Areal Flood Advisory 22, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
401 PM CDT THU AUG 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT THU AUG 2 2012
(TONIGHT)

MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE POPS. MCV CONTINUES TO TRACK ESEWD
THRU THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SFC
BOUNDARY WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE AND SUPPORT FROM THE MCV.  NOT SURE
HOW LONG THESE TSRA WILL REMAIN IN THE CWA AS THE TSRA CONTINUE TO
ROTATE OUT OF THE AREA. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT CHANCES OF PRECIP S OF THE ONGOING STORMS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

WITH CURRENT TSRA DISPLACED FROM THE HIGHER CAPE...BELIEVE ANY
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY LIMITED. LARGER THREAT WILL BE POTENTIAL
FLOODING AS STORMS ARE SLOW TO MOVE. THAT SAID...WITH STORMS FORMING
ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY ENHANCED BY THE MCV...SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS COULD HAVE LONGER LIVED MESOS AND POSE A BRIEF THREAT.

OTHERWISE...TRENDED TEMPS TWD WARMER MOS NUMBERS AS CLOUDS SHUD
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WRN AND NWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHUD CLEAR OUT EARLIER AND HAVE TRENDED TEMPS
COOLER IN THOSE AREAS.

TILLY

&&

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT THU AUG 2 2012
(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

MDLS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL RIDGE STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. CNTL MO SHUD SEE THE BIGGEST WARM UP FOR THE
CWA...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO NEAR 70 DEGREES...HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 105 ALONG THE MO RIVER INTO
SW IL. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR FRI AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THIS HEADLINE DOES NOT COME WITHOUT QUESTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY. MDLS
INDICATE THIS MCV WILL LAY OUT A BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE MIS RIVER
FOR FRI STRETCHING INTO SE MO OR SRN IL. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE ENUF OF A FOCUS TO INITIATE TSRA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE REGION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EVEN IF TSRA DO DEVELOP...ADV AREA SHUD STILL
HAVE MORE THAN ENUF TIME FOR TEMPS TO WARM TO NEAR THE CENTURY MARK.

MDLS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A RATHER STRONG CDFNT
PUSHING INTO THE REGION LATE SAT. MDLS ALSO SUGGEST A WEAK S/W JUST
AHEAD OF THE FNT. MAIN QUESTION WITH THIS S/W WILL BE HOW MUCH...IF
ANY...CLOUD COVER OR PRECIP IT WILL PRODUCE. LATEST MDL SOLNS
SUGGEST AREA AHEAD OF THE CDNFT WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE STRONG
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND KEEPS THE REGION CAPPED.

HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE S/W WILL DEVELOP A THICK
MID CLOUD OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY HINDER HEATING
SOMEWHAT. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPS MAY BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO
NEARLY 100. HAVE KEPT THE WARM TREND FOR SAT GOING. WHILE THE GOING
FORECAST WUD SUGGEST THE HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUING INTO SAT...TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY THAT FAR RIGHT NOW.

FOR THE EXTD...SFC RIDGE SHUD BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUN AND MON
WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 16C. MDLS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING MASS FIELDS. MDLS SUGGEST THERMAL RIDGE
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA BY TUES WITH TEMPS PUSHING THE CENTURY
MARK AGAIN...BUT TEMPS SHUD COOL AGAIN ON WED AS ANOTHER S/W DROPS
INTO THE REGION WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS S/W MAY SUPPORT
SOME PRECIP...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU AUG 2 2012

SE PROPAGATING MCV IS BEGINNING TO PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERRED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE JUST RECENTLY AFFECTED KSUS AND ARE
NEARING KSTL CURRENTLY. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON IS
STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. GREATEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS ORIENTED
FROM METRO ST. LOUIS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH
MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH MCV COMING IN THIS AFTERNOON
FROM W TO E. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY AT LEAST THIN OUT AND POSSIBLY
BECOME CLEAR BEHIND MCV. MOST LIKELY AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD STAY TO THE S/SSE OF TERMINALS WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS COMMENCING LATE THIS EVENING.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...

SE PROPAGATING MCV IS BEGINNING TO PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERRED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING KSTL. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. GREATEST AXIS OF
INSTABILITY IS ORIENTED FROM METRO ST. LOUIS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AT LAMBEERT FIELD WITH MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH MCV COMING IN SHORTLY FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY THIN OUT THIS EVENING BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV. MOST
LIKELY AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD STAY TO THE
S OF KSTL WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BEGINNING THIS EVENING.

GOSSELIN

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE
     MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-JEFFERSON
     MO-LINCOLN MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-
     PIKE MO-RALLS MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS
     MO-WARREN MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR CALHOUN IL-JERSEY
     IL-MADISON IL-MONROE IL-ST. CLAIR IL.

&&

WFO LSX

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
409 PM CDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 S CARRINGTON          38.74N  92.06W
08/02/2012  E40 MPH          CALLAWAY           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TTRAINED SPOTTTER REPORTED ESTIMATED 35 TO 45 MPH WIND
            SURFACE GUSTS.

&&

PRZYBYLINSKI

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