Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Lubbock, TX

826 
WWUS54 KLUB 150059
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
759 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

TXC107-153-189-303-150145-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0207.000000T0000Z-120615T0145Z/
CROSBY TX-FLOYD TX-HALE TX-LUBBOCK TX-
759 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
LUBBOCK...SOUTHEASTERN HALE...SOUTHWESTERN FLOYD AND NORTHWESTERN
CROSBY COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 756 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP 
TO 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 
FLOYDADA TO IDALOU...AND WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF 
FLOYDADA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE 
HAIL UP TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
 FLOYDADA...LORENZO AND CONE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN LUBBOCK AT 8067451290.

&&

LAT...LON 3400 10126 3377 10132 3358 10157 3370 10175
      3382 10182 3391 10169 3401 10163
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 287DEG 16KT 3399 10133 3365 10162

$$

MCZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ABOUT 30 NM NW OF KLBB IS SENDING AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY WIND SHIFT AT THAT
TERMINAL JUST AFTER 00Z. KCDS TSRA THREAT WILL HOLD OFF FOR A FEW
HOURS IF THE COMPLEX CAN MANAGE TO STAY TOGETHER.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/

SHORT TERM...
RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE ARE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.  SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURFACE TROF/DRYLINE
AXIS IN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.  OFFICE WEBCAM AND MODIFIED
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THAT CLOUD BASES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH
WITH AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING.  INITIALLY...THE STRONGER STORMS
SHOULD BE MAINLY WATCHED FOR DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD
ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE HEADING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHICH PRESENTS AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGER HAIL AS THE STORMS
PUSH EAST INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT.  CLOSER TO LUBBOCK...ONE CELL HAS
TRIED TO CONTINUALLY DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE CITY BUT IT APPEARS
TO NOT BE ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND COULD BE LOCATED JUST
ABOVE THE CAP...INDICATING THAT THERE IS SOME LIFT OVER THE REGION
BUT THE CAP HAS NOT TOTALLY ERODED OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS.

EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION REMAIN PRETTY SCATTERED EARLY ON AND BE
DRIVEN INITIALLY BY THE DRYLINE WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT AND EARLY STORM
MOTIONS DETERMINED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND
DEVELOPMENT.  ENOUGH SHEAR IS PRESENT TO PROVIDE FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION AS THE STORMS MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.  FOR
TONIGHT...UPPED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE LOW END OF
CHANCE AND THEN KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  WILL
ALSO GO AHEAD AND MENTION DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCH BUT DRY ENVIRONMENT YESTERDAY
MAY RESULT IN DUSTY OUTFLOW HEADING TOWARDS THE I-27
CORRIDOR/LUBBOCK LATER THIS EVENING.

POPS SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE
DECREASES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.  UNDERCUT GUIDANCE MIN
TEMPS QUITE A BIT AS THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING 5-9 DEGREES TOO WARM
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  DAY SHOULD START OFF DRY WITH A FEW
REMNANT HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION.  TOMORROW AFTERNOON  MAY BE A
REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE DRYLINE PUSHING CLOSE TO THE STATE LINE AND
THEN DEEP MIXING HELPING TO ERODE THE CAP RESULTING IN HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...EVENTUALLY PUSHING EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
AN UL DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...IS
PROGGED TO RETROGRADE SSW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOMORROW NIGHT
THUS INDUCING SW FLOW ALOFT. SFC TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL PROMOTE A DRYLINE TO NEAR THE TEXAS NEW MEXICO BORDER DURING
THE SAID PERIOD...WHILE CONCURRENTLY AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BE THE SYNOPTIC SPARK TO INITIATE STORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT A BIT OF
CIN BEING PRESENT...IT APPEARS TO BE OVERCOME BY ADEQUATE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS
SHOWN VIA THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
ON THE CAPROCK. IF STORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP...SOUNDING PROFILES
EXHIBITING AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE...A VEERING WIND PROFILE
AND SFC-BASED CAPE OF 1.5-2.0 KG/KG...SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

SATURDAY A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN U.S. TIER...TO NEAR/ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BEFORE
RETREATING NORTH. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE /AND FARTHEST SOUTH
WITH THE FRONT/ AS IT DEVELOPS A COMPLEX ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND IT
BRUSHES THE FAR SERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
EVOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER AS COMPARED TO OTHER SOLUTIONS THUS CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT INCREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
APPEARS MORE LIKELY ATTM. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS
AN UA RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL INDUCE ABOVE NORM TEMPS /LOWER TO MID 90S/. WITH THE DRYLINE
LINGERING NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER ON SATURDAY AND UPSLOPE
SFC WINDS PERSISTING EAST OF THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL PROMOTE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S...THE NAM...ECMWF AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS DEVELOP PRECIP ALONG THE DRYLINE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. ONE
MITIGATING FACTOR COMES TO PLAY AND THAT IS WEAK MEAN FLOW WHICH MAY
PROVE DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO MAKE IT TO THE CWA. HOWEVER...SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IS VALID WITH SEVERE
INDICES SIMILAR TO TOMORROW NIGHT INDICATING HAIL AND WIND THE
PRIMARY THREATS /SFC-BASED CAPE IS PROJECTED TO BE GREATER WITH
VALUES OF AOA 3.0 KJ/KG/. SUNDAY...THE UA RIDGE RETROGRADES SW TO
NEAR THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA AND AS SUCH...THE DRYLINE SHIFTS TO
CENTRAL/WESTERN NEW MEXICO. ONE WOULD THINK THAT BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER NW FLOW ALOFT TAKES SHAPE
AND MEAN FLOW IS A BIT STRONGER. AS A RESULT...FORECAST SOLUTIONS
DISPLAY PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.

MODEL RUNS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING WHAT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL BE FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS DIFFER FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. IT IS SHOWN THAT UA RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...WITH A NOTABLE UA DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE HINTS OF CONVECTION BREAKING OUT
JUST ESE OF THE CWA THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...WITH
PERHAPS ONLY INCREASING CLOUDINESS OCCURRING OFF THE CAPROCK. WILL
THEREFORE MAINTAIN SILENT POPS BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NOW...AS THE
DESIRE TO ANALYZE FUTURE MODELS FOR CONSISTENCY IS WARRANTED. THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH MAY ONCE AGAIN MOVE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COLD FRONT TO ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        59  95  63  90  62 /  40  30  20  20  20
TULIA         62  94  66  91  64 /  30  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     63  94  69  91  65 /  30  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     64  97  67  92  65 /  40  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       66  96  69  93  66 /  30  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   64  98  66  92  65 /  40  30  30  20  20
BROWNFIELD    64  98  67  92  65 /  30  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     69  95  71  95  69 /  20  10  10  10  20
SPUR          69  96  70  93  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     69  97  73  95  70 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1106 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

TXZ021>044-151615-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1106 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS CONCERN THAT WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
FORM THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE SOME SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
OWING TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL
COME FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
604 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

TXZ027-142330-
BAILEY-
604 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST-CENTRAL BAILEY COUNTY...

AT 602 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EAST-CENTRAL BAILEY COUNTY...OR ABOUT 10
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MULESHOE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. ANOTHER RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING STORM WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THIS STORM NEAR
NEEDMORE...ALSO MOVING EAST.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS UP TO 1/2 INCH ARE LIKELY WITH BOTH
OF THESE STORMS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE
STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3425 10262 3401 10261 3401 10288 3415 10289
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 249DEG 9KT 3409 10281

MCZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
653 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N HALE CENTER         34.08N 101.84W
06/14/2012  M65 MPH          HALE               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200318

JWJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
711 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S PLAINVIEW           34.18N 101.72W
06/14/2012  M67 MPH          HALE               TX   MESONET

            WEST TEXAS MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200319

JWJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
712 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW PLAINVIEW          34.21N 101.75W
06/14/2012  E65 MPH          HALE               TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200320

JWJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
717 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

TXZ029-030-034>036-150045-
CROSBY-FLOYD-HALE-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-
717 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HOCKLEY...LUBBOCK...CROSBY...HALE
 AND FLOYD  COUNTIES...

AT 711 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR THE LEADING
EDGE OF A HABOOB...OR INTENSE DUST STORM...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 14 MILES WEST OF FLOYDADA TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF ABERNATHY TO 18
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ABERNATHY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  RAPID
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  THIS
WILL IMPACT THE CITY OF LUBBOCK BETWEEN 715 PM AND 730 PM.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS HABOOB GENERATING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3415 10118 3384 10123 3345 10158 3343 10206
      3364 10227 3391 10180 3415 10151
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 327DEG 22KT 3390 10156 3371 10179
          3362 10205

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
719 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 ENE ABERNATHY         33.87N 101.77W
06/14/2012  M63 MPH          HALE               TX   MESONET

            WEST TEXAS MESONET REPORT

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200321

JWJ