Heat Advisory 7, NWS St. Louis, MO

Madison County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Boone County, MO, Callaway County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Cole County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Iron County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Madison County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Osage County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Warren County, MO, Washington County, MO

938 
WWUS73 KLSX 012358
NPWLSX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
658 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

ILZ079-100>102-MOZ041-047>051-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-020100-
/O.EXP.KLSX.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120802T0000Z/
RANDOLPH IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-BOONE MO-
MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-WASHINGTON MO-
ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHESTER...EDWARDSVILLE...BELLEVILLE...
COLUMBIA...JEFFERSON CITY...ST CHARLES...UNION...ST LOUIS...
FARMINGTON
658 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. HEAT INDEX
VALUES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 100 DEGREES AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
COOL THIS EVENING.

$$

MILLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
337 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
CONTINUING TO WATCH THE HEAT...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.  NAM IS
FORECASTING 850MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 23C ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY...AND THE AIR MAY NOT BE AS DRY AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT.  AM FORECASTING TEMPS NEAR THE HOT
MET MOS SINCE IT'S BEEN VERIFYING MUCH MORE ACCURATELY THAN THE MAV
THIS SUMMER.  WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY THRU
CENTRAL...EAST CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INCLUDING THE STL
METRO AS WELL AS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.  ONLY DAMPER ON THE
HEAT TODAY MAY WELL BE SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WHICH
CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE OVER THE OZARKS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...BUT THE
RAP AND NAM ARE WEAKEN THE 850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE
OZARKS AFTER 12Z WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THESE SHOWERS DYING OFF.

HAVE MADE ONLY COSMETIC TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY.  ALL
GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO/MONTANA
ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AND ON INTO TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY.  OF COURSE THE GFS BLOWS UP A
TON OF CONVECTION WHICH FEEDS BACK AND REALLY STRENGTHENS THE
SHORTWAVE...PRODUCING SOME TRULY EYE-POPPING QPF OVER THE OZARKS
THURSDAY NIGHT.  NEEDLESS TO SAY THAT GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND GENERAL UNRELIABILITY OF THE GFS RIGHT NOW I AM
STICKING CLOSER TO MORE CONSERVATIVE NAM/ECMWF FORECAST.

REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL...THE SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
A BIT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO COOL A LITTLE FOR
FRIDAY.  THE NAM KEEPS 850MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 25C OVER THE
AREA...BUT THAT MIGHT BE A BIT TOO WARM.  THINK THE ECMWF MAY BE
MORE REALISTIC WITH 20-22C SO WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW 100 FOR FRIDAY
AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND RETREATING UPPER RIDGE AND MAYBE EVEN SOME LINGERING
MORNING SHOWERS.

CONTINUING TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING LATE SATURDAY.  HOT TEMPS OF 95-100
STILL LOOK REASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP.
NOT YET READY TO GO HIGHER ON POPS DUE TO THE DROUGHT AND POTENTIAL
LACK OF MOISTURE...BUT THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS QUITE STRONG SO AN
INCREASE IN POPS MAY BE NECESSARY AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SWD TO JUST S OF COU AND STL THIS
EVNG.  DO NOT SEE MUCH CLOUD COVER THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A SFC
RIDGE BUILDS INTO ERN MO FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEHIND THE
WEAK COLD FRONT...MAY BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WEAK N-NELY SFC
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO AN E-NELY DIRECTION LATE TGT. SFC WIND
WILL BE MAINLY ELY ON WED ALBEIT FAIRLY WEAK...THEN E-SELY WED
EVNG. COULD NOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED FOG AT SUS LATE TGT/EARLY WED
MRNG DUE TO A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ALONG WITH RELATIVELY HIGH
SFC DEWPOINTS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...NELY SFC WIND SHOULD VEER AROUND TO AN ELY
DIRECTION WED MRNG...THEN TO A SELY DIRECTION WED NGT...WITH
HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS OF ONLY 7-8 KTS. LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...
MAY BE SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ON WED AND WED NGT.

GKS

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED AUG 01 2012

RECORD HIGHS TODAY

      RECORD   YEAR
STL    104     1970
COU    108     1980
UIN    103     1945

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOONE
     MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
     IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-MONITEAU MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
     OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST.
     LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-
     WASHINGTON MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MADISON IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
343 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-011200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
343 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ONE OR TWO OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA INTO
EARLY EVENING. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL BE NEAR 105
DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER PARTS OF
THE REGION INTO SATURDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

BRITT