Alert archive / Maryland / River Flood Warnings in 2012

River Flood Warning 2, NWS Baltimore/Washington

October 28, 2012Frederick County, Maryland

NWS Baltimore/Washington issued this river flood warning at Oct 28, 2012, 4:43 PM EDT for Frederick County, Maryland. It took effect at Oct 29, 2012, 9:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 45 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 28, 2012, 4:43 PM EDT (20:43 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 29, 2012, 9:00 PM EDT
Expired
Oct 31, 2012, 5:36 PM EDT
In force
45 hr
Issued by
NWS Baltimore/Washington
Flood severity
Major

County Frederick County, MD

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Monocacy River near Frederick at Interstate 70 (FDKM2). The gauge peaked at 21.72 ft at Oct 30, 2012, 8:00 PM EDT.

actionminormoderatemajor102010/2810/2910/3010/3111/01
Action stage
13 ft
Minor stage
15 ft
Moderate stage
17 ft
Major stage
20 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 01643000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

138 
WGUS41 KLWX 282043
FLWLWX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
443 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VA HAS ISSUED A FLOOD 
WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MARYLAND... 

  MONOCACY RIVER NEAR FREDERICK AFFECTING FREDERICK COUNTY

MAJOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE MONOCACY AS A RESULT OF EXTREMELY 
HEAVY RAINFALL OF FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES ACROSS THE BASIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROADWAY...THIS IS HOW MOST 
FLOOD DEATHS RESULT.  

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR 
LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION OUTLET.

&&

MDC021-291043-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FL.W.0002.121030T0800Z-000000T0000Z/
/FDKM2.3.ER.121030T0800Z.121031T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
443 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VA HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE MONOCACY RIVER NEAR FREDERICK.
* FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 3 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 2.3 FEET AND STEADY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.  
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND 
  CREST NEAR 22.7 FEET BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 24.0 FEET...WATER APPROACHES URBANA PIKE NEAR MONOCACY 
  NATIONAL BATTLEFIELD.
* HISTORICAL COMPARISON...THIS CREST WOULD BE THE HIGHEST SINCE 1996.

&& 

RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED     8PM  8PM  8AM  8PM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   MON  MON  TUE  TUE   STG DAY TIME

MONOCACY RIVER
FREDERICK     15.0  2.3 SUN 3 PM   2.8  7.5 17.9 22.7  22.7 TUE 8 PM 

$$

JE
13 follow-up statements
579 
WGUS81 KLWX 290226
FLSLWX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 
1026 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MARYLAND...
  MONOCACY RIVER NEAR FREDERICK AFFECTING FREDERICK COUNTY 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROADWAY...THIS IS HOW MOST 
FLOOD DEATHS RESULT.  

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR 
LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION OUTLET.

&&

MDC021-291026-
/O.CON.KLWX.FL.W.0002.121030T0800Z-000000T0000Z/
/FDKM2.3.ER.121030T0800Z.121031T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1026 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MONOCACY RIVER NEAR FREDERICK.
* FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 9 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 2.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND 
  CREST NEAR 22.6 FEET BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 24.0 FEET...WATER APPROACHES URBANA PIKE NEAR MONOCACY 
  NATIONAL BATTLEFIELD.

&& 


RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED     2AM  8AM  2PM  8PM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   MON  MON  MON  MON   STG DAY TIME

MONOCACY RIVER
FREDERICK     15.0  2.3 SUN 9 PM   2.5  2.8  3.8  7.0  22.6 TUE 8 PM 

$$
520 
WGUS81 KLWX 291036
FLSLWX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 
636 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MARYLAND...
 
  MONOCACY RIVER NEAR FREDERICK AFFECTING FREDERICK COUNTY 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROADWAY...THIS IS HOW MOST 
FLOOD DEATHS RESULT.  

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR 
LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION OUTLET.

&&

MDC021-291836-
/O.EXT.KLWX.FL.W.0002.121030T0757Z-121101T1030Z/
/FDKM2.3.ER.121030T0757Z.121031T0000Z.121101T0430Z.NO/
636 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MONOCACY RIVER NEAR FREDERICK.
* FROM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT 5 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 2.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND CREST 
  NEAR 22.5 FEET BY EARLY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 24.0 FEET...WATER APPROACHES URBANA PIKE NEAR MONOCACY 
  NATIONAL BATTLEFIELD.
* HISTORICAL COMPARISON...THIS CREST IS SIMILAR TO THE FLOOD OF 1996.

&& 


RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED     2PM  8PM  2AM  8AM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   MON  MON  TUE  TUE   STG DAY TIME

MONOCACY RIVER
FREDERICK     15.0  2.3 MON 5 AM   4.3  7.7 13.3 18.5  22.5 TUE 8 PM 

$$

JE
347 
WGUS81 KLWX 291503
FLSLWX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 
1102 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MARYLAND...
 
  MONOCACY RIVER NEAR FREDERICK AFFECTING FREDERICK COUNTY 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS FORECAST TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD. THE CURRENT PROJECTION IS
FOR THE WORST FLOOD SINCE HURRICANE AGNES IN THE MONOCACY BASIN.
INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD RUSH PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION.

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR 
LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION OUTLET.

&&

MDC021-292302-
/O.EXT.KLWX.FL.W.0002.121029T2300Z-121101T1702Z/
/FDKM2.3.ER.121029T2300Z.121030T1700Z.121101T1102Z.NO/
1102 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MONOCACY RIVER NEAR FREDERICK.
* FROM EARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 10 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 2.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND CREST 
  NEAR 31.9 FEET BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 30.0 FEET...WATER REACHES THE SECOND FLOOR OF GAMBRILL 
  MILL ON THE MONOCACY NATIONAL BATTLEFIELD.
* CREST HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO HURRICANE ELOISE IN 1975 
  AND WOULD BE THE SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD.

&& 

RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED     2PM  8PM  2AM  8AM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   MON  MON  TUE  TUE   STG DAY TIME

MONOCACY RIVER
FREDERICK     15.0  2.7 MON 10 AM  7.5 17.1 24.3 28.9  31.9 TUE 1 PM 

$$

JE
951 
WGUS81 KLWX 292100
FLSLWX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 
500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MARYLAND...
 
  MONOCACY RIVER NEAR FREDERICK AFFECTING FREDERICK COUNTY 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROADWAY...THIS IS HOW MOST 
FLOOD DEATHS RESULT.  

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR 
LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION OUTLET.

&&

MDC021-300500-
/O.EXT.KLWX.FL.W.0002.121030T0100Z-121101T1334Z/
/FDKM2.3.ER.121030T0100Z.121030T1800Z.121101T0734Z.NO/
500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MONOCACY RIVER NEAR FREDERICK.
* FROM LATE THIS EVENING UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT 4 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS EVENING AND CREST 
  NEAR 31.5 FEET BY MID-AFTERNOON TOMORROW. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 30.0 FEET...WATER REACHES THE SECOND FLOOR OF GAMBRILL 
  MILL ON THE MONOCACY NATIONAL BATTLEFIELD.

&& 

RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED          8PM  2AM  8AM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME        MON  TUE  TUE   STG DAY TIME

MONOCACY RIVER
FREDERICK     15.0  6.2 MON 4 PM       15.0 22.7 28.6  31.5 TUE 2 PM 

$$

JE
303 
WGUS81 KLWX 300243
FLSLWX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 
1043 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
VIRGINIA...
 
  GOOSE CREEK NEAR LEESBURG AFFECTING LOUDOUN COUNTY 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROADWAY...THIS IS HOW MOST 
FLOOD DEATHS RESULT.  

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR 
LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION OUTLET.

&&

VAC107-301043-
/O.EXT.KLWX.FL.W.0009.121030T0652Z-121031T1121Z/
/LEEV2.2.ER.121030T0652Z.121030T1800Z.121031T0521Z.NO/
1043 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GOOSE CREEK NEAR LEESBURG.
* FROM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 10 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND CREST 
  NEAR 17.0 FEET BY MID-AFTERNOON TOMORROW. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...WATER THREATENS SEVERAL HOMES SOUTH OF 
  LEESBURG. HIGHWAY 15 WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE CLOSED.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 17.3 FEET
  ON DEC 11 2003.  

&& 


RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED     2PM  8PM  2AM  8AM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   MON  MON  TUE  TUE   STG DAY TIME

GOOSE CREEK
LEESBURG      12.0  8.2 MON 10 PM 17.0 14.5 11.7  9.3  17.0 TUE 2 PM 

$$
635 
WGUS81 KLWX 300814
FLSLWX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 
414 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
VIRGINIA...
 
  GOOSE CREEK NEAR LEESBURG AFFECTING LOUDOUN COUNTY 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROADWAY...THIS IS HOW MOST 
FLOOD DEATHS RESULT.  

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR 
LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION OUTLET.

&&

VAC107-301614-
/O.EXT.KLWX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-121031T1300Z/
/LEEV2.2.ER.121030T0558Z.121030T1800Z.121031T0700Z.NO/
414 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GOOSE CREEK NEAR LEESBURG.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. 
* AT 4 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* RECENT ACTIVITY...THE MAXIMUM RIVER STAGE IN THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT
  4 AM TUESDAY WAS 13.2 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 17.0 FEET BY 
  MID-AFTERNOON TODAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...WATER THREATENS SEVERAL HOMES SOUTH OF 
  LEESBURG. HIGHWAY 15 WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE CLOSED.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 17.3 FEET
  ON DEC 11 2003.  

&& 


RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED     2PM  8PM  2AM  8AM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   TUE  TUE  WED  WED   STG DAY TIME

GOOSE CREEK
LEESBURG      12.0 13.2 TUE 4 AM  17.0 15.8 12.0 10.0  17.0 TUE 2 PM 

$$
226 
WGUS81 KLWX 301350
FLSLWX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 
950 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MARYLAND...
  MONOCACY RIVER NEAR FREDERICK AFFECTING FREDERICK COUNTY 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROADWAY...THIS IS HOW MOST 
FLOOD DEATHS RESULT.  

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR 
LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION OUTLET.

&&

MDC021-302150-
/O.CON.KLWX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-121101T0400Z/
/FDKM2.3.ER.000000T0000Z.121031T0000Z.121031T2200Z.NO/
950 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MONOCACY RIVER NEAR FREDERICK.
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 
* AT 9 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* RECENT ACTIVITY...THE MAXIMUM RIVER STAGE IN THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT
  9 AM TUESDAY WAS 19.5 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 21.6 FEET BY 
  EARLY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY 
  TOMORROW EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...WATER REACHES GAMBRILL MILL ON THE MONOCACY
  NATIONAL BATTLEFIELD.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 20.6 FEET
  ON APR 18 2011.  

&& 

RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED     2PM  8PM  2AM  8AM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   TUE  TUE  WED  WED   STG DAY TIME

MONOCACY RIVER
FREDERICK     15.0 19.5 TUE 9 AM  20.4 21.6 20.5 19.1  21.6 TUE 8 PM 

$$

JE
100 
WGUS81 KLWX 301915
FLSLWX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 
315 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MARYLAND...
 
  MONOCACY RIVER NEAR FREDERICK AFFECTING FREDERICK COUNTY 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROADWAY...THIS IS HOW MOST 
FLOOD DEATHS RESULT.  

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR 
LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION OUTLET.

&&

MDC021-310315-
/O.EXT.KLWX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-121101T0300Z/
/FDKM2.3.ER.000000T0000Z.121030T2300Z.121031T2100Z.NO/
315 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MONOCACY RIVER NEAR FREDERICK.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. 
* AT 2 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* RECENT ACTIVITY...THE MAXIMUM RIVER STAGE IN THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT
  2 PM TUESDAY WAS 20.9 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 21.0 FEET BY 
  EARLY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...WATER REACHES GAMBRILL MILL ON THE MONOCACY
  NATIONAL BATTLEFIELD.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 20.6 FEET
  ON APR 18 2011.  

&& 

RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED     2PM  8PM  2AM  8AM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   TUE  TUE  WED  WED   STG DAY TIME

MONOCACY RIVER
FREDERICK     15.0 20.9 TUE 2 PM  21.0 21.0 20.3 18.8  21.0 TUE 7 PM 

$$

JE
117 
WGUS81 KLWX 310127
FLSLWX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 
927 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
VIRGINIA...
 
  GOOSE CREEK NEAR LEESBURG AFFECTING LOUDOUN COUNTY 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROADWAY...THIS IS HOW MOST 
FLOOD DEATHS RESULT.  

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR 
LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION OUTLET.

&&

VAC107-310927-
/O.EXT.KLWX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-121031T1800Z/
/LEEV2.3.ER.121030T0558Z.121030T1815Z.121031T1200Z.NO/
927 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GOOSE CREEK NEAR LEESBURG.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 
* AT 9 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* RECENT ACTIVITY...THE MAXIMUM RIVER STAGE IN THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT
  9 PM TUESDAY WAS 19.1 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TOMORROW MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...WATER THREATENS SEVERAL HOMES SOUTH OF 
  LEESBURG. HIGHWAY 15 WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE CLOSED.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 14.5 FEET
  ON APR 17 2011.  

&& 


RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED     2AM  8AM  2PM  8PM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   WED  WED  WED  WED   STG DAY TIME

GOOSE CREEK
LEESBURG      12.0 17.3 TUE 9 PM  15.1 12.0  9.5  7.7       

$$
900 
WGUS81 KLWX 310744
FLSLWX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 
344 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
VIRGINIA...
 
  GOOSE CREEK NEAR LEESBURG AFFECTING LOUDOUN COUNTY
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MARYLAND...VIRGINIA...WEST VIRGINIA...
 
  POTOMAC RIVER AT POINT OF ROCKS AFFECTING FREDERICK AND LOUDOUN 
  COUNTIES 
  POTOMAC RIVER NEAR LITTLE FALLS AFFECTING MONTGOMERY AND FAIRFAX 
  COUNTIES 
  SHENANDOAH RIVER AT MILLVILLE AFFECTING CLARKE AND JEFFERSON 
  COUNTIES 
  RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER AT REMINGTON AFFECTING CULPEPER AND FAUQUIER 
  COUNTIES 
  CONOCOCHEAGUE CREEK AT FAIRVIEW AFFECTING WASHINGTON COUNTY 
  OPEQUON CREEK NEAR MARTINSBURG AFFECTING BERKELEY AND JEFFERSON 
  COUNTIES 
  ANTIETAM CREEK NEAR SHARPSBURG AFFECTING WASHINGTON COUNTY 
  MONOCACY RIVER NEAR FREDERICK AFFECTING FREDERICK COUNTY 
  CACAPON RIVER NEAR GREAT CACAPON AFFECTING MORGAN COUNTY 
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MARYLAND...VIRGINIA...WEST VIRGINIA...
  POTOMAC RIVER AT HARPERS FERRY AFFECTING WASHINGTON...LOUDOUN AND 
  JEFFERSON COUNTIES 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROADWAY...THIS IS HOW MOST 
FLOOD DEATHS RESULT.  

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR 
LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION OUTLET.

&&

MDC021-311544-
/O.EXT.KLWX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-121101T0100Z/
/FDKM2.3.ER.000000T0000Z.121031T0345Z.121031T1900Z.NO/
344 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS EVENING...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MONOCACY RIVER NEAR FREDERICK.
* UNTIL THIS EVENING. 
* AT 2 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* RECENT ACTIVITY...THE MAXIMUM RIVER STAGE IN THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT
  2 AM WEDNESDAY WAS 21.8 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  MID-AFTERNOON TODAY.
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...WATER REACHES GAMBRILL MILL ON THE MONOCACY
  NATIONAL BATTLEFIELD.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 18.1 FEET
  ON DEC 27 2009.  

&& 


RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED     2PM  8PM  2AM  8AM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   WED  WED  THU  THU   STG DAY TIME

MONOCACY RIVER
FREDERICK     15.0 21.4 WED 2 AM  15.0 13.0 11.1  9.8       

$$

MDC043-VAC107-WVC037-311544-
/O.CON.KLWX.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HFEW2.1.ER.121031T1620Z.121031T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
344 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE POTOMAC RIVER AT HARPERS FERRY.
* FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 2 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 18.5 FEET BY MID-AFTERNOON TODAY. 
  ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 18.5 FEET...THE EMPLOYEE PARKING LOT AT HISTORIC 
  HARPERS FERRY FLOODS.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 19.1 FEET
  ON MAY 19 2011.  

&& 


RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED     2PM  8PM  2AM  8AM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   WED  WED  THU  THU   STG DAY TIME

POTOMAC RIVER
HARPERS FERRY 18.0 14.9 WED 2 AM  18.5                 18.5 WED 2 PM 

$$

MDC021-VAC107-311544-
/O.EXT.KLWX.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-121102T0000Z/
/PORM2.2.ER.121031T0355Z.121101T0000Z.121101T1800Z.NO/
344 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE POTOMAC RIVER AT POINT OF ROCKS.
* UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. 
* AT 3 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* RECENT ACTIVITY...THE MAXIMUM RIVER STAGE IN THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT
  3 AM WEDNESDAY WAS 17.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 21.1 FEET BY 
  EARLY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  MID-AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO COVER THE C AND O CANAL 
  TOWPATH NEAR POINT OF ROCKS AND BRUNSWICK.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 21.4 FEET
  ON JAN 27 2010.  

&& 


RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED     2PM  8PM  2AM  8AM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   WED  WED  THU  THU   STG DAY TIME

POTOMAC RIVER
POINT OF ROCK 16.0 17.0 WED 3 AM  20.1 21.1 19.4 17.9  21.1 WED 8 PM 

$$

MDC031-VAC059-311543-
/O.EXT.KLWX.FL.W.0018.121031T1200Z-121101T2024Z/
/BRKM2.1.ER.121031T1200Z.121101T0000Z.121101T1424Z.NO/
344 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE POTOMAC RIVER NEAR LITTLE FALLS.
* FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 3 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING AND CREST NEAR 
  10.7 FEET BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING .
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...WATER COVERS THE TOWPATH BETWEEN SWAINS 
  LOCK AND PENNYFIELD LOCK...MILEPOSTS 17 TO 19. THE BASEMENTS OF THE
  EDWARDS FERRY LOCKHOUSE AND RILEYS LOCKHOUSE ARE FLOODED.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 9.8 FEET 
  ON SEP 9 2011.  

&& 


RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED     2PM  8PM  2AM  8AM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   WED  WED  THU  THU   STG DAY TIME

POTOMAC RIVER
LITTLE FALLS  10.0  9.6 WED 3 AM  10.4 10.7 10.6 10.2  10.7 WED 8 PM 

$$

WVC003-037-311543-
/O.EXT.KLWX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-121101T0300Z/
/MBGW2.2.ER.121030T0654Z.121031T0345Z.121031T2100Z.NO/
344 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS EVENING...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OPEQUON CREEK NEAR MARTINSBURG.
* UNTIL THIS EVENING. 
* AT 3 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* RECENT ACTIVITY...THE MAXIMUM RIVER STAGE IN THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT
  3 AM WEDNESDAY WAS 13.4 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 12.5 FEET...THE CREEK IS WELL OUT OF ITS BANKS. 
  PORTIONS OF STONEBRIDGE GOLF CLUB ARE FLOODED. GOLF COURSE ROAD 
  /COUNTY ROAD 36/ IS FLOODED NEAR THE STONE BRIDGE. FIELDS AND 
  BACKYARDS NEAR THE CREEK ARE FLOODED AND SOME RESIDENTS MAY NEED TO
  MOVE ITEMS TO HIGHER GROUND. SEVERAL OTHER ROADS ARE FLOODED...
  INCLUDING GRAPEVINE ROAD...DOUGLAS GROVE ROAD...AND PAYNES FORD 
  ROAD. BACKWATER FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON SMALL TRIBUTARIES...
  INCLUDING TUSCARORA CREEK.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 12.3 FEET
  ON MAY 18 2011.  

&& 


RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED     2PM  8PM  2AM  8AM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   WED  WED  THU  THU   STG DAY TIME

OPEQUON CREEK
MARTINSBURG   10.0 12.9 WED 3 AM  10.8  9.4  8.1  6.8       

$$

VAC043-WVC037-311543-
/O.EXT.KLWX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-121031T1900Z/
/MILW2.1.ER.121030T1850Z.121031T0400Z.121031T1300Z.NO/
344 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SHENANDOAH RIVER AT MILLVILLE.
* FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 3 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING AND CREST NEAR 
  10.2 FEET BY THIS MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
  LATE THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...PARTS OF BLOOMERY ROAD AND JOHN RISSLER 
  ROAD ARE FLOODED NEAR BLOOMERY WEST VIRGINIA. ONCE THESE ROADS 
  FLOOD...ACCESS TO HOMES IS IMPAIRED BUT THE HOMES THEMSELVES ARE 
  NOT IN ANY DANGER OF FLOODING. MOULTON PARK AND THE MILLVILLE BOAT 
  LAUNCH ARE ALSO FLOODED.

&& 


RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED     2PM  8PM  2AM  8AM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   WED  WED  THU  THU   STG DAY TIME

SHENANDOAH RIVER
MILLVILLE     10.0  9.6 WED 3 AM   9.3  8.2  7.8  7.2       

$$

VAC047-061-311337-
/O.EXT.KLWX.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-121031T1337Z/
/RENV2.1.ER.121030T1730Z.121030T2315Z.121031T0737Z.NO/
344 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS MORNING...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER AT REMINGTON.
* UNTIL THIS MORNING. 
* AT 3 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* RECENT ACTIVITY...THE MAXIMUM RIVER STAGE IN THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT
  3 AM WEDNESDAY WAS 15.5 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...TIN POT RUN ROAD AND SUMERDUCK ROAD NEAR 
  REMINGTON ARE FLOODED.

&& 


RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED     2PM  8PM  2AM  8AM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   WED  WED  THU  THU   STG DAY TIME

RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER
REMINGTON     15.0 15.2 WED 3 AM  10.8  8.7  7.3  6.8       

$$

MDC043-311543-
/O.EXT.KLWX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-121031T2000Z/
/FAVM2.1.ER.121030T1050Z.121030T2215Z.121031T1400Z.NO/
344 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONOCOCHEAGUE CREEK AT FAIRVIEW.
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. 
* AT 3 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* RECENT ACTIVITY...THE MAXIMUM RIVER STAGE IN THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT
  3 AM WEDNESDAY WAS 11.5 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...SEVERAL ROADS...INCLUDING WISHARD ROAD...
  KEMPS MILL ROAD...INDEPENDENCE ROAD...CRESS POND ROAD...AND WALNUT 
  POINT ROAD...ARE FLOODED NORTH OF WILLIAMSPORT.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 9.7 FEET 
  ON APR 15 2007.  

&& 


RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED     2PM  8PM  2AM  8AM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   WED  WED  THU  THU   STG DAY TIME

CONOCOCHEAGUE CREEK
FAIRVIEW      10.0 11.2 WED 3 AM   9.3  8.4  7.7  7.1       

$$

MDC043-311543-
/O.EXT.KLWX.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-121031T2100Z/
/SACM2.1.ER.121030T0224Z.121031T0345Z.121031T1500Z.NO/
344 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ANTIETAM CREEK NEAR SHARPSBURG.
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. 
* AT 3 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* RECENT ACTIVITY...THE MAXIMUM RIVER STAGE IN THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT
  3 AM WEDNESDAY WAS 9.8 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...WATER APPROACHES THE LOWEST CORNER OF THE 
  OLD BURNSIDE BRIDGE. BURNSIDE BRIDGE ROAD IS FLOODED AND CLOSED...
  AND TRAILS ALONGSIDE THE CREEK IN ANTIETAM BATTLEFIELD ARE FLOODED.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 8.4 FEET 
  ON APR 29 2011.  

&& 


RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED     2PM  8PM  2AM  8AM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   WED  WED  THU  THU   STG DAY TIME

ANTIETAM CREEK
SHARPSBURG    8.0  9.1 WED 3 AM   7.7  7.3  6.8  6.4       

$$

WVC065-311543-
/O.EXT.KLWX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-121031T2338Z/
/GCPW2.1.ER.121030T1223Z.121031T0000Z.121031T1738Z.NO/
344 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS EVENING...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CACAPON RIVER NEAR GREAT CACAPON.
* UNTIL THIS EVENING. 
* AT 2 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* RECENT ACTIVITY...THE MAXIMUM RIVER STAGE IN THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT
  2 AM WEDNESDAY WAS 15.1 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...RUNNING WATERS WAY BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 10.9 FEET
  ON APR 21 2008.  

&& 


RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED     2PM  8PM  2AM  8AM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   WED  WED  THU  THU   STG DAY TIME

CACAPON RIVER
GREAT CACAPON 9.0 12.0 WED 2 AM   8.9  7.9  7.3  6.7       

$$

VAC107-310814-
/O.CAN.KLWX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-121031T1800Z/
/LEEV2.3.ER.121030T0558Z.121030T1815Z.121031T0618Z.NO/
344 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE GOOSE CREEK NEAR LEESBURG.
* AT 3 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* NO FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...THE CREEK REACHES BANKFULL. SOME MINOR 
  OVERBANK FLOODING IS OCCURRING BETWEEN MIDDLEBURG AND OATLANDS.

&& 


RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED     2PM  8PM  2AM  8AM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   WED  WED  THU  THU   STG DAY TIME

GOOSE CREEK
LEESBURG      12.0 11.4 WED 3 AM   5.6  4.3  3.8  3.4       

$$
587 
WGUS81 KLWX 311310
FLSLWX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 
910 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MARYLAND...
 
  MONOCACY RIVER NEAR FREDERICK AFFECTING FREDERICK COUNTY 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROADWAY...THIS IS HOW MOST 
FLOOD DEATHS RESULT.  

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR 
LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION OUTLET.

&&

MDC021-312110-
/O.EXT.KLWX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-121101T0400Z/
/FDKM2.3.ER.000000T0000Z.121031T0345Z.121031T2200Z.NO/
910 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MONOCACY RIVER NEAR FREDERICK.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. 
* AT 8 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* RECENT ACTIVITY...THE MAXIMUM RIVER STAGE IN THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT
  8 AM WEDNESDAY WAS 21.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY THIS EVENING.

&& 

RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED     2PM  8PM  2AM  8AM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   WED  WED  THU  THU   STG DAY TIME

MONOCACY RIVER
FREDERICK     15.0 19.9 WED 8 AM  17.4 14.4 12.4 10.8     CRESTED  

$$

JE
460 
WGUS81 KLWX 311923
FLSLWX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 
323 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MARYLAND...
 
  MONOCACY RIVER NEAR FREDERICK AFFECTING FREDERICK COUNTY 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROADWAY...THIS IS HOW MOST 
FLOOD DEATHS RESULT.  

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR 
LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION OUTLET.

&&

MDC021-010253-
/O.EXT.KLWX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-121101T0253Z/
/FDKM2.3.ER.000000T0000Z.121031T0345Z.121031T2053Z.NO/
323 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS EVENING...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MONOCACY RIVER NEAR FREDERICK.
* UNTIL THIS EVENING. 
* AT 2 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* RECENT ACTIVITY...THE MAXIMUM RIVER STAGE IN THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT
  2 PM WEDNESDAY WAS 18.4 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MUCH OF PINECLIFF PARK AND RIVERMIST PARK 
  IN FREDERICK ARE FLOODED. BUCKEYSTOWN COMMUNITY PARK IS ALSO 
  FLOODED WITH WATER APPROACHING THE PARKING LOT. WATERS ARE ALSO 
  APPROACHING THE FREDERICK CITY WASTEWATER TREATMENT PLANT AND THE 
  BALLENGER CREEK WASTEWATER TREATMENT PLANT. SIGNIFICANT BACKWATER 
  FLOODING IS OCCURRING. SEVERAL ROADS WILL BE CLOSED ALONG THE RIVER
  AND ADJOINING CREEKS.

&& 

RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED     2PM  8PM  2AM  8AM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   WED  WED  THU  THU   STG DAY TIME

MONOCACY RIVER
FREDERICK     15.0 15.9 WED 2 PM       13.8 11.9 10.4     CRESTED  

$$

JE
237 
WGUS81 KLWX 312136
FLSLWX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 
536 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MARYLAND...
 
  MONOCACY RIVER NEAR FREDERICK AFFECTING FREDERICK COUNTY
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROADWAY...THIS IS HOW MOST 
FLOOD DEATHS RESULT.  

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR 
LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION OUTLET.

&&

MDC021-312206-
/O.CAN.KLWX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-121101T0253Z/
/FDKM2.3.ER.000000T0000Z.121031T0345Z.121031T1933Z.NO/
536 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE MONOCACY RIVER NEAR FREDERICK.
* AT 4 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* NO FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...TWO LOW-WATER CROSSINGS...ONE ON MICHAELS 
  MILL ROAD /STATE ROUTE 880/ IN BUCKEYSTOWN...AND ONE ON RETREAT 
  ROAD NORTH OF FREDERICK...BEGIN TO FLOOD.

&& 


RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED     2PM  8PM  2AM  8AM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   WED  WED  THU  THU   STG DAY TIME

MONOCACY RIVER
FREDERICK     15.0 14.1 WED 4 PM       13.8 11.9 10.4       

$$

HTS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Oct 28, 3:51 PM EDT, 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 28, 3:51 PM EDT, 52 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
351 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE SANDY REMAINS ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WASHINGTON D.C.
THE STORM IS FORECAST TO CURVE TOWARD THE COAST ON MONDAY...AND MOVE
INLAND NEAR THE JERSEY SHORE MONDAY NIGHT. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL THEN SLOWLY TRACK INLAND INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THIS LARGE STORM
WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SANDY IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...
POSITIONED WELL OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA BEFORE SWINGING
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE EARLY TUESDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO REFER TO
THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR UPDATES
TO THE POSITION/TRACK OF SANDY.

RAIN HAS BEEN ALIGNED ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LITTLE WESTERN MOVEMENT. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR
THIS AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING...AND FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THIS EXISTING AREA OF
RAINFALL. RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY BANDS WILL START TO BECOME
APPARENT. WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...LIKELY REACHING 40 TO 45 MPH PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THE START OF MONDAY...THE CENTER OF SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WASHINGTON. HOWEVER...AS WE
HAVE BEEN STRESSING...THIS IS AN EXPANSIVE STORM AND SO CONDITIONS
/WHICH ARE ALREADY BREEZY WITH RAIN SPREADING WEST OVER THE BAY/
WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND KEEP
GOING DOWNHILL AFTER THAT. ALL THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE IN
OUR GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECAST PRODUCTS...BUT JUST AS A SUMMARY
OF WHAT TO EXPECT:

RAINFALL/FLOODING...WILL BE DISCUSSED IN HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
FLOOD THREAT IS SIGNIFICANT SO PLEASE REFER TO THAT.

WINDS...WE ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES IN SPOTS...AND
THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO INCREASE. WE ARE EXPANDING THE HIGH
WIND WARNING TO START AT 8 AM MONDAY IN ALL AREAS...THOUGH IN SOME
OF THE WESTERN VALLEYS IT MAY STILL BE CLOSER TO NOON. A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS WINDS IS EXPECTED...LASTING
LIKELY WELL INTO TUESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. THIS
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINDS WILL DO DAMAGE AND CREATE POWER OUTAGES.

SNOWFALL...YES...SNOWFALL. WE RAISED A WINTER STORM WATCH THIS
MORNING FOR HIGHLAND/PENDLETON AND WESTERN GRANT/MINERAL. WE WILL
RETAIN IT BECAUSE THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER WE WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE CENTER TO ALLOW THE COLD AIR TO GET IN TO OUR
FORECAST AREA. BUT IF IT IS COLD ENOUGH...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
HEAVY SNOW...AND HEAVY SNOW COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS. EAST OF
THE WESTERN FRONT...THE SNOW THREAT IS EXTREMELY LOW.

TIDAL/COASTAL FLOODING...WILL BE DISCUSSED IN TIDAL/COASTAL SECTION
BELOW. THIS THREAT IS VERY COMPLEX SO REFER TO THAT SECTION FOR A
DETAILED DISCUSSION.

BOTTOM LINE...THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM WHICH WILL AFFECT
THE ENTIRE AREA REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE STORM CENTER IS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SUITE OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER BULLETINS/WARNINGS FOR
EVEN MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE IMPENDING STORM. ALSO PLEASE TAKE
THIS THREAT VERY SERIOUSLY...THIS IS GOING TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT
DISRUPTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. BE PREPARED TO AT LEAST
HUNKER DOWN FOR A WHILE...AND BE PREPARED FOR SOME SERIOUSLY
CHALLENGING CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE EXTENDED IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
PROLONGED UPSLOPE PERIOD IN THE FAR WEST. WHILE THE INTENSITY OF
SUCH AN EVENT WOULD BE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING COMPARED TO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK...IT KEEPS THE LIGHT PRECIP MACHINE TURNED ON...PROBABLY
THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT EVEN BEYOND THE WESTERN FRONT INTO THE REST OF THE
HIGHLANDS...MAYBE EVEN UP TO THE BLUE RIDGE.

FOR EVERYONE ELSE...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CALM AFTER THE
STORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM WINDS EXPECTED BEGINNING
MONDAY. EXPECT THE HUBS TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS ON MONDAY OF 25 TO
35 KT WITH GUSTS REACHING 45 TO 50 KT. SIMILAR OR STRONGER GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

RAIN WILL TILT NORTHWEST...MAKING IT TO THE HUBS LATER THIS EVENING
AND SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ONSET OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. THINKING
WAS THAT GUIDANCE WAS BRINGING THEM IN TOO EARLY...AND HAVE DELAYED
SEVERAL HOURS.

SEVERE IMPACTS ON AVIATION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS...EXTREME
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AT THE MAJOR TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...THE HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ALL THE VARIOUS
INLETS...AND FOR THE LOWERMOST PORTION OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.
IN THIS AREA...GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER/MIDDLE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER REMAINS UNDER A STORM
WARNING. BOTH OF THESE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY.

WINDS REACHING/EXCEEDING SCA CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...AND I ACTUALLY HAVE WIND
GUSTS MEETING SCA CRITERIA IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE COULD BUILD IN
AND WEAKEN THE WIND FIELDS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LATEST RAINFALL PROJECTIONS HAVE COME IN HIGHER...AND WE WILL
NOW SAY THAT 5-9 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE I-270 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE DC METRO AREA AND DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN MARYLAND.
AMOUNTS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER CLOSE TO THE BAY. 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN HIGHLANDS AND RAPPAHANNOCK BASIN...WITH
LOWER AMOUNTS OF JUST 1-3 INCHES IN THE STAUNTON/WAYNESBORO/
CHARLOTTESVILLE/HARRISONBURG AREAS.

OUR RAINFALL PROJECTIONS HAVE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN PER SIX HOUR
PERIOD FOR 24 HOURS IN THE AREA WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED. SOME FLASH FLOODING WOULD OCCUR IF MORE THAN THIS IS
EXPECTED...AND IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LOWER AMOUNTS IN AREAS WHERE
FALLEN LEAVES /OR PERHAPS OTHER WIND-DRIVEN DEBRIS/ MAY CLOG
DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. THESE FACTORS ALSO APPLY FOR LONGER-DURATION
STREAM FLOODING...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANT AND LENGTHY...
EVEN ON STREAMS THAT ARE USUALLY FAST TO RISE AND FALL.

THE FLOOD THREAT BEGINS LATE TONIGHT. THE SMALLER STREAM AND URBAN
FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN WE TURN ATTENTION TO
THE RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME...FIVE OF THOSE POINTS
/CONOCOCHEAGUE...MONOCACY...OPEQUON...SENECA...AND ANTIETAM/ ARE
FORECAST TO GO TO FLOOD. WE HAVE BEEN INCLUDING THAT IN THE FLOOD
WATCH BUT WARNING DECISIONS WILL LIKELY COME TONIGHT OR TOMORROW IF
THE FORECASTS HOLD...WHICH SO FAR...THEY HAVE.

IF EVERYTHING PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE CREST MAY NOT GET DOWN TO
LITTLE FALLS UNTIL FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIDAL SITUATION IS VERY COMPLEX AND EVEN A LITTLE BIT CONFUSING.
BUT WILL TRY TO BREAK IT DOWN HERE. TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE BEEN
BUILDING AND ARE IN THE 1 TO 2.5 FT RANGE ALREADY. THE LAST HIGH
TIDE WAS FAIRLY LOW AND THEREFORE WE DID NOT MEET CRITERIA...BUT
THIS ONE WE STAND A GOOD CHANCE. ADVISORY REMAINS OUT FOR ALEXANDRIA
AND THE ENTIRE WESTERN BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC.

AS THE NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE...WE SHOULD BLOW OUT
THE HIGH WATER IN MOST OF OUR TIDAL REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...WE WILL LEAVE THE EXISTING
ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL THE BLOWOUT STARTS. IT CAN ALWAYS BE
CANCELLED WHEN IT BEGINS.

ONCE THE STORM MOVES INLAND...WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND STILL BE QUITE STRONG. THIS
WILL PUSH WATER UP THE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC...AND AT THAT TIME THE
TIDAL FLOOD THREAT MARKEDLY INCREASES. HAVE RAISED A COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. A MAJOR FLOOD IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS POINT.
THE WIND FIELD BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN...SO IT
IS NOT YET CLEAR WHETHER WE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...GRADUALLY DROP...
OR PERHAPS BLOW OUT YET AGAIN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     DCZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR DCZ001.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ007-011-013-014-016>018.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     MDZ007-011-014-017-018.
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050>057-501>504.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR VAZ503-504.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ052>055-057.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     VAZ028-031-042-052>055-057-501-502.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     VAZ054.
WV...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ501-503-505-506.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     WVZ050>053-503-504.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ELLIOTT
NEAR TERM...PELOQUIN
SHORT TERM...ELLIOTT/PELOQUIN
LONG TERM...ELLIOTT
AVIATION...PELOQUIN/ELLIOTT
MARINE...ELLIOTT
HYDROLOGY...ELLIOTT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ELLIOTT
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 28, 12:08 PM EDT, 4 hours 35 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1208 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
291000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
1208 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR MINOR FLOODING.

A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY. A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HURRICANE SANDY IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO A POSITION OFF THE
VIRGINIA CAPES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST AND
MOVING TOWARD THE DELAWARE BAY EARLY TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL THEN
TRACK WEST TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.

IMPACTS INCLUDE...

DAMAGING WINDS: A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. PEAK WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH ARE LIKELY. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DOWNED
TREES AND POWER LINES.

FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN: A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNT WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE STORM. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES WEST OF INTERSTATE
95...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RISES ON RIVERS FROM HEAVY
RAINS COULD CAUSE FLOODING TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

COASTAL FLOODING: A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY FOR MINOR FLOODING AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WATER LEVEL ANOMALIES ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC WILL
RANGE BETWEEN ONE TO THREE FEET.

MARINE AREAS...A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY. A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BY EARLY MONDAY...STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS...50 KNOTS OR
HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF HURRICANE
FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY LATE MONDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY TO BELOW GALE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...BUT IS MORE LIKELY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-291000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
1208 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HURRICANE SANDY IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO A POSITION OFF THE
VIRGINIA CAPES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST AND
MOVING TOWARD THE DELAWARE BAY EARLY TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL THEN
TRACK WEST TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.

IMPACTS INCLUDE...

FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN: A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MARYLAND...THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OF THE EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST VIRGINIA INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY FROM LATE TONIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON THE STORM TRACK. RAINFALL OF 2 TO
4 INCHES WILL BE COMMON IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE MASON DIXON LINE. ON RIVERS IN THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC BASIN...RISES FROM HEAVY RAINS COULD CONTINUE CAUSE
FLOODING WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

DAMAGING WINDS: A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. PEAK WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

HEAVY WET SNOW: A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OF EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND HIGHLAND COUNTY VIRGINIA. THIS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE THAN 5 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...BUT IS MORE LIKELY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 28, 2:03 PM EDT, 2 hours 40 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
203 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     COASTAL FLOOD    DAMERON                 38.15N  76.37W
10/28/2012                   ST. MARYS          MD   PUBLIC

            ST JEROMES NECK RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201376

TCH
Local storm report, Oct 28, 4:27 PM EDT, 16 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
427 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     COASTAL FLOOD    1 WSW BRETON BAY        38.23N  76.75W
10/28/2012                   ST. MARYS          MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PALMER ROAD IS FLOODED WITH APPROXIMATELY 8 INCHES DEEP
            OF WATER. OTHER SIDE ROADS OFF OF COLTON POINT ROAD IS
            BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WATER ACCUMULATING ONTO THEM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201377

KLW

The office that day

Everything else NWS Baltimore/Washington issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 28, 4:34 AM EDTHigh Wind WarningLWXAllegany, Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Carroll, Charles and 5 more48 hr
Oct 28, 5:01 PM EDTCoastal Flood WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Charles, Prince George's, Saint Mary's and 1 more4 days

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Maryland, 2012Every river flood warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.