River Flood Warning 22, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
452 PM EST WED DEC 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MIDDAY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE MID
ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ACTION PATTERN
CONTINUES NEXT WEEK WITH PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN NORTH CAROLINA TAKING OVER ATTM. A
CLEARING LINE IS MOVING UP I-95 TWD THE DC METRO AREA. HWVR...PCPN
FILLING BACK IN ACRS THE SHEN VLY.

TEMPS E OF THE BLURDG HV SLOWLY RISEN TAFTN AHD OF THE PARENT LOW.
MOST SITES ALONG I-95 NOW ABV FRZG...AND REPORTING JUST RA. MESO
OBS REPORTING A FEW POCKETS OF LWR 30S FOR UPR MONT CNTY AND NRN
BURBS OF BALT. FRZG RA BCMG MORE PREDOMINANT FOR THE SHEN VLY...
THO SNW/SLEET STILL COMMON FAR WEST.

BASED ON LTST TRENDS...HV CANX WINTER WX ADVY FOR INSIDE DC/BALT
BELTWAYS AS WELL AS PW CNTY. ADVY FOR MONTGOMERY/NRN
BALTCO/HARFORD CONTINUE THRU 7PM...MORE FOR COOLER POCKETS ALONG
THE NRN/WRN EDGE. THE REST WL REMAIN IN EFFECT OVNGT...BASED ON
IMPACTS OF UPR LOW...WHICH WL STILL ROTATE THRU TNGT.

MAIN STORY FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. BUFKIT PROFILES DO SHOW
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWFA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR ALL THE CWFA EXCEPT NORTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA PIEDMONT
WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY LEAST LIKELY TO HAVE 40 KT GUSTS.
HOWEVER...WITH ALL THE ICING AND HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE W CWFA...IT
WONT TAKE 40 KT GUSTS TO DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER RIGHT ABOVE FREEZING FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. FOR AREAS
WEST...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING TO THE LOWER 20S OUT IN
THE HIGHLANDS. RE-FREEZE OF PRECIPITATION ON ROADS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS AREAS W OF I-95. MORNING COMMUTERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
OSCILLATING PATTERN OF TRANQUIL AND STORMY WEATHER CONTINUING. IN
THIS CASE IT IS TRANQUIL FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE/LOW CROSSING THE
MID ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING AS STRONGER WINDS FROM
EARLIER IN THE DAY SLOWLY EASE. UPSLOPE SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGH THE
NIGHT ALLEGHENY FRONT AND WEST. WAVE CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE WITH
THE DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 20S PIEDMONT AND
WEST...UPR 20S TO NEAR 30F COASTAL PLAINS/BALT-WASH.

FRIDAY...WELCOME TRANQUILITY AND SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL INCREASINGLY FILTER THE SUNSHINE FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 30S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AROUND 40F EAST. SOME MID 40S SOUTH OF DC POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST TO THE ERN CONUS WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADING NORTHEAST UP
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. ANOTHER SNOWY EVENT...THOUGH EVERYTHING
LOOKS LIGHT/SUB WARNING LEVEL AS THE TRUE CYCLOGENESIS IS DELAYED
UNTIL EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. TIMING OF THIS DEVELOPMENT
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. WITH THE OPEN WAVE PASSING...THIS EVENT
LOOKS LIKE THE MONDAY WAVE THAT PRODUCED 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
FAR BALT-WASH METRO SUBURBS WITH RAIN SOUTHEAST FROM DC. WITH
INITIAL PRECIP SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT SNOW/SLEET AT ONSET WITH THE
RAIN LINE SLOWLY SLIDING NORTH. PER RECENT EVENTS THE PROGRESSION OF
THE RAIN LINE WAS SLOWED...DO NOT EXPECT A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 12Z GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE WEATHER FOR
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS FEATURES YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SRN CONUS AND IMPACTING THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTH IN THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
MAINTAINS A NERN CONUS BLOCK WITH CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC. WITH PRECIP POSSIBLE EITHER WAY...
SCALED DOWN LIKELY HPC POPS TO CHANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NW WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THURSDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. OTW...VFR WITH DRY CONDS. NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW/SLEET
TO THE BALT-WASH METROS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDS ANTICIPATED. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. HAVE RAISED
A GALE WARNING FOR THE MID BAY AND MIDDLE AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
FOR TONIGHT. GUSTS WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SMALL LINE SEGMENTS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND BY EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY. A GALE
WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL THE WATERS.

NWLY GALES SHOULD END EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. EXPECT AN SCA FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...MAY EASE ENOUGH TO NOT
EXTEND INTO FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD. NEXT SYSTEM
PASSES THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION ON SATURDAY AND IS WEAKER/DEVELOPS
EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES. ANOMALIES HAVE REACHED JUST ABOVE A FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HIGH TIDE.

WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS REMAIN OUT
OF THE E/SE. WHEN LOW PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST.
IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE WATER LEVELS TO DECREASE...SO CONTINUED
THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ501-502.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ003>007-
     009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ003>005.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ007-011-
     014-017-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ006-
     007-009.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-052>055-057-501>504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-501.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ050-051-
     055-501>506.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-501>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ052-053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     535-538>540.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-535-
     538>540.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ533-534-536-537-
     541>543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS/NWL
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/KLW
MARINE...BAJ/NWL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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