Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
920 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CDFNT ACRS SRN VA ATTM. THE AFTN TSTMS HV SETTLED S OF CWFA INVOF
THAT ZONE...XTNDG WWD INTO KY. HWVR...THERMAL/DEWPT GRADIENT
STILL ACROSS PA. THERE/S A RIBBON OF 70+ F DEWPTS ACRS CWFA...
MARKING A ZN OF ADDTL INSTBY. A NEW BATCH OF TSTMS DVLPD IN THE
PTMC HIGHLANDS IN RESPONSE TO THAT...AND HV MVD INTO NRN SHEN VLY.
HWVR...00Z LWX RAOB LRGLY CAPPED.

WHILE MOST OF THE AREA HAS BEEN WORKED OVER...AND A CAP IS IN
PLACE...THE THREAT OF FURTHER SVR WX IS SLIM BUT NOT ZERO. AFTER
COORD W/ SPC...HV CANCELLED SVR TSTM WATCH. HWVR AS CELL IN SWRN
FREDERICK CNTY VA HAS PROVED...THERE MAY STILL BE A STRAY TSTM
TNGT...AND AN ADDTL WRNG OR TWO PSBL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CDFNT WL BE STALLED S OF CWFA TMRW. SINCE DRY AIR ADVECTION WL BE
MINIMAL...A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WL STILL BE LINGERING. GIVEN
THE INHERENT INSTBY AND THE PRESENCE OF A FOCUSING BNDRY...THE RISK
FOR TSTM DVLPMNT REMAINS. HV CHC-LKLY POPS IN GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...EACH SERVING TO FOCUS PRECIP. SOME OF THE PRECIP COULD
REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...HELPING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS KCHO. RECENT RAINFALL FROM AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR PATCHY BR LATE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME
T-STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KCHO.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TSTMS HV PUSHED S OF THE WATERS. HWVR...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
SOUTH OF THE CWFA.

&&

.CLIMATE...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/WOODY!
LONG TERM...WOODY!/GMS
AVIATION...LASORSA
MARINE...HTS/GMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
856 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
091000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
856 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NO LONGER REQUIRED TONIGHT. PLEASE FORWARD
ANY DAMAGE REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-091000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
856 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NO LONGER REQUIRED TONIGHT. PLEASE FORWARD
ANY DAMAGE REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HTS

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