Small Craft Advisory 129, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
800 PM PST SUN DEC 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...THE CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW KEPT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
6000 FEET TONIGHT AS WELL. GUSTY SW WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

A BROAD NW FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA TONIGHT WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY ON
MON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH THE CA COAST FROM THE E PAC
MON NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUE. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
QUICKLY E AND OUT OF THE STATE TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ON WED. THE MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST
THRU MON WITH MORE CLOUDINESS AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN FOR MANY AREAS...EXCEPT LIGHT RAIN BECOMING LIKELY OVER
SLO/SBA COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
OVER VTU/L.A. COUNTIES MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...ALTHO LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE ABOVE 6000 FEET
THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN FALL TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET ON TUE. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE THRU TUE.

NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUE AFTERNOON
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SUPPORT FOR THE GUSTY WINDS TO SPREAD TO THE VALLEYS
AND POSSIBLY COASTAL AREAS FROM THE SBA COUNTY S COAST THROUGH
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...WHERE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN SOME AREAS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REACHING HIGH
WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH WIND WATCHES
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED WITH THIS EVENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...ALTHO EVENTUAL
HIGH WIND WATCHES CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT FOR THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY AND SBA COUNTY S COAST.

AT ANY RATE...THERE SHOULD BE A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING ON THE N MTN
SLOPES TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THRU WED. TEMPS OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MON THRU WED.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  SKIES WILL CLEAR AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL.  THE CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO COOL QUITE A BIT...THOUGH...AND
COASTAL FOG AND AREAS OF FROST IS LIKELY.  THE NEXT RELATIVELY WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY A SATURDAY EVENT.  THIS SYSTEM MAY REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
THE SERVICE AREA OR POSSIBLY ONLY CLIP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT AT
THIS TIME IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...16/2330Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE CURRENT
TAF PACKAGE ALTHO HI CONFIDENCE THAT PLENTY OF CLOUDS OF VARYING
FLIGHT CATS WILL AFFECT MOST AIRFIELDS. CIGS WILL RANGE FROM IFR TO
MVFR TO VFR AT TIMES DEPENDING ON AIRFIELD. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES HOWEVER ON THE TIMING OF THE VARYING FLIGHT CATS WHICH
COULD BE OFF SEVERAL HOURS. FOR KWJF AND KPMD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY W TO SW WINDS AT THESE AIRFIELDS
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN MON AFTERNOON.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE CURRENT TAF ALTHO THERE IS
HI CONFIDENCE THAT PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD. IT
LOOKS LIKE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU ABOUT 17Z MON...WITH
VFR CIGS 17Z-04Z....FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS AFT ABOUT 04Z. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES MON AFTERNOON. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON THE TIMING OF THE VARYING FLIGHT CATS
WHICH COULD BE OFF SEVERAL HOURS.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE CURRENT TAF ALTHO THERE IS
HI CONFIDENCE THAT PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD. IT
LOOKS LIKE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU ABOUT 18Z MON...WITH
VFR CIGS 18Z-21Z....FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS AGAIN AFT ABOUT 21Z. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS THRU THE DAY MON. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON THE TIMING OF THE VARYING FLIGHT CATS MON
WHICH COULD BE OFF SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TUESDAY MORNING AND BUILD INLAND FOLLOWING A
LANDFALLING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN NEAR SHORE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN TO
GALE FORCE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND A WATCH WAS
ISSUED AND A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER. THE
GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

VERY STEEP SEAS WILL EXIST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS AND TO 12 TO
15 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY AND
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL GENERATE SEAS AROUND 40 FEET. THE FETCH IS
ORIENTED 300-310 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. GUIDANCE
DIFFERED SLIGHTLY ON THE SWELL SIZE AND ARRIVAL TIME. SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND HIGH
SURF IS POSSIBLE ALONG ALL EXPOSED WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING SHORES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE TIDE WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1 FOOT LATE FRIDAY MORNING TO AROUND
3 FEET EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AND TO AROUND 5 FEET EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY EXIST IN THE VICINITY OF
LARGE BREAKERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...SIRARD/KJ
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...FORWOOD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>