Areal Flood Advisory 9, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
712 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

SEVERE STORM WATCH 197 HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITH ALL SEVERE
STORM ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO TORNADO WATCH 199 JUST SE OF STL
CITY. SEVERE STORMS SHOULD EXIT OR WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BELOW SVR
LIMITS BY 830 PM OR SO...AND UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES...ANTICIPATE
AN EARLY CANCELLATION OF WATCH BY THAT TIME.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012
(TONIGHT)

SFC MAP AT 21Z SHOWS WEAK WAVE OF LO PRES OVER THE WRN SUBURBS OF
SAINT LOUIS WITH A CDFNT TRAILING SWWD NEAR I-44 CORRIDOR IN
MISSOURI AND A WRMFNT THAT HAS BECOME QSTNRY EXTENDING EWD NEAR
THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN ILLINOIS. BKN-OVC CLOUD COVER EXISTS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA LIMITING INSOLATION...BUT TEMPS STILL MANAGED TO
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S FOR AREAS S OF INTERSTATE 70...WHILE ONLY
60S WERE ATTAINED IN NERN MO AND W CNTRL IL. A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER
IN SRN KS EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS SLIPPED E ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR THE SFC-FRONTAL ZONE WITH A SEVERE SUPERCELL THAT HAS DROPPED
VERY LARGE HAIL THRU THE NRN AND ERN STL METRO AREA AND HAS NOW
PUSHED INTO FAR ERN SECTIONS OF THE METRO AREA NEAR BELLEVILLE.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THRU EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT ALG-SE OF THE CDFNT. THIS CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE VERY SLOWLY SEWD AND EVENTUALLY STALL IN SERN MO AND SRN IL
LATER TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED THERE
LATER TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO SHOOT NEWD
INTO CNTRL-NERN MO LATE.

TES

&&

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)

UPPER LEVEL TROF IN WRN CONUS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT SW FLOW
OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THRU THURSDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES. THIS COUPLED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR SFC WAVES
MOVING THRU DURING THIS TIME WILL GIVE US A WET PERIOD THRU MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WITH FEW PERIODS OF DRY WX. IT WILL BE EASIER TO TALK
ABOUT THE FEW DRY PERIODS...WITH ONE EXPECTED FROM LATE TUESDAY
THRU LATE WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN NEAR AVERAGE...BUT WITH A WARM
SECTOR SETUP BEGINNING ON LATE TUESDAY...LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WITH MAXES IN THE 80S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL EXIT NEXT COUPLE HOURS BUT WILL LEAVE
REMNANT SHRA IN ITS WAKE FOR A BIT. SETTING OF SUN SHOULD RESULT
IN LESS ACTIVITY OF SCT SHRA IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN SEVERE STORMS
BUT NEW ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP TO THE SW AND MOVE IN
DURING SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU THE EARLY-MID AFTN HOURS.
LO CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO
OUR S AND AS THIS FRONT RETURNS N AS A WRMFNT...SHOULD SEE CIGS
LOWER TO ITS N LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT
IFR CIGS FOR I-70 CORRIDOR SITES BUT DID PLACE IN KUIN TAF WHERE
IT WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO DEVELOP AND LOWER. IMPROVEMENT WILL COME
WITH WRM FROPA.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...NEXT ROUND OF TSRA TO COME IN JUST N OF
WRMFNT DURING LATE SUNDAY MORNING-MIDDAY. LOWER CIGS...POTENTIALLY
IFR...WILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL AT AND JUST BEFORE WRM FROPA. IN
THEM MEANTIME...LOOK FOR SCT SHRA TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
720 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-291200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
720 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. THROUGH EARLY EVENING...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE
LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBILITY
WITH THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON
CONVECTIVE WATCHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION
CENTER WATCH PRODUCTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS...FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

TES

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