Areal Flood Warning 5, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
652 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

ISOLATED-SCATTERED MID LEVEL BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WAA. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THESE WILL HOLD
TOGETHER THROUGH AROUND 15Z OR SO AND THEN SHOULD DISSIPATE. THE
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED COVERAGE.

GLASS

&&

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
(TODAY)

THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH HAS IMPACTED SOUTH CENTRAL IL DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS WEAKENING AND MOVING EASTWARD IN CONCERT WITH
THE VEERING LLJ AND THE EWD MIGRATION OF THE UPPER VORTEX THROUGH IL
INTO INDIANA. THE FEW REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
OVER BEFORE 12Z. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT
A MINIMUM AT DAYBREAK WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THIS CLOUD
COVER SHOULDNT BE ENOUGH TO HAMPER ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET GUSTY BY MID-LATE MORNING AND H85 TEMPS
RISE TO AROUND +12 TO +14 DEGC DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE
HIGHS OVER THE LAST 3-4 DAYS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS FROM
AROUND 80-84 FOR THE CWA.

GLASS

&&

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NERN
AND CNTRL MO AS A SW FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVES NEWD INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE NAM MODEL DEPICTS K INDICES INCREASING INTO THE MIDDLE
30S OVER CNTRL MO BY 06Z MON...INDICATING INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ON MON IN CONTINUED ABNORMALLY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE FOR MID-LATE MARCH...ALTHOUGH THE BEST THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN W OF OUR
AREA ON MON AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PLAINS. A
SRN STREAM...SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MON
NGT IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES
INTO THE SRN PLAINS. A N-S BAND OF CONVECTION MAY SLOWLY SHIFT
EWD INTO NERN AND CNTRL MO MON NGT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG SLY LOW
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE 850 MB TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE NWD INTO OUR AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EWD THROUGH TX ON TUE THROUGH WED. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE SOME VARIATIONS IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE SLOW MOVING
BAND OF CONVECTION AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN PORTION OF OUR AREA AND BRING THE THREAT
FOR FLOODING BEGINNING MON NGT OR TUE AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST
WED OR WED NGT. FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WRN MO. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE HEAVY RAIN...FOR
NOW WILL JUST ISSUE AN ESF...HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR NERN AND
CNTRL MO TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS MON NGT THROUGH WED. WILL ALSO SEE
SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES OVER THE WRN PORTION OF OUR AREA
TUE AND WED...MAINLY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THIS AREA. THIS N-S BAND OF
CONVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT E OF OUR AREA ON THU AS THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE NEWD THROUGH ERN OK. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF MO AND IL AS THE UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
MOVE EWD THROUGH SRN MO ON THU NGT AND FRI. COOLER TEMPERATUES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES JUST S OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED RATHER
QUICKLY WITHIN THE LAST HOUR ACROSS CENTRAL MO. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN EXPANDING AREA OF VFR CIGS FROM AROUND 5000-8000 FT...AND
ARE MOVING TO THE ENE. I HAVE ADDED VICINITY TO ALL BUT KUIN FOR
THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. IF THEY ACTUALLY IMPACT THE TERMINAL...THE
LONGEVITY SHOULD BE SHORT BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE. BY
15-16Z I THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE DISSIPATED OR BE
DISSIPATING.THEREAFTER EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED CU AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOWERING VFR CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
AND MAYBE EVEN THUNDER AT KCOU PRIOR TO DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...

ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED RATHER
QUICKLY WITHIN THE LAST HOUR ACROSS CENTRAL MO. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN EXPANDING AREA OF VFR CIGS FROM AROUND 5000-8000 FT...AND
ARE MOVING TO THE ENE. I HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
16Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. IF THEY ACTUALLY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL...THE LONGEVITY SHOULD BE SHORT BASED ON THE CURRENT
RADAR COVERAGE. BY 15-16Z I THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
DISSIPATED OR BE DISSIPATING.THEREAFTER EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CU AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LOWERING VFR CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

GLASS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
515 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-191015-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
515 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WORKS INTO THE REGION.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
221 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 AM     HAIL             LITCHFIELD              39.18N  89.66W
03/18/2012  M0.25 INCH       MONTGOMERY         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FGLASS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
736 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 AM     FLOOD            CUBA                    38.06N  91.40W
03/18/2012                   CRAWFORD           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A NUMBER OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS AROUND CUBA WERE STILL
            FLOODED

&&

FGLASS