Special Weather Statement, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
648 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

.UPDATE...
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...HAVE ADDED GUSTY WINDS MENTION ALONG WITH
STORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. ASPERMONT TTU MESONET REPORTED A GUST
TO 60 MPH AT 6PM UNDER 10-15 DBZ REFLECTIVITY. MCV FORMED NW OF
LUBBOCK AND MOVED ACROSS THE CITY GENERATING A WEAK HABOOB.
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WHILE IT REMAINS QUITE DRY NEAR THE SURFACE...DOWNBURST
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH VIRGA SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS /WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD UP AT KCDS/ THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
THESE SHOWER HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS BETWEEN
40 AND 60 MPH. COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS AND
WHILE THIS MAY SERVE TO REDUCE THE WIND THREAT SOMEWHAT...IT IS
RECOMMENDED TO REMAIN WELL CLEAR OF ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT IN
WEST TEXAS AND BE VIGILANT FOR DOWNBURST INDICATIONS ON THE
GROUND...E.G. DUST PLUMES DURING DAYLIGHT AS WELL AS POWER FLASHES
AT NIGHT. HOWEVER...BE AWARE THAT CROP IRRIGATION DEVICES OFTEN
DISPLAY AN ASSOCIATED STROBE LIGHT DURING OPERATION WHICH MAY BE
PERCEIVED AS A POWER FLASH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH CLOUD COVER
THAT HAS STREAMED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND SOME LIGHT
ELEVATED SHOWERS THAT ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND NEARLY
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES OF THE LUB CWA AS OF 20Z. THIS FRONT
SHOULD DROP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...BEFORE STALLING OUT THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE DRYLINE THAT HAS PUSHED
WELL INTO THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS/SE PANHANDLE. EAST OF THE
DRYLINE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW. HOWEVER...MODELS
/PARTICULARLY THE NAM/ ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY...WITH PROGGED ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 500-750 J/KG BY
00Z ACROSS THE SE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT
INTERSECTION.

WITH LIFT INCREASING WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH...THINK THAT
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING ALONG THE
DRYLINE/FRONT. AS LIFT INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND AN INFLUX OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OCCURS IN WAKE OF THE FROPA...ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. GIVEN THE INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES AND THE
HIGH CLOUD BASES...THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ERRATIC GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 25-40
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z WHEN LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE APPEAR TO BE GREATEST...WITH THE MOST FAVORED AREAS BEING
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS.

FOR FRIDAY...MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE THE GUSTY NNE WINDS THE WILL ACCOMPANY/FOLLOW
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. GIVEN THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION...A RETURN
OF SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S AREAWIDE.

LONG TERM...
ONCE THE REGION GETS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE
TOMORROW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE ON SATURDAY.
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH A RETURN TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. LEE
TROUGHING FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WILL PUMP UP THE
WINDS A BIT AND BOOST TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITHIN THE RIDGE TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME STORMS OFF THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THESE STORMS REACHING THE FA EVEN IF THEY DO DEVELOP.

MODELS STILL STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE
RIDGE. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL HANG AROUND LONGER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD
DEPICTED. THE RIDGE COULD THEN DO SEVERAL THINGS...MOVE
EAST...STAY OVER THE AREA OR FLATTEN OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
THERE IS TOO MUCH SPREAD IN THE NAEFS TO MAKE ANY SORT OF
BETTER DETERMINATION AT THE MOMENT. JDV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  69  42  78  48 /  30  20   0   0   0
TULIA         49  71  41  77  49 /  40  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     50  72  42  76  50 /  30  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  74  44  79  51 /  20  20   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       53  74  45  77  52 /  20  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   53  74  45  79  51 /  20  20   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    53  74  45  79  52 /  20  20   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     55  71  45  76  52 /  40  20   0   0   0
SPUR          54  74  48  78  50 /  30  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     57  75  46  78  53 /  30  20   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1138 AM CDT THU APR 19 2012

TXZ021>044-201645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1138 AM CDT THU APR 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
TULIA TO CROSBYTON TO POST. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND HIGH
CLOUD BASES WILL TEND TO FAVOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60
MPH WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS RISK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
808 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

TXZ024-030-031-200130-
BRISCOE-FLOYD-MOTLEY-
808 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING
ACROSS FLOYD...SOUTHERN BRISCOE...AND INTO WESTERN MOTLEY COUNTIES...

AT 803 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF FLOYDADA...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 3449 10094 3432 10095 3432 10094 3411 10093
      3387 10101 3398 10147 3438 10140
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 280DEG 32KT 3405 10134

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
840 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0826 PM     HAIL             4 N DOUGHERTY           34.00N 101.09W
04/19/2012  E3.00 INCH       FLOYD              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO REPORTED FUNNEL ALOFT WITH HIGH BASED CONVECTION
            AS STORM CROSSED THE ESCARPMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200161

JWJ

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