Special Weather Statement, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1237 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

.AVIATION...
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH WINDS
INCREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE WEST BEHIND THIS FEATURE. STORMS
WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF KCDS. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012/

UPDATE...
POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING AND A
LITTLE BIT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PACIFIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA WITH MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ARE STILL BACKED IN THE FAR EASTERN
ROLLING PLAINS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO VEER BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE MAY
HOLD IN FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE 12Z NAM AND LATEST VARIOUS
REGIONAL MODELS CAME IN PESSIMISTIC ABOUT CHANCES FOR THUNDER FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012/

AVIATION...
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...HAS
PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING...SOME OF WHICH NEARED KLBB. -SHRA WERE NOTED WEST OF
KCDS. HAVE INSERTED A VCTS AND VCSH AT KLBB AND KCDS RESPECTIVELY
GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE EVENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM/S
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COMMENCE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING THUS VEERING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
THE WEST AND BECOME A BIT BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. COMPUTER MODELS
HINT AT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND
EAST OF THE FRONT...AFFECTING KCDS MORE SO THAN KLBB. HAVE THEREFORE
INSERTED A TEMPO AT KCDS AND A VCTS AT KLBB. AOA SUNSET WINDS WILL
DECLINE AND VEER FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OF KCDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT AIDED TO PROVIDE PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH SEVERE WEATHER LAST NIGHT...WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A 50+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK
CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND THUS...LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS QUITE EVIDENT GIVEN
ONGOING AND NEWLY DEVELOPED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...PORTIONS OF THE WRN AND NERN SOUTH PLAINS...IN ADDITION
TO THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE WEST TEXAS MESONET REPORTED WIND GUSTS
NEAR 30 MPH WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 0.10
INCHES/HR. A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS IS NOT OF THE QUESTION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING HOWEVER...INCREASED STABILITY AND THUS INCREASED
CIN WILL MITIGATE STORMS FROM BECOMING OVERLY STRONG. ALBEIT...A
40-50 KT SRLY LLJ COULD MAINTAIN LINGERING PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...IT APPEARED
VALID TO ALLOW THE TORNADO WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 2 AM. LOWERED
TEMP-DEWPT DEPRESSIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN ENCOURAGE LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS IS THE CASE VIA THE LATEST KLBB METAR
/BKN MVFR CLOUD DECKS/.

THE UA LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP A BIT AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN WILL EJECT NE
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
AS SUCH...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UA LOW/S PACIFIC FRONT THAT IS
LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO PER 08Z METARS. IT WILL SHIFT EAST
/ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/ ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL BE OF A DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT AND AS A RESULT...LOW LEVELS WILL DRY OUT /PWATS DROP
BELOW 0.50 INCHES WITH  DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S/ AND SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OUT ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES...1.0-1.5 KJ/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE AND ENSUING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S/ WILL EXIST. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT SERVING AS A LIFTING
MECHANISM DOES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SAID AREA...AFTER THE
CIN IS ONCE AGAIN OVERCOME THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER. STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES AND PWATS OF 1.20-1.50 INCHES MAY SUPPORT BRIEF STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED MODERATE RAINFALL. FURTHERMORE...A BIT OF A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE BREEZY WSWRLY WINDS BY THE
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS /31 MPH
OR GREATER/. A NOTABLE DECLINATION WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL ALSO SHIFT PRECIP AND BEST INSTABILITY EAST OF THE FA. SFC
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A SFC RIDGE NW OF THE
REGION.

HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT TRICKY TODAY...AS IT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR. WILL LEAN TOWARDS
EXHIBITING LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SWRN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS SRN AND ERN LOCALES. TONIGHT...A NEARBY SFC RIDGE WILL
SUPPORT LIGHT NW WINDS...AND THUS A BIT COOLER TEMPS WITH LOWER 40S
NW TO LOWER 50S EAST ANTICIPATED.

LONG TERM...
A BENIGN PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NW FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MUCH OF IT. ENOUGH ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NRN JET
STREAM TO DRIVE A COUPLE OF FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA...BUT ALL IN
ALL TEMPS WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM SEASONAL NORMS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ABOUT TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WHILE A WEAK
TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS MODEL RUN IS NOT AS
BULLISH AS WHAT THE GFS WAS DEPICTING 24 HOURS AGO KEEPING PRECIP
WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. TEND TO THINK THIS WILL BE ACCURATE
AND WILL THUS KEEP POPS AT 10 PCT OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        44  76  45  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         46  77  45  81  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  78  46  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  77  47  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  80  48  81  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  78  47  78  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  78  48  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     52  85  51  85  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  82  50  82  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     54  84  52  83  55 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

01

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
304 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

TXZ044-132030-
STONEWALL-
304 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STONEWALL COUNTY...

AT 302 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN STONEWALL COUNTY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3296 10029 3332 9999 3331 9999 3322 9999
      3322 9998 3296 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 232DEG 35KT 3299 10004

JDV