Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Lubbock, TX

070 
WWUS54 KLUB 032315
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
615 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

TXC191-032330-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-120403T2330Z/
HALL TX-
615 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
HALL COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 612 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
SOUTH OF MEMPHIS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ESTELLINE AND HIGHWAY 287 IN NORTHEAST HALL COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. TAKE COVER IN A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN LUBBOCK AT 8067451290.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 10042 3469 10042 3468 10041 3452 10042
      3457 10066 3475 10060 3475 10042
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 278DEG 11KT 3463 10054

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
330 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

.SHORT TERM...
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  AT THE
SURFACE...DRY AIR HAS REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHILE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND DEEPER MOISTURE HAS ALSO REMAINED IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE DRYLINE HAS
STALLED OUT. SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM HAS CONTINUED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND THIS PRECIPITATION
IS REACHING THE GROUND. IN CONTRAST...SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE BUT THE DRY SUB-CLOUD AIRMASS IS RESULTING IN MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY PUSH SOUTH AFTER SUNSET...
SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED STORM COULD DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA...OR NORTH OF A
MULESHOE TO PADUCAH LINE.  NEXT BIG ISSUE WILL BE MIN TEMPERATURES
FOR TOMORROW MORNING.  WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SKIES CLEARING OUT...THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE MIN TEMPERATURES FALL TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL
STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT WHILE WRAP
AROUND CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
THAT TAKES PLACE.  HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED
CLOSELY THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SEE IF ANY KIND OF FREEZE/FROST
ADVISORIES NEED TO BE ISSUED.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL START OFF OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST BUT GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY.  COOLER
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  WIND SPEEDS MAY PUSH UP INTO THE
BREEZY RANGE MIDDAY BUT THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE STUBBORN UA LOW THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS MENTIONED PER THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TOMORROW NIGHT. FORECAST
MODELS HINT AT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MORE SO ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS SKIRTING THE NERN ZONES DUE TO PROGGED DRY LOW LEVEL
SOUNDINGS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AS UA RIDGING
COMMENCE TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...INCREASING HEIGHT FIELDS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SFC
WINDS WILL PROMOTE TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN TO THE CWFA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON /ALBEIT A BIT DIFFUSED/...AND BE SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED ON
THE CAPROCK. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS LOCALES WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO BE RATHER TAMED /AOA 10
KTS/. BY FRIDAY A BROAD PACIFIC UA LOW WILL PROPAGATE NE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...PROMOTING SW FLOW ALOFT AND THUS...A SHARPENED
DRYLINE LOCATED ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK ESCAPEMENT BY THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW ADEQUATE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE. A CAPPING INVERSION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED/BROKEN BY AOA 07/00Z...THUS
TAPPING INTO SFC-BASED CAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG. DECENT CAPE...INVERTED-V
SOUNDING PROFILES AND 20+ KTS OF 0-4KM BULK SHEAR THAT ARE ALIGNED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE...SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH STRONG LEVELS WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
FURTHERMORE...LOCALES WEST OF THE DRYLINE MAY EXPERIENCE BREEZY
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND AS SUCH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK
COULD THEREFORE BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE PRESENCE OF THE DRYLINE WILL COME TO AN END BY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC SYSTEM...PROGGED TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FA. A RELATIVELY WEAK IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
PROMOTE PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY...AS EAST TO NORTHEAST
UPSLOPE SFC WINDS ENSUE. MOISTENING SOUNDING PROFILES...PWATS
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1.00 INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS...COMBINED WITH THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH VALIDATES
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED
DRYING LOW LEVELS ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTH TO THE PANHANDLES. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES AND BECOME DIFFUSED THROUGHOUT TUESDAY...AS EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT PROMOTE ADDITIONAL PRECIP
CHANCES...POSSIBLY ACROSS THE FA. WILL HOWEVER MAINTAIN SILENT POPS
BEYOND SUNDAY ATTM...AS TUESDAY BEING DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST LEAVES
ROOM FOR MODEL GUIDANCE TO CHANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP TO BETWEEN
10 TO 15 ACROSS PORTIONS ON THE CAPROCK/WEST OF THE DRYLINE. 20-FOOT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA...AS TEMPS WARM 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORM. AS A RESULT...MAY
SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON THE CAPROCK...AND THUS
ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS BEYOND A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK MAY BE REQUIRED...IF LATEST MODEL TRENDS DO NOT CHANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  68  41  79  46 /  20  10   0   0   0
TULIA         41  69  42  79  48 /  20  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     43  71  44  80  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     41  73  46  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       43  73  47  80  51 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   38  74  49  83  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    39  74  47  83  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     46  72  47  78  52 /  20  10  10   0   0
SPUR          47  76  48  81  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     46  79  49  81  54 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

14/29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1131 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

TXZ021>044-041645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1131 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND FAR NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE BUT
MAY STILL PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JORDAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
403 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

TXZ026-032130-
CHILDRESS-
403 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHILDRESS COUNTY...

AT 357 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHILDRESS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 3432 10026 3448 10031 3470 10000 3469 9999
      3456 10000 3456 9999 3433 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 236DEG 8KT 3441 10019

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
431 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

TXZ026-032200-
CHILDRESS-
431 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHILDRESS COUNTY...

AT 428 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CHILDRESS COUNTY...MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT KIRKLAND AND HIGHWAY 287.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 3432 10021 3449 10022 3462 10000 3456 10000
      3456 9999 3431 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 267DEG 11KT 3441 10011

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
548 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

TXZ025-032315-
HALL-
548 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HALL COUNTY...

AT 544 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MEMPHIS...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND LAKEVIEW...MEMPHIS...
PLASKA COMMUNITY AND HIGHWAY 256 IN NORTHERN HALL COUNTY.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 3451 10042 3455 10076 3474 10079 3475 10074
      3475 10042
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 261DEG 9KT 3467 10067