Areal Flood Advisory 32, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
351 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012
(TONIGHT)

A RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEASTERN EVENING AND TONIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH A DEEPENING
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE
CWA BY 06Z TONIGHT...THOUGH THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS IS DELAYED
BEHIND THE FRONT BY AROUND 6 HOURS. THE TROUGH AXIS COMBINED WITH
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300MB JET SHOULD
FAVOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE CWA...10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)

DRY...COOL...AND TRANQUIL WEATHER IS ON TAP AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
ANOTHER FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...IMPACTING THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO ASIDE FROM A WIND SHIFT...IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE MINIMAL. BY MONDAY MORNING...AN 850MB RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE OVER THE CWA AND WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN VEER TO THE
SOUTH...WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING BY MIDWEEK. COULD
SEE SOME CHANGES ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SINK INTO THE REGION...THOUGH HAVE ONLY
CHOSEN TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL THE MODELS CAN GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM. OVERALL...NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS PACKAGE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

JP

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM FAR CORNER OF SE IOWA TO JUST
SOUTH OF A KIRKSVILLE TO KANSAS CITY LINE. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 20Z WHEN
ITS LOCATION WILL BE SOUTH OF KUIN AND NORTH OF KCOU-KSTL. HAVE
TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED WITH INITIAL COLD FROPA AND MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. CLEARING
EXPECTED FROM NORTH-SOUTH TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-13
KTS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...

EXPECTING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AN ENCROACHING
COLD FRONT IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IN THE 20-23Z TIME FRAME. THE
TEMPO GROUP ACCOUNTS FOR THIS BUT CONDITIONS COULD BE WORSE WITH
THE THUNDER...ESPECIALLY STRONG WINDS. LOOKING FOR FROPA AROUND
23Z WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-13 KTS.

GLASS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
359 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-081200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
359 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A SPRINGFIELD ILLINOIS TO COLUMBIA
MISSOURI LINE. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

JP

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>