Excessive Heat Warning 3, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1057 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND..FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
QUEBEC NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
TODAY...CAUSING MORE HOT CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S NEAR
WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO A FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES OVER 100 ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. A
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE
METROPOLITAN AREAS AS WELL AS LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL
VIRGINIA FOR HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

AN MCS IS ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING. THE OUTLFOW FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
HIGH AMOUNTS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY...T-STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MORE CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. T-STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHG OF AIR MASS THRU AT LEAST SAT. WARM NGTS/HOT DAYS WL BE THE
PRIMARY WX WORDS. IT LOOKS LK FRI WL BE SIMILAR TO TDA REGARDING
TEMPS..AND SUSPECT ANOTHER ADVSRY WL BE IN OFFING. UPPER HIGH BLDG
INTO THE AREA SHOULD KEEP CNVCTN SURPRESSED. IT'S APPEARING THAT
THE HOTTEST DAY IN THIS STRING SHOULD BE SAT. NMRCL GDNC IS
XCEEDING 100 DEGS AT MULTIPLE SITES...AS MUCH AS 107 (NAM) AT DMH
ON SAT! ATTM WE HV HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 108-109 FOR DC/BALT FOR
SAT. FOR TIME BEING I'M GOING TO KEEP THIS MENTION IN THE
HWO...BUT SUSPECT BY 24 HRS FM NOW WE'LL BE NEEDING TO ISSUE AN
XCSV HEAT WATCH FOR AT LEAST THE I-95 CORRIDOR BTWN DC-BALT...AND
AT A LATER TIME AN XSCV HEAT WRNG. HIGH HEAT IMPACTS ARE
CUMULATIVE...AND MUNICIPALITIES WL NEED TO BE AT THE READY OVR THE
NEXT 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE PAST SVRL DAYS LONG RANGE MDLS HV BEEN PREDICTING A
PATTERN SHIFT BY THE END OF THE WKND AS THE UPR HIGH WL RETROGRADE
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES...WHICH IS NOT WHAT THOSE PEOPLE WANT TO
SEE...BUT IN DOING SO ALLOW SOME TROFFING TO DVLP IN ERN N.
AMERICA.

I CAN'T SAY W/ ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY THAT THERE WL BE CNVCTN AS THE
BNDRY DESCENDS INTO THE MID ATLC LATE SUNDAY...BUT GIVEN HOW MUCH
PTNL ENERGY THE ATMOSPHERE WL POSSESS THE "CHC TSTMS" WL RMN IN PLACE.

AGN GIVEN HOW MUCH HEAT HAS BEEN STORED BY THE EARTH AFTR THE FNT
MOVES S OF THE CWA THE TEMPS WL STILL BE QUITE WARM. WHAT WL FEEL
"COOL" DURG THE 1ST PART OF NEXT WEEK - U80S HIGHS/MU60S LOWS...IS
ACTUALLY WHAT THE 30 YRS NRML TEMPS ARE SUPPOSED TO BE AT THIS
TIME OF YR - THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WARMEST TIME OF THE YR.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDS XPCTD TO BE VFR TDA. ISOLATED/SCATTERED T-STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. T-STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU SAT...THEN
TSTMS PSBL SUN AFTN AND EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY.

THE MAIN THING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS GOING TO BE THE
HIGH HEAT - NOT COMFORTABLE WX FOR BEING OUT ON THE WATER. EVEN
WATER TEMPS NOW INTO THE L80S. ISOLATED/SCATTERED T-STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. T-STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

THERE'LL BE A CHC FOR TSTMS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE MID ATLC.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW.

DCA: 102 DEGREES IN 1999
IAD: 99 DEGREES IN 1999
BWI: 102 DEGREES IN 1999

NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. RECORD HIGH
TEMPS FOR SATURDAY...JULY 7TH ARE LISTED BELOW. ALL OCCURRED IN
2010.

DCA: 102 BWI AND IAD: 101

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ006-007-
     009>011-013-014-016>018.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ036>040-042-
     050>057-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

LASORSA/WOODY!

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1018 AM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BEL ALTON               38.46N  76.98W
07/05/2012                   CHARLES            MD   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ALONG CHAPEL PT RD...CRANE
            HWY...BEL ALTON

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1200815

HAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1029 AM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 AM     HAIL             4 N NANJEMOY            38.51N  77.23W
07/05/2012  E1.00 INCH       CHARLES            MD   PUBLIC

0311 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N NANJEMOY            38.51N  77.23W
07/05/2012                   CHARLES            MD   PUBLIC

            SMALL BRANCHES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1200816
EVENT NUMBER LWX1200817

KRAMAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1042 AM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1004 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W MIDDLEBURG          38.97N  77.78W
07/04/2012                   LOUDOUN            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE LIMB DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1200818

KRAMAR

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