Small Craft Advisory 77, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1127 PM PDT WED JUN 20 2012

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY AND
SPREAD OVERNIGHT CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE...FROM THE BEACHES TO SOME
VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND AREAS FROM SANTA BARBARA NORTHWARD INTO
SATURDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL INTO MONDAY WITH THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...THE MARINE LAYER WAS NEAR 1200 FT DEEP
AT LAX THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO 1500 FT OVERNIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS WERE ALONG MANY PORTIONS OF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND ARE
FORECAST TO EXPAND FURTHER ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND TO THE
ADJACENT VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY BY
LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY W TO SW WINDS IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA THRU TONIGHT...THEN
GRADUALLY MOVE E THRU THU AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE E
PAC. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO CA THU NIGHT AND FRI...THEN
LINGER OVER THE AREA THRU SAT. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THRU SAT. THE MARINE LAYER PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS
WELL...WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
FOR MOST OF THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR THE SBA S
COAST. IN ADDITION...PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE
L.A./VTU COAST/VLYS WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SALINAS RIVER VALLEY LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING AS WELL. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THRU
SAT. THE FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY ONSHORE THRU SAT...EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD
OF WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW POSSIBLE LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES...AND THE MTNS OF VTU COUNTY. GUSTY NW
WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON FRI AND SAT FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...
WITH GUSTY W TO SW WINDS IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY EACH DAY THRU SAT.
GUSTY N CANYON WINDS POSSIBLY APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS SHOULD
AFFECT THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS THU EVENING AND FRI EVENING. TEMPS
THRU SAT ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE MOST PART EACH DAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW REMAINING PARKED OVER OREGON THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION...AND BREEZY BUT WEAKER
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OVER THE FAVORED AREAS. THE MARINE LAYER AND
STRATUS ARENT GOING AWAY ANYTIME SOON...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN MOST
COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS EACH MORNING. DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH LIKELY STEADYING OUT NEXT
WEEK...LEFT THE FORECAST DRIZZLE-FREE PAST SATURDAY.

EVENTUALLY THIS LOW WILL HAVE TO MOVE...AND EXTENDED MODELS AND MOST
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREE THAT THE BIG MOVE WILL HAPPEN LATE MONDAY
OR TUESDAY. ONCE THIS HAPPENS...THE MONSTER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES SHOULD NUDGE WESTWARD...AND BRING SOME WARMING AND A RETURN
TO MORE NORMAL CONDITIONS. AGAIN...BEING JUNE...THE MARINE LAYER
WITH ITS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD NOT BE AFFECT AND LOOKS HERE TO
STAY.

&&

.AVIATION...20/0627Z.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR
THROUGH 11Z...THEN LIFT INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF VLIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH 14Z. THERE IS A PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR
CONDITIONS AT VALLEY TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z. COASTAL
TERMINALS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR TO VFR CONDITIONS...LIKELY
OCCURRING BETWEEN 19Z AND 22Z. A LATER RETURN OF IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

KLAX...IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
THROUGH 14Z. KLAX WILL CLEAR TO VFR BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z. A RETURN OF
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z.

KBUR...IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
THROUGH 14Z. THERE IS A PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT VALLEY
TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. A LATER RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...SIRARD/KITTELL
AVIATION...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
204 PM PDT WED JUN 20 2012

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-211300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
204 PM PDT WED JUN 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO POSSIBLE GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS AS WELL AS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE STRENGTH
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS MAY REDEVELOP SATURDAY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

* GALE WATCH...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.