Special Weather Statement, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
649 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

.UPDATE...
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN NE NM AND THE FAR WRN PANHANDLE HAS NOT BEEN
QUITE AS ROBUST AS EXPECTED...THUS FAR. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS
SHOW AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY...AND SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE STILL
INDICATES A LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ORGANIZING AND MOVING INTO
AT LEAST OUR WRN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE
TRIMMED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS BUT
KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST INTACT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KCDS OVERNIGHT WITH
ONLY A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY AFTER
06Z. AT KLBB...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LESS THAN PREVIOUS THAT
TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL...AND WE HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF
VCTS UNTIL 06Z...LASTING THROUGH 09Z. THEN...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED WED MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SCT CUMULUS FIELD
BY MIDDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012/

SHORT TERM...
AIRMASS WAS RECOVERING AT MID-AFTERNOON AFTER EARLIER SHOWERS SENT A
COOL OUTFLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA. WARM SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES
WERE INCREASING FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPES
INCREASING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WHERE
SHEAR VALUES ALSO WERE HIGHEST. A NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS WERE
ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH NEW MEXICO HIGHLANDS AND APPEARED CAPABLE
OF GENERATING AN ORGANIZED COOL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW PUSHING ACTIVITY
FURTHER INTO THE INSTABILITY.

THE BULK OF SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY EVENING...SWEEPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF OUR AREA. WE HAVE RAISED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES MOST AREAS INTO HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE NIGHT
AS WELL AS ADDING A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WE AGREE WITH THE
SPC ASSESSMENT OF PRIMARY THREATS FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS MOSTLY OR COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
AREA EARLY TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVERHEAD. CAPPING
ALOFT DOES NOT APPEAR CERTAIN ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO COMPLETELY
ELIMINATE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE DRY-LINE ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDED LOW MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...WARM-UP
SHOULD COMMENCE WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO OR INTO THE LOWER
90S WITH MODEST SURFACE SOUTHERLY BREEZES. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THIS ITERATION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE HOT AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITION MID-WEEK FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY...WITH MODERATE WSW FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AND THE DRYLINE WILL MIX TO ROUGHLY THE EASTERN EXPANSES OF THE FA
BY LATE IN THE DAY AS GUSTY SW WINDS /SUSTAINED AT 20-25 MPH/
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE DRY DOWNSLOPE WINDS COUPLED WITH
INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SOAR...WITH
MUCH OF THE FA THREATENING OR ECLIPSING THE CENTURY MARK. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL UNFOLD ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE MOST RECENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY DIP A FEW DEGREES AND WINDS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM WEDNESDAY AS THICKNESSES DECLINE AND
LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME PATCHY
BLOWING DUST DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK...THOUGH HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF
THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST THURSDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH RELOADS. SPECIFICALLY...A
CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO DIG THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BACK ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BY LATE
WEEK...THOUGH THE INITIAL MOISTURE RETURN AND PROSPECTS FOR
CONVECTION MAY BE A BIT LIMITED YET ON FRIDAY. BY
SATURDAY...SIGNALS INCREASE THAT THE DRYLINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
AFTN/EVNG CONVECTION...LIKELY FAVORING THE WESTERN ZONES.
THUS...HAVE ADDED A THUNDER MENTION ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA...THOUGH IF THE 12Z GFS IS CORRECT...THE HIGHER STORM
CHANCES MAY STAY INTO EASTERN NM. UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO
INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF MOVES THE DRYLINE INTO
THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN ZONES AND THE GFS KEEPS IT BACKED WELL INTO
NM. IT DOES APPEAR THE DRYLINE COULD AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE DAY
CONVECTION...SOME WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE LOCATION FOR THE FOCUSING MECHANISM...HAVE KEPT POPS AT 13
PERCENT /INSTEAD OF BROAD-BRUSHING A THUNDER MENTION EVERYWHERE/.
WEAKENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE
FLATTENING BEYOND THAT. THUS...STORM CHANCES WILL NOT BE ZERO INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT WILL LIKELY BE WANING.
REGARDLESS...IMPROVED MOISTURE...THE LOSS OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND
DECREASING THICKNESSES ALL ARGUE FOR RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AFTER THE HOT MID-WEEK STRETCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  90  58  97  56 /  60  10  20   0  10
TULIA         58  90  62  98  58 /  60  10  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     59  91  64 100  61 /  60  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     60  91  63 100  63 /  60  10  20   0  10
LUBBOCK       61  91  65 102  65 /  60  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   59  92  63 100  64 /  60  10  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    61  91  65 102  65 /  60  10  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     60  93  65 104  66 /  50  10  10  10  10
SPUR          60  92  68 105  66 /  50  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     62  91  66 102  70 /  40  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
830 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

TXZ021>044-230130-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
830 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT GENERALLY WEST
OF THE I-27/US 87 CORRIDOR. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING WILL
ORGANIZE INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND MOVE SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL
EXIST FOR THE COMPLEX TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND ALSO A THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL UP TO AROUND GOLF BALL SIZE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY BUT A FEW
STORMS COULD REMAIN SEVERE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK HOWEVER THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE COMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE.

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