Small Craft Advisory 32, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PST MON MAR 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
CAUSING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AS WELL AS
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL BE MARKED BY A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WARMING TREND. BY
FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS. COOLING TO FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...NOT ANTICIPATING AN EVENING UPDATE AT
THIS TIME. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS INITIALIZED MOVING ASHORE WITH
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING. GUIDANCE WAS REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EXPECT MINOR
CHANGES TO THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST. CHANGES MAY INCLUDE
WIND ADVISORIES OVER VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS CENTERED
ON TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE DENSE FOG MOVED ASHORE OVER OXNARD
EARLY THIS EVENING AND WAS CURRENTLY SHIFTING SOUTH WITHIN LIGHT
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WINDS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST THOUGH HAVE LIMITED INLAND REACH
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE AS THE APPROACHING COLD SYSTEM
MODIFIES THE TEMPERATURE CURVE AND LIFTS THE STRATUS INLAND.

THE FOLLOWING IS AN EXCERPT FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT

...DENSE FOG AT THE ONSET...AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE BY THE MORNING.

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF
SEATTLE...WILL INTO EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND BRING A MAJOR CHANGE TO THE WEATHER. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET ON TUESDAY...WITH MOST AREAS STRUGGLING TO
GET INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW WILL BRING A VERY
TIGHT NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT...WHICH WILL TEAM UP WITH A MODEST
100KT JET ALOFT AND AMPLE COLD AIR ADVECTION...TO BRING WIDESPREAD
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE REGION. WIND ADVISORIES WERE JUST ISSUED OVER A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH PREVIOUS HIGH WIND AND GALE WARNINGS
STILL IN PLAY. CONTEMPLATED ADDING THE SBA MTNS TO THE WARNING
MIX...BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW AS THE RELIABLE GRADIENT PROGS ARE JUST
NOT UP TO SNUFF. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE WELL TO
OUR EAST...WHICH WILL KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OUT OF OUR
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE A QUICK SHOT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THANKS TO PWATS
AROUND 0.50 INCHES...ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR THOSE LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP AND THOSE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE OVER LA COUNTY WHERE AMPLE
MARINE LAYER MOISTURE COULD INTERACT WITH SOME MODEST PVA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS SYSTEM PRODUCES ANY SEMBLANCE OF A
FRONT...WHICH LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT...POPS AND QPF WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL
START OFF HIGH TUESDAY MORNING (5000-6000 FEET)...THEN RAPIDLY LOWER
BY TUESDAY EVENING TO 2500-3500 FEET.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS INTO NRN ARIZONA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW WILL
SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OVER THE USUAL
AREAS LIKE THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND SBA MTNS...AND MAY REQUIRE WIND
ADVISORIES IN SOME OF THE LA VALLEYS AND THE SANTA MONICA
MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
SLOPES...AND WITH QUICKLY DROPPING SNOW LEVELS DOWN UNDER 3000
FEET...THE GRAPEVINE MAY SEE SOME SNOW STICKING TO THE FREEWAY. ALL
OF THIS SHOULD CALM THINGS DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS...BUT WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE MANY SPOTS INTO THE 30S...AND FROST
ADVISORIES LOOK LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. A HEALTHY 579DM RIDGE
WILL FORM OVER THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
SHARP WARM UP...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S OVER MOST OF THE REGION. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A PATTERN CHANGE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE DETAILS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT. AT THIS
POINT...A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...
USHERING A HEALTHY COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND SOME
SPRINKLING OF CLOUDS. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS SHOWING A
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AFTER SUNDAY...WHICH MAY MEAN
WE COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RAIN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK...OR IT MAY MEAN
NOTHING. STILL TOO EARLY TO GET EXCITED...ESPECIALLY HOW THIS WINTER
HAS GONE THUS FAR.

&&

.AVIATION...

06/0600Z.

SHALLOW 700 FOOT MARINE LAYER WILL BRING LIFR CONDS TO MOST COASTAL
AIRPORTS OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS HOWEVER AS
VIS AND CIGS WILL VARY FREQUENTLY. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
CIGS AND VIS WILL NOT LIFT AS QUICKLY AS FCST. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
STRONG WIND FORECASTS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF UNTIL 16Z. LOOK FOR VARYING CIGS AND
VIS HOWEVER CONDS SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIFR. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE IFR CONDS COULD PERSIST TIL 18Z.

KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1/4SM
FG 11Z-15Z. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS 25 KT AFT 23Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 PM PST MON MAR 5 2012

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-061400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
300 PM PST MON MAR 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT...PRODUCING POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS.

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN CALIFORNIA LATE
TUESDAY. THIS WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS...WITH HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS.
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO GENERATE HIGH SURF...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST BEACHES...WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS...AS WELL
AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH SURF ADVISORY.........SEE WHUS46 KLOX - CFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KITTELL