Special Weather Statement, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
637 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK COLD FRONT FROM KCVS
TO 60NM KCDS IS EXPECTED TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT A
THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING EITHER TERMINAL THIS EVENING
EXISTS...CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES EXPLICIT MENTION IN TAF ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD TODAY ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEGUN
TO REGAIN STRENGTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL ENTERS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAD ENTERED THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
LAGGED A BIG BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT. THE FRONT HAS ALSO SLOWED
CONSIDERABLY AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY DRY
AND HOT CONDITIONS STILL RULED THE REGION WITH MONSOONAL FLOW
ELUDING THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS FLOW MAY MOVE A BIT
CLOSER THIS EVENING AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS BUT DEEP
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. MAIN
HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL BE ACROSS KANSAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WILL EXIST OVER A DEEP LAYER SLOPING BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AT MID LEVELS. THIS FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THERE IS MOISTURE POOLING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THIS AIR IS CAPPED OFF. UNCAPPED PARCELS WITH
POSITIVE INSTABILITY WOULD HAVE TO BE LIFTED FROM A FAIRLY HIGH
LEVEL AND THE INSTABILITY BECOMES LESS THAN 500 J/KG AT THIS
POINT. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCES OF
STORMS WILL BE IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE BUT CHANCES WILL STILL EXIST ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STEERING FLOW WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR
STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH GENERAL STORM MOVEMENT TO THE
NORTHEAST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON SUNDAY AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN
EASTERLY. THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IS USUALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EXPANSIVE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY HAMPER CONVECTION CHANCES. A NOTABLE EFFECT OF THE
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE REDUCED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
SOMETHING A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE. JDV

LONG TERM...
FRONT WILL START TO MIX NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE
REMAINING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS DO CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME REMNANT
MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE HOWEVER MODEL
POINT AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK MID-
LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
THE CENTURY MARK FOR THE AREA HOWEVER A SUBTLE CHANGE WILL START
TO TAKE PLACE BY MID-WEEK.

THE RIDGE CENTER WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTH
THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO SLOWLY FALL AS WELL.
THIS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO SHAVE OFF A FEW DEGREES AND KEEP THE
SOUTH PLAINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND THE ROLLING PLAINS FROM
101 TO 104 DEGREES. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME MONSOON
MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE AND THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED HIGH-
BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS POSSIBILITY REMAINS
RATHER SLIM AND KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR NOW. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HINT AT ANOTHER WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS SOLUTION.

OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG
THE RIDGE WILL BE AND SO KEPT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS
WELL AS NO MENTION OF POPS.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  90  65  95  66 /  30  10  10  10  10
TULIA         68  92  69  98  69 /  30  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     69  93  70  99  71 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     68  94  69  99  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       73  95  70 101  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   68  93  72  98  70 /  10  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    68  95  70  99  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     74  97  70 103  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  97  73 102  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     75 100  73 106  77 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
519 AM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012

TXZ021>044-051030-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
519 AM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
659 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012

TXZ024-050030-
BRISCOE-
659 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BRISCOE  COUNTY...

AT 653 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTH CENTRAL BRISCOE COUNTY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3472 10095 3455 10126 3465 10144 3476 10141
      3475 10094
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 214DEG 16KT 3468 10129