Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Lubbock, TX

635 
WWUS54 KLUB 160114
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
814 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

TXC017-079-219-279-160130-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0216.000000T0000Z-120616T0130Z/
HOCKLEY TX-LAMB TX-COCHRAN TX-BAILEY TX-
814 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
BAILEY...NORTHEASTERN COCHRAN...SOUTHWESTERN LAMB AND NORTHWESTERN
HOCKLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 812 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS 
UP TO 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 
SUDAN TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF PEP...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

AT 805 PM CDT...A WEST TEXAS MESONET SITE NEAR MORTON MEASURED A 
WIND GUST TO 57 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PEP AND SUDAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN LUBBOCK AT 8067451290.

&&

LAT...LON 3403 10281 3413 10245 3373 10246 3372 10282
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 259DEG 23KT 3404 10259 3374 10258

$$

MCZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
718 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION IS BELOW. QUICK UPDATE TO REFINE POPS THIS
EVENING FOR A DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE IN ERN NM. PRECIP CHANCES
ROUGHLY FROM THE ERN SOUTH PLAINS AND POINTS EAST HAVE BEEN DELAYED
UNTIL AFTER 02Z AS THIS REGION EXHIBITS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS SHOWN BY RECENT AMDAR DATA. EMERGING MCS
HOWEVER WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT ENTERS A PROGRESSIVELY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. 23Z SURFACE THETA-E AXIS WAS FOUND
STRETCHING FROM NEAR GUTHRIE NORTHWEST TO TULIA AND EVENTUALLY
VEGA. THIS MOISTURE CORRIDOR WAS SPREADING SLOWLY WEST AND WILL
LIKELY SUSTAIN THE MCS THROUGH LATE EVENING. RECENT SWOMCD
ADDRESSES THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH MINIMAL SHEAR CONSIDERATIONS
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT MAY TEND TO BE MORE LOCALIZED.
HOWEVER...GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS MCS AND
25 KNOTS OF SELY 850MB FLOW PER LBB VWP...WILL CHOOSE TO MAINTAIN
A SEVERE WORDING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 06Z.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. LARGE SQUALL LINE BEGINNING TO EXIT ERN NM AT 00Z WILL LIKELY
IMPACT LBB BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM COMPLEX
REACHING CDS IS MUCH LOWER AND WILL THEREFORE KEEP TSRA MENTION
OUT...BUT THIS THREAT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. OTHERWISE EXPECT
S-SELY WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
SSW TOWARDS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WHICH HAS INDUCED SW FLOW ALOFT.
AN UA RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NE FROM OLD MEXICO TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO THE
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. A SFC TROUGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH A NOTABLE SHARPENING OF THE DRYLINE NEAR
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SINCE
13Z THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN SEEING A NOTABLE LARGE SCALE
DIVERGENT SIGNATURE...THAT HAS TRANSLATED NE FROM OLD MEXICO TO THE
UPPER TRANS-PECOS THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER AOA 00Z. THIS IS OF IMPORTANCE AS NOT ONLY
WILL IT COINCIDE WITH THE DRYLINE DISPLACEMENT...BUT IT WILL ALSO
SERVE AS A AN ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT MECHANISM WHICH WILL AID
IN CI ALONG THE DRYLINE. FURTHERMORE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST
NIGHT/S CONVECTION HAS MOVED SW ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND HAS
RESULTED IN AN AGITATED CU FIELD ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES TO THE
SERN ZONES. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR PRECIP...ESPECIALLY WITH
LARGE SCALE ASCENT NEARING THE AREA. DEEP ABL MIXING ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO HAS RESULTED IN STORMS FIRING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. FORECAST SOLUTION HINTS AT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS /ALONG THE
DRYLINE/ IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH IS EVIDENCE OF BEING
PERFECTLY IN TUNE WITH THE INCOMING LARGE SCALE DIVERGENT SIGNATURE.

AREAS EAST OF THE DRYLINE /THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ WERE ENCOMPASSED BY
AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH A
FEW 70S. SFC-BASED CAPE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...IS PROGGED TO BE IN EXCESSIVE OF 3.0 KJ/KG. COMBINE THIS WITH
INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES AND PWATS AOA 1.00 INCH SUGGESTS THE
PROSPECT FOR LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS /POSSIBLY ANOTHER
HABOOB/...LARGE HAIL /PING PONG SIZED HAIL/ AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK MEAN FLOW. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS A
BIT WEAK /20 KTS/...BUT A VEERING ALBEIT WEAK WIND PROFILE AND LOW
LCL/S /3000-5000 FT/ CAN NOT BE TOTALLY IGNORED. THUS SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME ORGANIZED /POSING A SLIGHT RISK OF A TORNADO OR
TWO/...BUT WILL BE HARD-PRESSED TO SUSTAIN THE ORGANIZATION. BEST
POPS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON...EXTENDING EAST THIS EVENING /MOVING INTO THE BETTER
INSTABILITY/...AND MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NIGHT DUE TO
THE 25-35 KT LLJ BEING CAPABLE OF LINGERING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

TOMORROW...THE UA LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE ITS
WESTWARD RETROGRADE ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
UA RIDGE TO ALSO SHIFT WEST TOWARDS NEW MEXICO. FORECAST MODELS HINT
AT EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT TO PROPAGATE NEAR
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE
WILL ONCE AGAIN LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO THUS
PROVIDING A MESOSCALE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. MEAN FLOW
IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY PROMOTE STORMS
TO DRIFT TOWARDS THE WESTERN ZONES. CONCURRENTLY...THE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. TIER WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TO ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHERE IT
APPEARS TO STALL OUT. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR PANHANDLE STORMS AND
ITS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...DRIFTING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

LONG TERM...
A COMPLEX SLOWLY CHANGING PATTERN SHOULD TRANSITION CLOSER TO
SUMMER CONDITIONS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR WEST EARLY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY DRY THROUGH
THE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER SHOULD ASSIST DRYING OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS
WELL AND WILL SEND AT LEAST ONE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST
BUT IT IS LOOKING MORE DOUBTFUL THAT THIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.

TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WE ARE SEEING WESTWARD MOVING WAVES
IMPACTING MORE AND MORE THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION WHILE A
SADDLE IN THE PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SEEMS LIKE IT
COULD BE EXPLOITED BY THESE WAVES THROUGH LATEST TRENDS DO NOT
ALLOW ANY REAL APPROACH EVEN INTO OUR MOST EASTERN ZONES. BY MID-
WEEK...IT APPEARS A SERIES OF FAIRLY VIGOROUS WAVES IN THE
NORTHERN TIER FINALLY SHOULD CLEAR EAST OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING
FOR AMPLIFICATION OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE CLASSIC FOUR-CORNERS
SUMMER RIDGE WITH MAIN WEST-EAST AXIS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE GENERAL WARM AND SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

ALL-IN-ALL THEN...THIS FORECAST WILL REPRESENT LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE. MODERATELY MOIST INITIALLY WITH WEAKNESS ALOFT ALLOWING
LOW THUNDER CHANCES TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ALSO LATE
SUNDAY. DRY AND HOT EARLY WEEK. SLIGHT MODIFICATION TREND MID TO
LATE WEEK BUT STILL DRY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  90  63  94  64 /  60  20  30  20  20
TULIA         65  90  65  92  65 /  50  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     68  90  66  93  66 /  50  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     66  92  66  95  67 /  60  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       68  92  67  95  68 /  50  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   66  92  65  95  67 /  50  20  30  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  92  66  95  67 /  50  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     71  95  70  97  70 /  20  10  20  20  10
SPUR          71  93  69  95  69 /  20  10  20  20  10
ASPERMONT     73  95  71  97  72 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

TXZ021>044-161645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1141 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO STATE LINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAPROCK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE AND BRING THE RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS TO 65 MPH AND
LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
725 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

TXZ021-027-033-160100-
BAILEY-COCHRAN-PARMER-
725 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COCHRAN...BAILEY AND PARMER
COUNTIES...

AT 725 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
FRIONA TO 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF MORTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SCATTERED INSTANCES OF PENNY SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION...FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS SPREADING INTO WESTERN BAILEY AND
NORTHWEST COCHRAN COUNTIES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3475 10252 3432 10253 3431 10262 3370 10262
      3352 10305 3474 10303
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 239DEG 10KT 3453 10301 3386 10291

MCZ