Small Craft Advisory 162, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
934 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF ISAAC WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A STRONG H5 VORT FROM THE DECAYING PREDECESSOR RAINFALL EVENT
FROM THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION NOW
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS WAS THE LIFTING MECHANSIM THAT PRODUCED THIS
EVENINGS SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO LIFT A
BIT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH 2 AM WHEN THE VORT MAX
WILL BE OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. RAP MODEL SHOWS INCREASING
STABILITY OVERNIGHT SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT AS INVERSION DEVELOPS WITH LOW
LCLS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE DELAYED
UNTIL TUE NIGHT INTO WED. WE WILL SEE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
AGAIN ON MONDAY LABOR DAY...PROBABLY A FEW MORE EVENTS THAN WE SAW
TODAY IN CHARLES COUNTY...ST MARYS COUNTY...AND DC.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CWFA
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. KEPT THE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE SOILS
CONTINUE TO SATURATE.

THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING PERIODIC HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...REMNANTS OF ISAAC TRACK UP THE
OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS LOW PERSISTING
AROUND THE MASON-DIXON LINE. LIKELY POPS SPREAD EAST THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME. PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2.2 INCHES THROUGH THIS
TIME...SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY AND A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL
ALSO REMAIN. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL PERSIST
FROM SLY SFC FLOW UNDER THICK CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXTRA-TROPICAL ISAAC
REMNANTS CONTINUES LIKELY POPS...WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF BEHIND THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS REALLY IS NOT MUCH OF A COLD FRONT AS 16C 850
TEMPS BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. IN FACT A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR LATER IN THE WEEK...OWING MOSTLY TO INCREASED SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR TROUGH IN WAKE OF ISAAC REMNANTS CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY.
WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...THOUGH CONSIDERING HOW
PRECONDITIONED THE SOIL WILL BE LIKELIES WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO BE
PUT IN SOON.

IN A LOOK AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPR TROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A DEEPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT...BUT BEGIN SHIFTING NORTHWARD ON MONDAY.

CIGS AOB 040 WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS. PRECIP WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ON MONDAY. SUB VFR VSBYS AT MOST TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT WITH
SHRA/TSRA AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ONGOING PRECIPITATION EVENT FROM THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC CONTINUES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SFC FLOW WILL MAINLY BE SLY WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED IN THE SHRA/TSRA. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
THURSDAY BEFORE BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE THEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW AOB 15 KT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TOMORROW. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED...BUT A FEW SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE BAY OVERNIGHT BUT
BEGIN SHIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

SELY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS REMNANTS OF ISAAC
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. FLOW BECOMES SLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE REMNANTS TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES SHOULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING FOR
THE MONDAY HIGH TIDES. THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LEE/NWL
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...BAJ/NWL
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/LEE/NWL
MARINE...BAJ/LEE/NWL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LEE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
912 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

VAZ040-501-030200-
RAPPAHANNOCK VA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER VA-
912 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT RAPPAHANNOCK AND NORTHERN FAUQUIER
COUNTIES...

AT 911 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WAS
LOCATED 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF FLINT HILL...AND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE HUME AND FLINT HILL.

HEAVY RAIN...OF ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH THIS STORM WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE MILE AND COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND POORLY DRAINED AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3891 7798 3871 7792 3869 7812 3882 7817
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 265DEG 2KT 3879 7807

SMZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
933 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNE WASHINGTON        38.91N  77.01W
09/02/2012                   DISTRICT OF COLUMB DC   911 CALL CENTER

            RHODE ISLAND AVENUE NW CLOSED BETWEEN THE 100 AND 200
            BLOCK

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201150

KLW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
939 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNE WASHINGTON        38.91N  77.01W
09/02/2012                   DISTRICT OF COLUMB DC   911 CALL CENTER

            RHODE ISLAND AVENUE NW CLOSED BETWEEN THE 100 AND 200
            BLOCK

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201150

KLW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
944 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNE WASHINGTON        38.92N  77.01W
09/02/2012                   DISTRICT OF COLUMB DC   911 CALL CENTER

            1ST ST NE AND V ST NE CLOSED

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201152

KLW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
946 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N WASHINGTON          38.91N  77.02W
09/02/2012                   DISTRICT OF COLUMB DC   911 CALL CENTER

            RHODE ISLAND AVE NW AND FLORIDA AVE NW CLOSED

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201153

KLW

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