Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
406 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON PROGRESSING ABOUT AS EXPECTED. TSRA HAS NOW FIRED NW OF
ROSWELL EWD TOWARD MORTON. STILL EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP EWD ALONG
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH...LESS INDICATED BY A WIND DISCONTIUITY NOW THAT
THE OVERALL FLOW HAS BACKED TO THE EAST...BUT STILL EVIDENT IN THE
PRESSURE FIELD AS EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM MORTON TO PLAINVIEW. ALSO
SEEING SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS NERN INTO SERN COLO. FORMER
AREA SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY OR DEVELOP SLOWLY TO THE SE ACROSS THE SRN
ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE THE LATTER AREA MENTIONED IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHWARD AND SHIFT SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME. LACK OF
DECENT SHEAR OR FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A LACK OF
ORGANIZATION INTO MORE THAN MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND AS SUCH WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT STILL LOOKS
SMALL WITH PULSE TYPE SVR OWING TO HEALTHY CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR. RAIN
CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH PROXIMITY OF MID-UPPER
TROUGH. THAT TROUGH AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMPT ADDITIONAL
TSRA TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN HOURS. HARD TO SEE MUCH FOCUS
FOR STORMS ALTHOUGH WILL SEE THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT SLIPPED INTO
THE AREA TODAY BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTN.
CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO BE JUSTIFIED. CAPE VALUES LIKELY TO BE LESS
THAN TODAY WITH FCST TEMPS A GOOD FIVE TO TEN DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LOCATION OF BEST LIFT AND PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN LOWER THAN
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE INTO THE EXTENDED. MODELS IN GENERAL OVERALL
AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING AS SHORTWV ENERGY IS CUT
OFF UNDERNEATH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTH CENTRAL
U.S. TUE THROUGH WED TIME FRAME. NAM IS FASTER ON DROPPING UPPER
LOW SOUTH INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX. GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE SLOWER
IN DRIFTING THE CUTOFF LOW SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TX BY THU. MODELS
ALSO HAVING TROUBLE DEALING WITH LOW LEVEL FEATURES AS SFC TROUGH
WHICH HAS BEEN A FOCUS IN SHORT TERM REMAINS IN THE GENARAL AREA
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.

EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH THIS PATTERN
HOLDING MOISTURE IN PLACE BENEATH UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING EAST
WITH TIME. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT FAIRLY WIDEPSREAD CHANCE POPS GOING
THROUGH WED WITH AREA CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LOW MOST FAVORED. WITH
TIME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO WRAP INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES BY LATE WEEK. AS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS RESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO WESTERN NM NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR SOME ACTIVITY
WORKING SOUTHEAST FROM HIGHER TERRAIN AS LONG AS AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...AT LEAST INTO THU. DRYLINE BEGINS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF FRI ACROSS ERN NM AS SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
ALTHOUGH POPS BEYOND FRI ARE BELOW 15% SOME ISOLD DRYLINE
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES INTO THU WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...UPSLOPE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRI AND
GAIN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY BACK TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING MUCH WARMER H8
AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  82  58  83  60 /  40  30  30  20  20
TULIA         65  82  59  82  60 /  40  30  30  30  20
PLAINVIEW     64  84  61  82  62 /  40  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     64  87  62  84  64 /  30  30  40  20  20
LUBBOCK       66  87  64  84  65 /  40  40  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   64  86  63  89  66 /  30  30  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    65  88  64  85  66 /  40  30  40  20  20
CHILDRESS     69  89  64  84  65 /  40  30  30  40  30
SPUR          69  86  65  83  65 /  50  40  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     69  88  65  86  68 /  50  40  40  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

07/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

TXZ021>044-051630-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1130 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
COMBINE WITH ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
300 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

TXZ027-028-033-034-042015-
BAILEY-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LAMB-
300 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COCHRAN...HOCKLEY...LAMB AND
BAILEY COUNTIES...

AT 254 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF MORTON...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 3363 10282 3395 10295 3403 10262 3376 10249
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 070DEG 8KT 3383 10275

JW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
319 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

TXZ027-033-042045-
BAILEY-COCHRAN-
319 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COCHRAN  AND BAILEY COUNTIES...

AT 313 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF MORTON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 3391 10304 3397 10277 3375 10262 3354 10298
      3373 10305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 059DEG 10KT 3382 10279

TXC101-042230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
500 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTY
IN NORTHWEST TEXAS
     COTTLE

AT 432 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF SWEARINGEN...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.
THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL.