Flash Flood Warning 74, NWS Baltimore/Washington

007 
WGUS71 KLWX 181827
FFSLWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
227 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

MDC021-VAC107-182000-
/O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0074.000000T0000Z-120918T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FREDERICK MD-LOUDOUN VA-
227 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR
NORTHERN LOUDOUN AND SOUTHWESTERN FREDERICK COUNTIES...

AT 222 PM EDT...THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLOODED ROADS IN THE 
CITY OF FREDERICK AND IN THE PURCELLVILLE AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT 
UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE 
WARNED AREA. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS NOW MOVED 
EASTWARD...ANOTHER HEAVY BAND IS FORMING NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...SO  
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PURCELLVILLE...ROUND HILL...BALLENGER CREEK...BRADDOCK HEIGHTS...
BRUNSWICK...FREDERICK...POINT OF ROCKS AND HARRY GROVE STADIUM.

SOME OF THE CLOSED ROADS INCLUDE PERKINS ROAD IN FREDERICK...A 
PARTIAL CLOSURE OF URBANA PIKE NORTHBOUND IN FREDERICK NEAR THE 
MALL...AND TRANQUILITY ROAD AND ALDER SCHOOL ROAD IN PURCELLVILLE.

FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
  BENNIES HILL ROAD NEAR DEER SPRINGS BRANCH...
  SIGLER ROAD NEAR CATOCTIN CREEK TRIBUTARY...
  BROCKTON COURT AT BROCKTON DRIVE...
  CRISSFORD ROAD NEAR LOCUST RUN...
  PLEASANT VIEW ROAD NEAR TUSCARORA CREEK...
  NEW DESIGN ROAD AT NOLANS FERRY ROAD...
  WOODGROVE ROAD AT SUNNY RIDGE ROAD...
  WOODGROVE ROAD AT CIDER MILL ROAD...
  CLARKS GAP ROAD AT HAMILTON STATION ROAD...
  BERLIN PIKE AT NIXON ROAD...
  HAMILTON STATION ROAD JUST NORTH OF ROUTE 9...
  BERLIN PIKE AT ALLDER SCHOOL ROAD...
  OLD WHEATLAND ROAD AT CLOVER HILL ROAD...

MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. FLOODWATER USUALLY IS
DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. MAKE THE SMART CHOICE WHEN
FLOODED ROADS ARE ENCOUNTERED...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3913 7782 3937 7764 3943 7757 3945 7737
      3922 7746 3909 7774

$$

JE

736 
WGUS71 KLWX 181955
FFSLWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

MDC021-VAC107-182005-
/O.EXP.KLWX.FF.W.0074.000000T0000Z-120918T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FREDERICK MD-LOUDOUN VA-
355 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 400 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN
LOUDOUN AND SOUTHWESTERN FREDERICK COUNTIES...

THE THREAT FOR RAPIDLY RISING FLOODWATERS HAS ENDED...BUT FLOODING 
CONTINUES OVER A LARGE AREA. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS 
BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

LAT...LON 3913 7782 3937 7764 3943 7757 3945 7737
      3922 7746 3909 7774

$$

JE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1104 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE MID TO LATE
PORTION OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING INCLEMENT WEATHER
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH 7 PM...
INCLUDING ALL DC/BALT METRO AREAS - WEST TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND
SHENANDOAH VLY.

INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA...DRIVING STRONG
LOW LEVEL FLOW - CREATING LINE SEGMENTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY W/
LOCALLY STRONG-TO-DAMAGING WINDS. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY
WEAK...WHICH IS KEEPING MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY AS HEAVY SHOWERS W/
NO LIGHTNING AS OF YET. SOME PERIODIC BREAKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
WILL CHANGE THAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA.

CURRENTLY...A FEW LINE SEGMENTS GATHERING THEMSELVES OVER THE NRN
SHENANDOAH VLY AND SLIDING NEWD. LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WINDS
EXPECTED IN THE MORE BOWED-OUT ACTIVITY. A GENERAL 25-35MPH BREEZE
OUT OF THE SOUTH HAS DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY AND
SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT. THESE ARE ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS
AND THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THRU LATER
TODAY.

FROM PREV DISC...
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH CONVERTED TO A CF WARNING FOR ANNE AR-SRN
BALT- HARFORD CO'S FOR THE LATE NIGHT H.T. CYCLE. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS - GALE FORCE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS - WILL DEVELOP WATER
LEVELS AROUND 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL LEADING TO MODERATE CF AT HIGH
TIDE. SEE WBCCFWLWX FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE
SHOWING A QLCS LINE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE CWFA. DO THINK THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE QLCS LINE. A COUPLE OF THINGS TO
NOTE...THERE IS NOT MUCH FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS AND THE 500MB
TROUGH REMAINS NEUTRAL. HOWEVER...WITH MUCH OF THE CWFA EAST OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY IN THE WARM SECTOR...SB CAPE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...HODOGRAPHS
SHOW A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE BAY DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING OF
SKIES.

GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES...AND HAVE UPPED THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE LAND
A FEW KT/MPH. POPS LOOKED GOOD...AND MADE NO CHANGES PAST 12Z. TOOK
BLEND FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST STRETCHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTH INTO THE GULF COAST STATES WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP MOST
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO
BE BELOW NORMAL...DESPITE SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
60 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS.

DRY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
CAUSE RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH
VALLEY...TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE SUBURBS OF
WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE...TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN
WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND A RETURN FLOW
WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO CLIMO. MORE
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. A RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY TO BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO THE
WEST.

YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MODELS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.

IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
DAYBREAK...AS GIGS/VSBYS REMAIN LOW IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. CIGS MAY
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MVFR VALUES WITH SUNRISE. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED
IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE TIME WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY BR/FOG MAY REDUCE VSBYS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
SATURDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS
THE WATERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FONT. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ARE
POSSIBLE. WATERSPOUTS ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY...BUT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS WEDNESDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ALSO FOR THE
CITIES OF WASHINGTON DC...ALEXANDRIA...AND THE COUNTIES OF PRINCE
GEORGES AND FAIRFAX ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

THE AFTERNOON/NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY
THESE ANOMALIES. MODERATE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE
AREAS. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE SHORE OF THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

ANOMALIES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS AN OFFSHORE FLOW
TAKES OVER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ013.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ007-011-014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ007-
     011-014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ017-018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ053-
     054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>532-535-
     536-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ533-534-537-
     541>543.

&&

UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...LISTEMAA/LASORSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1132 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
191345-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
1132 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

TORNADO WATCH...NUMBER 642...IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS...THROUGH 7 PM. SEE WBCWCNLWX FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
THIS EVENING...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANNE ARUNDEL...SOUTHERN
BALTIMORE AND HARFORD COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AT
HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY FOR THE WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN HAS BEEN ACTIVATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-191345-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
1132 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 642 IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MARYLAND...PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
PANHANDLE...AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA THROUGH 7 PM. SEE WBCWCNLWX FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT TODAY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
IN ADDITION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM NOON TO 6 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN HAS BEEN ACTIVATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1204 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

VAZ030-181630-
WARREN VA-
1204 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...SHOWER WITH GUSTY WIND TO AFFECT WARREN COUNTY...

AT 1203 PM EDT...A SHOWER PRODUCING GUSTY WIND WAS LOCATED OVER
BENTONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE FRONT ROYAL.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SHOWER. HEAVY

BRIEF BUT HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
BELOW ONE MILE AND MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3903 7815 3897 7803 3877 7828 3883 7837
TIME...MOT...LOC 1603Z 225DEG 39KT 3885 7828

SMZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1220 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E BRIGGS              39.10N  77.96W
09/18/2012                   CLARKE             VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN AT PARSHALL RD AND LOCKES MILL RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201232

GMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1227 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PURCELLVILLE            39.14N  77.71W
09/18/2012                   LOUDOUN            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN IN NEIGHBORING YARD. EST WIND GUST AT
            60 MPH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201233

GMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1233 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W WICKLIFFE           39.16N  77.92W
09/18/2012                   CLARKE             VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON 2500 BLOCK OF SHEPHERDS MILL RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201234

GMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1240 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

VAZ036-037-181745-
NELSON VA-ALBEMARLE VA-
1240 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT NELSON AND ALBEMARLE COUNTIES...

AT 1240 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES WEST OF PINEY RIVER TO 37 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ALLENS CREEK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE WINTERGREEN...SHIPMAN...AFTON...
SCHUYLER...SCOTT STADIUM AND CHARLOTTESVILLE.

HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE
MILE AND CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN BRING DOWN LARGE TREE BRANCHES. TAKE SHELTER UNTIL
THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3755 7891 3769 7899 3772 7907 3778 7909
      3780 7917 3789 7915 3792 7906 3789 7900
      3795 7890 3799 7891 3803 7887 3812 7822
      3777 7849 3774 7863 3768 7864 3767 7866
      3769 7869 3763 7872 3764 7880 3753 7883
TIME...MOT...LOC 1640Z 237DEG 48KT 3777 7911 3716 7925

BAJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1245 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

VAZ030-031-042-501-181700-
WARREN VA-CLARKE VA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER VA-LOUDOUN VA-
1245 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...GUSTY SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN TO AFFECT WARREN...CLARKE...NORTHERN
FAUQUIER AND LOUDOUN COUNTIES...

AT 1245 PM EDT...GUSTY SHOWERS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WAS LOCATED 3
MILES SOUTHEAST OF PARIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ST. LOUIS AND BLUEMONT.

HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE
MILE AND MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SHOWER.

&&

LAT...LON 3914 7784 3902 7764 3885 7791 3896 7805
TIME...MOT...LOC 1645Z 225DEG 37KT 3899 7790

SMZ