Special Weather Statement, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE THE PREDOMINATE MODE IN PLACE AT THE
TERMINALS THIS CYCLE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. GREATEST
CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND DETERMINING THE STORM CHANCES AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANY STORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEFLY
INTERRUPTING THE VFR CONDITIONS AND BRING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
EARLY THIS EVENING THE CLOSEST MOIST CONVECTION WAS IN SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WAS MOVING VERY LITTLE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS WE COULD SEE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR EITHER
TERMINAL LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH CURRENT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. BETTER CHANCE FOR
STORMS APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE
A PROB30 GROUP AT BOTH KCDS AND KLBB WITH THIS IN MIND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012/

SHORT TERM...
IT IS NICE TO SEE MID-AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH LATEST WEST TEXAS MESONET OBS DO SHOW SOME LOCATIONS
PUSHING NORTH OF 90 AS OF 3 PM. A COLD FRONT IS STILL MAKING VERY
SLOW SWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY
LOCATED FROM BAILEY COUNTY TO HALL COUNTY...ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS
HAVE TRENDED MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. A FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN
PERIODICALLY DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT MAINLY
ACROSS BRISCOE...HALL...FLOYD AND MOTLEY COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THEY
HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO TAKE ROOT AS SOME CAP IS STILL IN PLACE AND
THERE IS LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF A
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING INTO WRN OKLA AND NORTH TX. THE
MID-LVL MOISTURE PLUME DOES REMAIN STRETCHED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WEAK LIFT MAY YET RETURN AS SOME UPPER-LVL DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SMALL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE SRN
ROCKIES. THUS...WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTM GOING THIS
EVENING...WITH A BETTER CHANCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
ALSO...TSTM ACTIVITY JUST NOW GETTING ORGANIZED ALONG THE RATON
RIDGE WILL HAVE A CHANCE AT MAKING IT INTO OUR NW ZONES LATER THIS
EVENING AND RIGHT ON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN FACT THE NAM
SUGGESTS THAT A STRONGER MID-LVL SPEED MAX CURRENTLY ACROSS WRN ARIZ
WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN NM OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE WRN PANHANDLE FRIDAY
MORNING AND THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IN OUR NW ZONES
WELL INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT WILL TEND TO WASH OUT ON FRIDAY...BUT E-SE WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...LARGE SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE TRICKY GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLE MORNING CLOUD COVER...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE MORE ACTIVITY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT MODEST...BUT DEEP-SHEAR WILL
IMPROVE AND A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...
MAIN ADJUSTMENTS THIS FORECAST CYCLE CONSISTED OF TRIMMING POPS
AREA WIDE FRI EVENING AND BOOSTING CHANCES SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
COMMON THEME SHARED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OVER RECENT DAYS HAS
BEEN TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
THAT EVENTUALLY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF A DEVELOPING LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS MINOR TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A BELT OF STRONGER UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS THAT WILL PASS
NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS RESULTING IN AN ENHANCED REGION OF
DIVERGENCE AND IMPROVED ASCENT. THIS DELAYED ARRIVAL NOW SUGGESTS
THE BEST WINDOW FOR PRECIP WILL TAKE AIM AT SOME POINT DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES EXTENDING INTO SAT NIGHT BEFORE
THE UPPER FLOW VEERS MORE NORTHERLY RESULTING IN REDUCED POPS BY
SUNDAY.

THE PATTERN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND STILL FAVORS SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS...ALBEIT MORE FROM REPEATED RAINS OVER THE COURSE
OF HOURS RATHER THAN FROM ANY ONE INDIVIDUAL STORM. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME ALREADY CURLING EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE SPREADING INTO WEST TX AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
IMPROVING DYNAMIC LIFT MENTIONED EARLIER AND A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THE STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER A LARGE AREA.

MONDAY SHOULD SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM PRECIP CHANCES AS A FLAT
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NUDGES EASTWARD. THIS
SCENARIO COULD PROVE SHORT LIVED AS THE ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN KEEN
ON AMPLIFYING NWLY WINDS ALOFT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO
COMPLETE WITH A S/W TROF IN A MODERATE-TO-STRONGLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS SETUP APPEARS MORE TYPICAL OF A CLASSIC
NORTHWEST FLOW CONVECTIVE EVENT...BUT SINCE THIS THREAT IS STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT WE HAVE RETAINED JUST LOW POPS PRIMARILY MON
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WOULD APPEAR TO REMAIN
INTACT THROUGH MID-WEEK AS RIDGING TO OUR WEST REMAINS RELATIVELY
SUPPRESSED. TEMPS THEREFORE DO NOT APPEAR TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM
CLIMO AFTER SOME BLO NORMAL HIGHS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  84  66  84  61 /  30  50  40  50  50
TULIA         65  84  66  83  62 /  20  50  60  60  50
PLAINVIEW     66  84  67  83  63 /  20  50  50  60  50
LEVELLAND     66  87  68  86  65 /  20  40  30  50  50
LUBBOCK       67  88  69  86  67 /  20  40  30  60  50
DENVER CITY   67  88  69  87  65 /  20  40  30  40  40
BROWNFIELD    67  88  69  87  65 /  20  40  30  50  40
CHILDRESS     70  91  70  85  67 /  40  50  60  60  40
SPUR          69  91  72  87  67 /  20  40  40  60  40
ASPERMONT     73  95  72  88  69 /  30  30  40  60  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

23/07/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
528 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

TXZ021>044-171030-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
528 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS LATER TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING
TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO PONDING MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
752 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

TXZ027-170115-
BAILEY-
752 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BAILEY COUNTY...

AT 750 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WEST CENTRAL BAILEY COUNTY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 3405 10304 3420 10304 3428 10296 3413 10277
      3396 10300 3399 10305 3404 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 223DEG 7KT 3408 10301

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>