Small Craft Advisory 44, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
310 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
PRECIP WAS FINALLY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA AT
19Z. THIS HAS BEEN DELAYED AT LEAST IN PART BY LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. THIS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALSO HELP TO LIMIT
HOW FAR TO THE NORTH THE PRECIP SHIELD IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS
EVENING.

PLAN ON NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLANDS...SHENANDOAH VALLEY
AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME
FORCING ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS LOW
PRESSURE EMERGES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND INTENSIFIES. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HIGHLAND...AUGUSTA AND NELSON COUNTIES.

LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST OF THE ADVISORY IN KING
GEORGE COUNTY AND ST MARYS COUNTY HOWEVER THERE MAY BE RAIN MIXED IN
AT THE ONSET SO SNOW TOTALS THERE ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1
INCH /SUB-ADVISORY/.

FURTHER NORTH...POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REDUCE STARKLY IN A
TIGHT GRADIENT SITUATION. HAVE TAKEN CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW TO AROUND
I-66. THIS LEANS TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH 12Z GFS VERSUS
THE 12Z NAM.

PRECIP WILL TEND TO MOVE EAST AND ALSO BECOME MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL PRECIP SHOULD
HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND BEFORE DAWN ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST MONDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON A BROAD/REGIONAL SCALE...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS FAIRLY ACTIVE.
HOWEVER...NONE OF THE DISTURBANCES THAT WILL AFFECT THE ERN HALF OF
THE CONUS OVER THE COMING WEEK WILL BE PARTICULARLY POTENT. THE NRN
STREAM JET CONTINUES TO SWING UPPER VORTS SOUTH OF THE US/CANADA
BORDER...BUT FALLING SHORT OF CONNECTING W/ ANY GOOD SRN STREAM
FEATURE. EVEN WHAT APPEARED TO BE A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE W/ SOME PRECIP FOR THE MID ATLC ON WED IS NOW
BASICALLY A DRY PASSAGE OTHER THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE
RANDOMNESS OF THE UPCOMING SHORTWAVE PASSAGES HAS ALSO MODIFIED THE
TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP FOR THE AREA.

CURRENT MED-LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS FIRST COLD FRONT MOVING
THRU EARLIER...W/ A PASSAGE LATE TUE /ONLY MINIMAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY/...ANOTHER WEAK INTERMEDIATE SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE
NORTH ON THU...THEN A MUCH DEEPER BUT STILL MAINLY PRECIP-LESS STORM
SYSTEM HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST IS INCREASE /AGAIN/ IN TEMPS - BACK INTO THE L60S FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE WEEKEND THOUGH WILL SEE TEMPS TAKING A
DIVE AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES A DIVE INTO THE EAST COAST FROM S
CNTRL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRECIP WILL EXPAND NORTH TO CHO THROUGH 21Z AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX BEFORE SHORTLY THEREAFTER CHANGING TO SNOW. CHO IS THE ONLY
TERMINAL WHERE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS /IFR/LIFR/ HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN
SNOW. MODELS KEEP REST OF THE TERMINALS DRY ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE
DOES BRING THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF PRECIP CLOSE TO DCA. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE OF THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN IT EXTENDING TO DCA-IAD FOR THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL
INTENSIFY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING. ANY PRECIP SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. GRADIENT STRENGTHENS FOR POSSIBLE 20 KT
WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT FOR LATE TUE...THOUGH MAINLY DRY. A COUPLE MORE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION AND ALSO
MAINLY DRY. BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL BE THE MAIN WX-IMPACTS FROM THESE
FEATURES DURING THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY FROM WED TILL THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SCA ALREADY IN
EFFECT...AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK...AS ONE
DRY COLD FRONT AFTER ANOTHER MAKES A PASSAGE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
STERLING 88D WL BE OUT OF SERVICE THRU FRI FEB 24 DUE TO UPGRADE
TO DUAL POL TECHNOLOGY. SEE PNSLWX FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ025-026-
     036>038-050-056-503-504.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BPP/GMS
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BPP/GMS
MARINE...BPP/GMS
EQUIPMENT...

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