Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
418 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH BY MONDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SPECIAL 18Z KIAD RAOB WAS COMPLETED. IT SHOWED DRIER AIR/LESS
INSTABILITY THAN EXPECTED AND ALSO LESS CAPE THAN THE MODIFIED
12Z SOUNDING INDICATED. ATMOSPHERE STILL HAS NOT RECOVERED WELL IN
THE WAKE OF LAST EVENING/S CONVECTION. THIS WOULD TEND TO BE A
HINDRANCE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND A REPEAT OF LAST EVENING/S SEVERE EVENT APPEARS
UNLIKELY.

STILL CAN/T DISCOUNT THE FACT THAT THERE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA AND ANY SHORTWAVE WOULD ALSO SERVE AS A
LIFTING MECHANISM. DESPITE WEAKER INSTABILITY...WINDS/SHEAR ARE
NOT BAD AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP WHICH WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD PROPAGATE EAST AND BE OUT
OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE EVENING FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SINK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY TEND TO FOCUS
THE BULK OF ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH
VALLEY AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE.

IT DOES NOT LOOK AS HOT ON SUNDAY...AND COMBINATION OF
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS KEEPS CWA BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR CRITERIA FROM THE CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA OVER
TOWARD FREDERICKSBURG. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE OPTED NOT TO
ISSUE ANY NEW HEAT HEADLINES FOR SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY...WHICH MAY
KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CWA. BUT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BACK ACROSS THE CWA.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WITH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD BEING THE HOTTEST WITH MID TO
UPPER 90S POSSIBLE FOR MAXIMA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OR
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE STILL LOOKS FAIRLY DRY WITH
LESS INSTABILITY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THE TAF SIDES HAS LESSENED. FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY...PERHAPS SINKING SOUTH
TOWARD CHO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES/MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP THAN EXPECTED.
ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS JUICED AS YESTERDAY...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SCATTERED
STORMS COULD STILL AFFECT THE WATERS /ESPECIALLY TIDAL
POTOMAC/LOWER MD BAY/ WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING.

NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
SEVERAL NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS ARE EITHER COMPLETELY DOWN
OR CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE INTERRUPTIONS IN SERVICE THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY ARE...FROSTBURG...HAGERSTOWN...
CHARLOTTESVILLE...MANASSAS... FREDERICKSBURG AND PIKESVILLE. TECHS
WERE NOTIFIED AND CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003>007-
     009>011-013-014-016>018.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050>057-501-502.
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

BPP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
420 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
011000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
420 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. REFER TO THE LATEST HAZARD MESSAGE /NPWLWX/
FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY. PLEASE RELAY ANY
REPORTS OF STRONG WIND OR HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-011000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
420 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. REFER TO THE
LATEST HAZARD MESSAGE /NPWLWX/ FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND
WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY. PLEASE RELAY ANY
REPORTS OF STRONG WIND OR HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

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