Special Weather Statement, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
403 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

.UPDATE...
ADDED A SEVERE MENTION TO ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
VALID THROUGH 11 PM WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST
RADAR TRENDS DISPLAYED A STRENGTHENING STORM ACROSS HOCKLEY
COUNTY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER EAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THINGS LOOK TO GET FAIRLY ACTIVE THIS PM. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM TC MIRIAM IN THE EPAC MIGRATING EASTWARD AND BEGINNING
TO ENTER THE FA. IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND A SURFACE TROF EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE TO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTHERN PLAINS...SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER. BACKED
SURFACE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OFF THE CAP ROCK ARE
BRINGING IN LL MOISTURE...WITH DP IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OFF THE
CAPROCK. 12Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING MLCAPE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS CLEAR SKIES HELP WARM SURFACE TEMPS AND WITH INCREASING
ML LAPSE RATES. CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM JUST OVER 500 J/KG IN
THE WESTERN ZONES TO OVER 2000 J/KG IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE 12Z
RUNS APPEAR TO SHOW A MORE MOIST SOUNDING THAN THE 06Z RUN...WHICH
LOOKS TO BE A PARTIAL RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING MOISTURE FROM MIRIAM.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE
EASTWARD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SVR STORMS BEING ALONG AND EAST
OF THE I27/US87 CORRIDOR AS WIND SHEAR...80-90 KT ULJ...AND LL
MOISTURE APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPPORTING STRONG CONVECTION.
CONVECTIVE INITIALIZATION FOR THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED AROUND
21/22Z. MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE UP TO ONE INCH HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER 60 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE AND FROM AN MCS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE EXITING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA. MORE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO THE WEST AS MORE MOISTURE IS FUNNELED IN FROM MIRIAM AND
AS A SHORTWAVE MIGRATES EASTWARD AROUND THE UL LOW OVER CO. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY BEGINNING IN THE WESTERN ZONES AND
RISE EASTWARD THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. ALDRICH

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE CLOSED UA LOW ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS
PROGGED TO OPEN UP TOMORROW NIGHT...AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE SAID STATE. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT SFC WINDS
BACKING TO A MORE SERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT FRIDAY...IN ADDITION TO
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM /WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE
BAJA OF CALIFORNIA/ EJECTING NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THANKS TO
SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. AS SUCH...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE EVIDENT
AS DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S-60S AND THUS PWATS INCREASING TO AOA 1.50
INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE ASCENT COURTESY OF
THE UA DISTURBANCE...AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...AND WILL THEREFORE NEED TO LOOK OUT FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING ESPECIALLY ALONG LOW-LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
SATURDAY...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM MIRIAM WILL COMMENCE TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE CWA AS DRIER AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN. HENCE...BEST CHANCE
POPS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST.

FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW ON SUNDAY...AS LONG TERM SOLUTIONS
CONTINUED TO SHOW UA RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO
ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE DISTURBANCE/S ASSOCIATED FROPA WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH SUNDAY-MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT QPF
SIGNALS /PWATS AOA 1.00 INCH/ AND SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY-THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHERE
THEREAFTER...A NOTABLE DRYING IS EXHIBITED DUE TO THE UA RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORM THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST /70S/. CLEARING SKIES AND THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UA RIDGE NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER
CONDITIONS AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  77  57  70  54 /  30  40  50  40  20
TULIA         59  79  59  71  55 /  50  40  50  50  30
PLAINVIEW     61  80  60  71  55 /  40  40  50  50  30
LEVELLAND     61  79  60  73  56 /  40  30  50  50  30
LUBBOCK       64  80  63  73  57 /  40  30  50  50  30
DENVER CITY   63  80  61  74  57 /  30  30  50  50  30
BROWNFIELD    64  80  62  72  57 /  40  30  50  50  30
CHILDRESS     65  85  63  78  60 /  50  30  40  60  30
SPUR          66  84  64  74  58 /  40  30  40  60  30
ASPERMONT     68  87  65  77  61 /  30  20  40  60  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

51/29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1132 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

TXZ021>044-271645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1132 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO
ONE INCH AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH. THE SEVERE THREAT AREA WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 27/HIGHWAY 87. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT WEST OF
INTERSTATE 27/HIGHWAY 87.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
PACIFIC. AS A RESULT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN
BE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
532 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 ESE SILVERTON         34.43N 101.19W
09/26/2012  M59 MPH          BRISCOE            TX   MESONET

            WEST TEXAS MESONET REPORT

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200378

CWA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
538 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 ENE ABERNATHY         33.86N 101.76W
09/26/2012  M68 MPH          HALE               TX   MESONET

            WEST TEXAS MESONET REPORT

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200379

CWA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
540 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND GST     REESE CENTER            33.59N 102.03W
09/26/2012  M58 MPH          LUBBOCK            TX   MESONET

            WEST TEXAS MESONET REPORT

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200380

CWA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
606 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     TSTM WND GST     SOUTHLAND               33.36N 101.55W
09/26/2012  E65 MPH          GARZA              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER COOP REPORT

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200381

CWA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
614 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 N IDALOU              33.72N 101.68W
09/26/2012  M73 MPH          LUBBOCK            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TV WEATHER STATION REPORT

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200382

CWA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

TXZ024-025-030-031-262345-
BRISCOE-FLOYD-HALL-MOTLEY-
621 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FLOYD...MOTLEY...HALL  AND
BRISCOE  COUNTIES...

AT 618 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF
MATADOR TO 7 MILES NORTH OF MATADOR TO 24 MILES WEST OF MATADOR...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3432 10047 3431 10052 3414 10052 3394 10076
      3395 10131 3421 10127 3456 10075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 322DEG 18KT 3436 10071 3410 10084
          3400 10122