Small Craft Advisory 124, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PST TUE NOV 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...BRINGING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...PLENTY OF HI CLOUDS COVERED THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY...ALTHO A FEW LOW CLOUDS PERSISTED ALONG THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
WERE NEAR NORMAL TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE E PAC TONIGHT...
THEN THE TROF ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH QUICKLY THRU
CENTRAL AND SRN CA ON WED. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. IT LOOKS
LIKE RAIN WITH THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES WED
MORNING...THEN SPREAD INTO VTU/L.A. COUNTIES WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GOOD SE TO S FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING
GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES ON WED...AND WIND ADVISORIES
WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE AFTERNOON ZONE PACKAGE.
THE MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK ON PCPN AMOUNTS FROM EARLIER MODEL
RUNS...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR SLO COUNTY. EVEN SO...IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL OF 0.25 TO 1.00 INCH
TO FALL OVER SLO COUNTY THRU WED NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO 2.00 INCHES IN NWRN SLO COUNTY. FOR SBA COUNTY...0.25 TO 0.50
INCH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1.00 INCH ON S
FACING SLOPES OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. FOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH OVERALL CAN BE EXPECTED EXCEPT
PROBABLY LESS THAN 0.05 INCH FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THRU WED NIGHT... GENERALLY ABOVE 7500 FEET.
TEMPS WILL COOL TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION ON
WED.

ON THU...PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A BROAD
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PLENTY OF
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOME AREAS MAY
PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 TO 0.20 INCH OF RAIN. TEMPS FOR THU ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THU NIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER NW SLO COUNTY.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER TROF WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO
SWRN CA ON FRI ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. GUSTY S WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES LATE THU NIGHT AND ON FRI AS WELL.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MOST
PART THRU FRI.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT DURING THE PERIOD. A LONGWAVE UPPER TROF WILL PERSIST OVER
THE E PAC DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH A BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
SRN CA. MOIST SW TO S LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA THRU SAT
NIGHT...BRINING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE LAST
IN A SERIES OF FAST MOVING UPPER TROFS AND SURFACE COLD FRONTS WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SRN CA LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH RAIN LIKELY
IN MANY AREAS. RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AND TURN TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY S TO SW
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES LATE
SAT NIGHT AND SUN...AND MAY ALSO AFFECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU
SUN NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE 7500 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO SRN CA MON AFTERNOON THRU TUE...WITH
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND A DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z.

TODAY IS THE LAST DAY OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT. BY
TONIGHT SOME COASTAL CLOUDS WILL AGAIN GATHER IN COASTAL SECTIONS
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...THE FIRST IN
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST.

KLAX AND KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
MOSTLY MVFR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. KLAX MAY HAVE
ISSUES WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS APPROACHING 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT GALE WATCH WILL BE CONVERTED TO A
GALE WARNING FOR ZONES 670...645 AND 673 VALID EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTH WINDS AHEAD AND ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  FEEL
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR NW PORTION OF ZONE
676 AND WEST PORTION OF ZONE 650 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SWELLS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST WITH LARGEST SWELLS REACHING
10 TO 14 FT BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND LINGERING AROUND 10
FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE INNER WATERS WILL ALSO SEE HIGHER SEAS
WITH SWELLS BETWEEN 6 TO 8 FT AT 12 TO 15 SECOND PERIODS LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 650 WILL PROBABLY
SEE AT LEAST LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...SIRARD
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

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