV SIMPLIFIED THAT BY CHC SHRASN IN THE AFTN AND CHC SHSN IN THE
EVNG. SUBSIDENCE FM LLVL RDGG NOSES IN AGN MAKING WINDOW FOR PCPN
RATHER SMALL.

TKNS VALUES WL BE LWR SUN PM...AND PVA W/IN CWFA WL BE MUCH BETTER
AS WELL. PTYPE SHUD MAINLY BE SNW. BEST LOCATION REMAINS ALONG THE
WRN UPSLP AREAS...BUT STREAMWISE PVA IN COLD AMS SUGGESTS A FEW
FLURRIES MAY MAKE IT EAST OF THERE. HV CHOSEN NRN THIRD OF CWFA
ATTM. WL NEED TO MONITOR LATER GDNC FOR DETAILS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WILL ENOUGH COLD/DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION TO KEEP HIGHS
FAIRLY COOL ON MON. HIGH PRESSURE DAYS MON-TUE BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WED.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR CONDS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT FOR TERMINALS BY 9Z...AND
RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL 13-16Z TIMEFRAME AS LOPRES TROF
CROSSES RGN. SHWRS/PSBLY TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AND CB
BEING ADDED INTO ALL BY MRB TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTM RISK. STRONG SLY LLJ
THRU MID-MORNING WARRANTS INCLUSION OF LLWS FOR 45KT WINDS AROUND
2KFT. IF CNVCTN CROSSES RGN...LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY.
BEHIND FRONT...CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY NW WINDS BY THIS AFTN.

LOOKING FOR VRBL CLDS THIS WKND ACRS THE TERMINALS. WL BE A PAIR
OF BNDRYS...LT SAT AND AGN LT SUN. THINK PCPN/PREVAILING FLGT
RESTRICTIONS WL BE HELD BY THE MTNS...AND NOT AFFECT LCL
TERMINALS...BUT WNW WNDS WL INCR BHD EACH BNDRY. IF BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS WERE TO OCCUR...SUN EVE OFFERS THE BETTER...ALBEIT
LOW CONFIDENCE...CHC.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA ALL ZONES FOR SLY WINDS ERY THIS MRNG AS WARM FRONT LIFTS THRU
WATERS. XPCT LOPRES TO CROSS WATERS THIS MRNG...BRINGING SHWRS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE PSBL...AND SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED...ESPECIALLY ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF BAY.
CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU THIS AFTN...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND
IN...THUS SCA CONTS. SOME 30-35 KT GUSTS PSBL...AND GALE WRNG MAY
NEED TO BE RAISED. HIPRES RAPIDLY BUILDS IN TNGT AND WINDS SHUD
DIMINISH AFTR MIDNGT.

SCA POTL EXISTS BHD A PAIR OF BNDRYS CROSSING WATERS THIS WKND. THIS
FIRST BNDRY WL BE A COLD FRONT SAT EVNG. THE 2ND WL BE A TROF AXIS
LT SUN. PSBL SCA FM THE LATTER WL EXTEND INTO MON...AS MIXING IN THE
COLD AMS WL BE FVRBL.
&&

.CLIMATE...
KIAD TIED RECORD HIGH MINIMA YDA...1/26/12...WITH 40F TYING 1967
RECORD.  TDAS RECORD HIGH MINIMA AT IAD IS 39F FROM 1974. THIS MRNG
TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABV THIS...BUT FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTN/EVE WILL
MEAN TEMPS NEAR MIDNIGHT TNGT WILL DETERMINE IF ANOTHER RECORD IS
TIED/BROKEN.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK/HTS
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...SBK/HTS
MARINE...SBK/HTS
CLIMATE...SBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
519 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
281000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
519 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE MARYLAND
PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A GALE WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ANY
REPORTS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS OR STORM-RELATED DAMAGE WOULD BE
GREATLY APPRECIATED.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-281000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
519 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...ANY
REPORTS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS OR STORM-RELATED DAMAGE WOULD BE
GREATLY APPRECIATED.

HTS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
500 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

VAZ037>040-050-051-271045-
ORANGE VA-RAPPAHANNOCK VA-GREENE VA-CULPEPER VA-MADISON VA-
ALBEMARLE VA-
500 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

...SHOWERS WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS TO AFFECT ORANGE...RAPPAHANNOCK...
GREENE...CULPEPER...MADISON AND ALBEMARLE COUNTIES...

AT 459 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS WITH VERY GUSTY
WINDS OVER FREE UNION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE STANARDSVILLE...MADISON AND CULPEPER.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3879 7808 3844 7779 3804 7859 3811 7875
TIME...MOT...LOC 0959Z 229DEG 55KT 3820 7852

KONARIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
503 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

VAZ026>030-WVZ055-271045-
SHENANDOAH VA-WARREN VA-PAGE VA-HARDY WV-ROCKINGHAM VA-FREDERICK VA-
503 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

...SHOWERS WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS TO AFFECT SHENANDOAH...WARREN...
PAGE...HARDY...ROCKINGHAM AND FREDERICK COUNTIES...

AT 502 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWES WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOST RIVER TO
MATHIAS TO 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YANKEETOWN...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BROADWAY...TIMBERVILLE...MOUNT JACKSON...
LURAY...STRASBURG...STEPHENS CITY AND FRONT ROYAL.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3915 7819 3894 7815 3860 7844 3857 7911
      3884 7897 3901 7886
TIME...MOT...LOC 1002Z 256DEG 39KT 3902 7881 3887 7881
          3867 7894

KONARIK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
713 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

VAZ037>040-050-051-501-502-271245-
ORANGE VA-RAPPAHANNOCK VA-GREENE VA-CULPEPER VA-MADISON VA-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER VA-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER VA-ALBEMARLE VA-
713 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

...STRONG STORMS TO AFFECT THE US-29 CORRIDOR FROM CHARLOTTESVILLE
UP TO WARRENTON...

AT 711 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG STORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CHARLOTTESVILLE TO MADISON...MOVING RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CULPEPER...ORANGE AND BEALETON.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING...AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. REMAIN ALERT...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3799 7875 3876 7794 3855 7754 3813 7802
      3815 7810 3813 7821 3789 7841
TIME...MOT...LOC 1211Z 238DEG 49KT 3839 7808 3797 7857