Special Weather Statement, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
103 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT AS A LINE OF STORMS AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT RACE OFF TO
THE EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT DUE TO STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...WITH
SPEEDS OF AROUND 20-30 MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S ON THE CAPROCK AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL HAVE A
LONGER TIME TO RESIDE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK
WILL SEE MOISTURE LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHT...THUS
ONLY ALLOWING FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SPEEDS TO BE LESS THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY...BUT STILL BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 25-30 MPH. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ADVISORY ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME TO ALLOW ONCOMING SHIFTS TO
ASSESS THE POTENTIAL BETTER AND NOT PRODUCE CONFUSION WITH THIS
AFTERNOON'S HIGH WIND WARNING. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN A DRIER AIR MASS
AND DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES AND LOWER TO MID 60S
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE ELSE DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ALOFT IN THE
FRONT'S WAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
QUASI QUIET WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WIND.
WINDS SPEEDS WILL DECREASE ON EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL YET
AGAIN PICK UP FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
THE AREA YET AGAIN...BUT WINDS WILL ONLY INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS...A
CALM DAY COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10
KTS OUT OF THE WEST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
CONSEQUENTLY...BUT NOT A SURPRISE TO US WEST TEXANS...THE WEATHER
WILL BE FAIRLY DRY. THIS STORY WILL HOLD TILL LATE WED/EARLY THURS
AS A CANADIAN FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING MORE WINDY
CONDITIONS...BUT NO RAIN. WINDS ATM DO NOT SEEM TO BE STRONGER THAN
THEY ARE TODAY...SUSTAINING UP TO 25 KTS...BUT THINGS COULD CHANGE
OVER TIME AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BRINGING THE
FRONT THROUGH WED EVENING...WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING BEHIND ABOUT 12
HOURS BEHIND WITH A FROPA EARLY THURS MORNING. HAVE WENT A BIT DOWN
THE MIDDLE OF THE 2 MODELS WITH THE FROPA WITH IT BEING NEARLY A
WEEK OUT...BUT HAVE LEANED A BIT MORE ON THE FASTER SIDE. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        29  57  26  54  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         32  59  28  55  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     32  59  28  55  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     31  60  30  58  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       33  62  31  57  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  62  32  60  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    32  62  31  59  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     39  66  34  61  32 /  20   0   0   0   0
SPUR          37  65  34  63  32 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     41  68  38  66  34 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039>041.

&&

31/51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1120 AM CST FRI DEC 14 2012

TXZ021>044-151730-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1120 AM CST FRI DEC 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PUSHING
A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONG LIFT
AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE FROM DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO
AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

NON PRECIPITATION

AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION AND IMMEDIATELY AFTER ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST...STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS WILL DEVELOP. A
WEST WIND WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND GUSTS
APPROACHING 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FROM 2 PM THROUGH 6 PM FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...OR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 27 AND HIGHWAY 87 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL
CREATE A STRONG CROSS WIND ON ANY HIGHWAYS RUNNING NORTH AND SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. PATCHY BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE
RESULTING IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

BREEZY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
SPEEDS WILL BE 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO STANDBY AND BE READY TO ACTIVATE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
424 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE FRIONA             34.66N 102.70W
12/14/2012  M61 MPH          PARMER             TX   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200418

JGD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
431 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND GST     SILVERTON               34.47N 101.30W
12/14/2012  M73 MPH          BRISCOE            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SILVERTON HS SCHOOLNET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200419

JGD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
438 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SE RALLS              33.67N 101.37W
12/14/2012  M65 MPH          CROSBY             TX   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200420

JGD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
439 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2012

TXZ025-026-031-032-037-038-042>044-142300-
CHILDRESS-COTTLE-DICKENS-GARZA-HALL-KENT-KING-MOTLEY-STONEWALL-
439 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GARZA...STONEWALL...KENT...
DICKENS...KING...COTTLE...MOTLEY...HALL  AND CHILDRESS  COUNTIES...

AT 433 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 24 MILES WEST OF
MEMPHIS TO 44 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JAYTON...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS 40 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ON THE CAPROCK THAT
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE MILE AT TIMES. STAY AWAY FROM
HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES OR LARGE HOLIDAY DECORATIONS.
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3339 10116 3339 10105 3365 10105 3388 10094
      3475 10071 3474 10003 3385 10005 3384 10001
      3296 10000 3296 10135
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 271DEG 52KT 3468 10092 3300 10123

16