High Surf Advisory 23, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PST THU DEC 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY. A SERIES
OF COLD FRONTS WILL BRING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION...AND BREEZY
WINDS AT TIMES...AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND
CHRISTMAS DAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SOME WARMING
TO THE AREA...MOSTLY FELT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR
AREAS...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL UNDER SEASONAL NORMALS.
DESPITE THE WARMING...THE VERY DRY AIR AND LACK OF A MARINE LAYER
WILL BRING ONE MORE ROUND OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.
A BORDERLINE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR THE COLDEST
VALLEYS AND THE CENTRAL COAST.

A LARGE 510DM LOW JUST OFF THE WESTERN CANADIAN COAST WILL MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN PUSH TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A LONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE DOWN THE COAST TOMORROW...THEN STALL FOR 12-18 HRS.
WHILE THE CORE OF THE WARM FRONTAL RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE OVER MONTERREY COUNTY...THE FRINGES MAY STRETCH INTO
NORTHERN SLO COUNTY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A LONG PERIOD OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN AND POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS OVER 1 INCH. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE COAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE THE
STALLED RAIN DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL TO ALL AREAS. BUMPED THE POPS
UP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT EVERYWHERE WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE IN
ACCUMULATING RAINS...BUT AMOUNTS OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL COAST
(0.50-1.25 INCHES) SHOULD BE LIGHT (0.10-0.33 INCHES). EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS ON SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL...BUT NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS THANKS TO THE ADDED MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AROUND ON SUNDAY...BUT SOME SUN SHOULD POKE
THROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN...BUT THIS TIME TO
MOST OF THE REGION. AMOUNTS LOOK TO GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 0.50 AND
1.00 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2.00 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SNOW LEVELS WITH BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT VERY LOW...WITH ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY STAYING ABOVE 6000 FEET. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL CLEAR THINGS OUT
AND KEEP ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...ALLOWING FOR GOOD
WEATHER FOR AIRBORNE SLEIGH RIDE DELIVERIES.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-THURSDAY)...
CHRISTMAS DAY IS STILL LOOKING DRY WITH A LITTLE OFFSHORE FLOW AND
MODEST RIDGING ALOFT...WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR AT LEAST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. THE CLEARING LOOKS
BRIEF HOWEVER...AS HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL START STREAMING IN LATE CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET.
TRYING TO TIME THE SYSTEMS TO FOLLOW IS A LITTLE TOO PREMATURE AT
THIS POINT...BUT EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO GET SOME RAIN HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...20/1800Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 10%
CHANCE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE AT COASTAL AND VALLEY
TERMINALS OF LA COUNTY DUE TO GUSTY NE WINDS.

KLAX...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE
THAT EAST WINDS WILL EXCEED 10 KNOTS BETWEEN 18Z-21Z TODAY.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
10% CHANCE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE THROUGH 12Z FRI.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

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