Small Craft Advisory 187, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
302 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUD COVER HAS SCATTERED OUT FOR THE MOST PART WHICH HAS LED TO
SOME DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOCAL HRRR MODEL
DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO AND HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY.
DRIER AIRMASS WORKS IN OVERNIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 OVER THE
METRO AREAS.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WESTERLY WIND SHIFT EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE METRO AREAS TO THE 40S AND
50S OVER THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AT ANY TIME ON SATURDAY IN UPSLOPE
FLOW REGIME. WILL CONTINUE HIGHEST POPS THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT
UPSLOPE PRECIP TO THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS. THE SATURATED LAYER IS
QUITE SHALLOW...ABOUT 6 KFT MSL OVER THE PIERCE BUFR SOUNDING
LOCATION IN TUCKER COUNTY WV PER THE 12Z GFS. THEREFORE...THE PRECIP
WILL BE MORE DRIZZLE...ENDING AS VERY LIGHT SNOW /OR AS WE CALL IT
IN THE OFFICE...SNIZZLE/ ABOVE ABOUT 3500 FT.

EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES /WITH ONLY A FEW
WAVE CLOUDS OFF THE MOUNTAINS TO THE BLUE RIDGE/. MIN TEMPS MID TO
UPR 30S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOW 40S IN THE PIEDMONT...MID TO
UPR 40S COASTAL PLAINS AND URBAN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK...A DOMINATING RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WAKE
OF LOW MOVING UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. A 1022MB SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE E-CNTRL CONUS...WITH WLY FLOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN STALLS OVER THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING QUITE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE LWX CWA. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WARMING FOR TUESDAY AND ON.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS IN SPOTS TRANSITIONING TO VFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT ANY DIRECT IMPACT
TO THE TERMINALS IS LOW AND WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF ATTM.
A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS
REACHING THE 10 TO 15 KTS THRESHOLD BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR AND LIGHT WLY FLOW. MORNING FOG CHANCES BEST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL SAG SOUTH TO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE MD PART OF THE BAY
SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AS NWLY FLOW
INCREASES...GUSTING AROUND 20 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. LIGHTER
WLY FLOW THEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD. TRANQUIL MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE STALLING
OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CHANNELING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE. NOT EXPECTING TIDE LEVELS OF LAST NIGHT. WESTERLY WIND SHIFT
SHOULD ALLEVIATE TIDAL CONCERNS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-541-543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRW

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
513 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

DCZ001-MDZ009-013-VAZ052>054-192145-
MONTGOMERY MD-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-PRINCE GEORGES MD-FAIRFAX
VA-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-
513 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...
ARLINGTON...MONTGOMERY...PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK...
PRINCE GEORGES AND FAIRFAX COUNTIES...

AT 513 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER DALE CITY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE NEWINGTON...WEST SPRINGFIELD...
SPRINGFIELD...THE I395 AND I495 INTERCHANGE...NORTH SPRINGFIELD...
LINCOLNIA...ANNANDALE...BALLSTON...BAILEYS CROSSROADS AND LAKE
BARCROFT.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3861 7720 3863 7723 3859 7724 3857 7726
      3867 7744 3908 7712 3896 7688
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 213DEG 34KT 3869 7728

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
548 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

DCZ001-MDZ005>007-009>011-013-014-VAZ053-054-192245-
MONTGOMERY MD-HARFORD MD-CARROLL MD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-PRINCE GEORGES MD-
ANNE ARUNDEL MD-HOWARD MD-FAIRFAX VA-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-
548 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...
ARLINGTON...MONTGOMERY...HARFORD...CARROLL...SOUTHERN BALTIMORE...
NORTHERN BALTIMORE...PRINCE GEORGES...ANNE ARUNDEL...HOWARD AND
FAIRFAX COUNTIES...

AT 549 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF MARYLAND LINE TO RAVENSWORTH...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE GLENMONT...GROVETON...ROSE HILL...
WHEATON...EDNOR...JEFFERSON MANOR...HUNTINGTON...BELLE HAVEN...
WHEATON AND NATIONAL HARBOR.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 7649 3901 7676 3878 7686 3874 7733
      3973 7694 3973 7649
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 217DEG 13KT 3977 7661 3880 7721

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
644 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 NNE BROOKLANDVILLE    39.44N  76.66W
10/19/2012                   BALTIMORE          MD   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201373

SBK

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