Severe Thunderstorm Warning 248, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROF WILL PERSIST ALONG THE APLCNS THRU WED WITH WARM
AND MOIST AMS IN THE MID-ATLC RGN. ELY LOW-LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO
SELY AS WEAK SFC LOPRES DVLPS THIS AFTN IN SRN VA.

WDSPRD CU FIELD HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN MUCH OF FCST AREA OWING TO
VERY MOIST AMS. TSTMS WILL CONT IN POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ADDITIONAL
SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL DVLP EWD AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES.

STEEP LAPSE RATES THRU H7 AND ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MSTR WILL YIELD MDT
CAPE THIS AFTN...BUT SHEAR IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. HOWEVER...
DP MSTR PROFILE AMID THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY LOW
FRZG LVLS COULD LEAD TO A DMGG WIND AND HAIL THREAT FOR ANY DP
CNVCTN...AS HAS BEEN NOTED THUS FAR IN GRANT CTY WV.

SHWRS WILL WANE THIS EVE...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD SHWR MAY OCCUR OVNGT.
ALTHOUGH DVLPMT OF LOW CLDS IS UNCERTAIN OVNGT...FOG SEEMS MORE
CERTAIN OWING TO PERSISTENT BNDRY LYR MSTR. MINIMA IN UPR 60S-MID
70S WILL BE COMMON.

WITH STAGNANT AMS...CU FIELD SHOULD DVLP QUICKLY AGAIN WED MRNG.
SHWRS AND TSTMS ONCE AGAIN CAN BE XPCD DURG THE DAY ON WED WITH
TROF RMNG ALONG APLCNS AND WEAK CDFNT APRCHG RGN. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SWD ADVCMT OF THE BNDRY DURG THE DAY...SO
POPS WERE FOCUSED IN NWRN PORTION OF FCST AREA. MAXIMA IN MID-UPR
80S XPCD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THU...ALLOWING THE
MID-ATLC TO DRY OUT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK SFC
TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA LATE THU INTO FRI...THE AREA
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A WARM-UP
BOTH DAYS... ESPECIALLY FRI. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT CHALLENGE
SOME OF THE HOTTER VALUES THIS YEAR...BUT TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH THE M90S EACH AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY FOR NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE THE BUILD-UP TO A FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING DOWN FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEK...DRAGGING ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER THIS WEEKEND. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...A LARGE BERMUDA HIGH
WILL CREATE A FETCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD BOTH
SAT AND SUN. SHOWERS AND TSTMS OF AN ISOLATED NATURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE L90S HIGHER
HUMIDITY THAN IN PAST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CIGS 3.0-4.0 KFT WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS AFTN. ELY WINDS WILL BCM
VRB-LGT SLY THRU WED. WEAKLY-CAPPED AMS WILL SUPPORT SHWRS AND
TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE.

OVNGT LULL IN PCPN XPCD. ALTHOUGH LOW CIG DVLPMT IS VERY UNCERTAIN
TNGT...FOG IS A PSBLTY OWING TO CONTD HIGH DEWPT TEMPS. SHWRS AND
TSTMS LKLY TO DVLP AGAIN ON WED.

A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEEKEND WILL SEE THE RETURN
OF MOISTURE AND CUMULUS FIELD...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TSTMS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ELY WIND WILL BCM SELY AS WEAK SFC LOPRES DVLPS IN SRN VA. LGT AND
VRB WINDS XPCD THIS AFTN THRU WED MRNG BFR THEY INCR SLGTLY FROM
THE S. NO HEADLINES XPCD ATTM...ALTHOUGH SLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF GUSTS FROM CHANNELING.

GENERALLY LIGHT SLY WINDS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
SLY CHANNELING WILL OCCUR EACH AFTN/EVE. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON INTO TUE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

KRAMAR/GMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1101 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
011000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
1101 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE MOUNTAINS. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-011000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
1101 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KRAMAR

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
215 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

VAZ028-WVZ050-055-311900-
HARDY WV-HAMPSHIRE WV-FREDERICK VA-
215 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT HARDY...HAMPSHIRE AND FREDERICK
COUNTIES...

AT 215 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AUGUSTA TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF
DELRAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE DELRAY...SHANKS...AUGUSTA...CAPON
SPRINGS...YELLOW SPRING...YELLOW SPRING AND LEHEW.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3937 7854 3916 7839 3910 7859 3929 7878
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 242DEG 8KT 3926 7867 3914 7857

HTS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
315 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

MDZ501-502-WVZ050-504-311945-
HAMPSHIRE WV-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY MD-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY MD-EASTERN MINERAL WV-
315 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT HAMPSHIRE...EXTREME WESTERN
ALLEGANY...CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY AND EASTERN MINERAL
COUNTIES...

AT 315 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RAWLINGS TO 2 MILES NORTH OF
WAPOCOMO TO 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF SHANKS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE FORT ASHBY.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3965 7879 3954 7856 3937 7844 3927 7867
      3939 7877 3950 7897
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 231DEG 5KT 3951 7890 3943 7873
          3935 7866

HTS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
320 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

VAZ027-028-030-031-312000-
SHENANDOAH VA-WARREN VA-CLARKE VA-FREDERICK VA-
320 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT SHENANDOAH...WARREN...CLARKE AND
FREDERICK COUNTIES...

AT 320 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF
STEPHENS CITY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE STEPHENS CITY...MILLWOOD PIKE...WINCHESTER
AND GREENWOOD.

PENNY-SIZE TO NICKEL-SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN BRING DOWN LARGE
TREE BRANCHES. TAKE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3925 7809 3891 7817 3894 7837 3914 7836
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 254DEG 10KT 3909 7829

HTS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
425 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

MDZ004-009-VAZ042-053-312115-
FREDERICK MD-MONTGOMERY MD-LOUDOUN VA-FAIRFAX VA-
425 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT FREDERICK...MONTGOMERY...LOUDOUN AND
FAIRFAX COUNTIES...

AT 426 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF COUNTRYSIDE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE LANSDOWNE...POOLESVILLE AND BOYDS.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3929 7754 3930 7725 3896 7731 3900 7747
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 177DEG 18KT 3904 7738

HTS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
427 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

MDZ003-VAZ028-WVZ051>053-312115-
WASHINGTON MD-MORGAN WV-JEFFERSON WV-BERKELEY WV-FREDERICK VA-
427 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT WASHINGTON...MORGAN...JEFFERSON...
BERKELEY AND FREDERICK COUNTIES...

AT 428 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SHANGHAI...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE MARTINSBURG.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING...AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. REMAIN ALERT...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED.

PENNY-SIZE TO NICKEL-SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN BRING DOWN LARGE
TREE BRANCHES. TAKE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3961 7791 3939 7787 3938 7824 3956 7827
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 263DEG 14KT 3948 7814

HTS